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Article abstract-Objective: One rationale for equating “brain death” (BD) with death is that it reduces the body to a
mere collection of organs, as evidenced by purported imminence of asystole despite maximal therapy. To test this
hypothesis, cases of prolonged survival were collected and examined for factors influencing survival capacity. Methods:
Formal diagnosis of BD with survival of 1 week or longer. More than 12,200 sources yielded approximately 175 cases
meeting selection criteria; 56 had sufficient information for meta-analysis. Diagnosis was judged reliable if standard
criteria were described or physicians made formal declarations. Data were analyzed by means of Kaplan-Meier curves,
with treatment withdrawals as “censored” data, compared by log-rank test. Results: Survival probability over time
decreased exponentially in two phases, with initial half-life of 2 to 3 months, followed a t 1 year by slow decline to more
than 14 years. Survival capacity correlated inversely with age. Independently, primary brain pathology was associated
with longer survival than were multisystem etiologies. Initial hemodynamic instability tended to resolve gradually; some
patients were successfully discharged on ventilators to nursing facilities or even t o their homes. Conclusions: The
tendency to asystole in BD can be transient and is attributable more to systemic factors than to absence of brain function
per se. If BD is to be equated with death, it must be on some basis more plausible than loss of somatic integrative unity.
NEUROLOGY 1998;51:1538-1545
The equivalence of “brain death” (BD) with death is inexorably and imminently deteriorate to cardiovas-
one of the few bioethical issues of this decade consid- cular collapse despite the most aggressive therapy
ered relatively settled.l(P115) (Together with Veatch? I and resuscitative efforts. The BD literature, right up
prefer to place “brain death” in quotation marks on to the present, is replete with statements to this
account of its semantic ambig~ity.~ For purposes of effect,16-21
such as the following (emphases added):
this paper, the term will be taken to mean “whatever Even with extraordinary medical care, these [somatic]
most people understand by the term ‘brain death’ functions cannot be sustained indefinitely-typically,
[with whatever ambiguity and inconsistency that en- no longer than several days (President’s Commission)
tails] ,” or equivalently, “a clinical neuropathologic (p. 351.13
state fulfilling official diagnostic algorithms and le- Despite all efforts to maintain the donor’s circulation,
gally equated with death in most jurisdictions [re- irreversible cardiac arrest usually occurs within 48 to 72
gardless of the rationale for, or validity of, that hours of brain death in adults, although it may take as
equation].”) What has been settled, however, is long as 10 days in children. Indeed, general acceptance
merely statutory definition and diagnostic proto- of the concept of brain death depended on this close
C O ~ S . ’ , ~Beneath
~~ this superficial consensus there is temporal association between brain death and cardiac
tremendous confusion about the fundamental ratio- arrest (p. 816).22
nale for equating the death of one particular organ What was clearly established in the early 1980s was
with death of the entire o r g a n i ~ m .In ~ the
~ ~ United
~~-~~ that no patient in apneic coma declared brain dead ac-
States and most other countries where a quasi- cording to the very stringent criteria of the United King-
official rationale has been articulated, the rationale dom code . . . had ever failed to develop asystole within a
is that the brain is the “central integrator” or “criti- relatively short time. That fundamental insight remains
cal organ” of the body, and its destruction or irre- as valid today as it was 20 years ago-and not only in
versible nonfunction entails a loss of somatic the United Kingdom but throughout the world (preface
integrative unity, a thermodynamic “point of no re- to second edition).23
turn,” a literal “dis-integration”of the organism as a It is important t o distinguish between this line of
~hole.lJ~-~~ reasoning and a conflation of prognosis of eventual
One line of evidence usually cited is that BD bod- death with diagnosis of present death. As David
ies cannot be maintained indefinitely; rather, they Lamb eloquently explained:
From the Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neurology, UCLA Medical School, Los Angeles, CA.
Received September 3, 1997.Accepted in final form July 17, 1998.
Address correspondence and reprint requests to D. Alan Shewmon, MD, Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neurology, UCLA Medical Center, MDCC
22-474,Box 951752,Los Angeles, CA 90095-1752.
1538 Copyright 0 1998 by the American Academy of Neurology
When evidence is cited to show that, despite the most port, miscellaneous details (e.g., pregnancy outcome, trans-
aggressive support, the adult heart stops within a week fer from hospital), city, patient identification, and source(s)
of brainstem death and that of a child within two weeks, of information. If patient names were public knowledge,
one is not marshalling empirical support for a prediction they were included; otherwise, cases were identified as in
of death. What is being said is that a point has been their original reference or by code.
reached where the various subsystems lack neurological To study the extent to which associated systemic inju-
integration and their continued (artificial) functioning ries, rather than brain destruction per se, might limit sur-
only mimics integrated life. That structural disintegra- vival potential, etiologies were divided into two categories
tion follows brain death is not a contingent matter; it is depending on whether the primary insult was restricted to
a necessary consequence of the death of the critical sys- the brain or also affected multiple organs.
tem. The death of the brain is the point beyond which Data were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier survival curves.
other systems cannot survive with, or without, mechan- Terminal event (spontaneous asystole versus treatment
ical support (emphasis in original; pp. 36-37).24 withdrawal or ongoing survival) distinguished “deaths”
from “censored data” according to Kaplan-Meier methodol-
Recent literature and collective personal experi-
ogy. Survival curves of age and etiology subgroups were
ences, however, c a s t serious doubt on this long-
statistically compared using the Mantel-Haenszel (log-
standing doctrine.
rank) test. Some partitionings of data were also evaluated
by the chi-square test. There is no pretension that these
Methods. An attempt was made to compile all known cases constitute a random or representative sampling of
cases of BD with survival of 1 week or longer through the entire BD population; the statistical techniques were
personal experiences of the author and other professionals, strictly for exploratory purposes within the set of cases
collection of articles, and systematic database searches. collected.
Melvyl Medline (UCLA) was searched on the key word
“brain death” over the entire history of BD (1966 to 19971, Results. Combined sources yielded approximately 175
yielding 12,219 articles. An article was examined if either cases of BD with survival of at least 1 week (the approxi-
title or abstract suggested a possible case of prolonged mation stemming from two articles that reported survival
survival. News media were surveyed through the World durations grouped as mean and standard d e v i a t i ~ n ~ ~ , ~ ~ ) .
Wide Web and Lexis-Nexis on key words “brain death,” The data for these cases, which constitute an integral part
“pregnancy,” and “life support,” using a variety of search of this article, are available in two tables, along with refer-
engines and Lexis-Nexis libraries. ences and 270 footnotes, from the National Auxiliary Pub-
Cases were selected if BD was formally diagnosed ac- lications Service (NAPS) (see Note at end of text). The
cording t o customary criteria. In the medical articles and distribution of sources was as follows: author’s personal
personal sources the basis for diagnosis was usually thor- experience (2 cases), other professionals (6 cases), medical
oughly documented. From the news stories great care was literature (approximately 154 cases), nursing literature (2
taken to include only cases in which BD had been formally cases), bioethics literature (2 cases), court transcripts (2
declared by (presumably) competent physicians, not cases), and newspapers or news wire services (17 cases,
merely journalistic hearsay in which the reporter might about which 79 articles were obtained). The stated total of
have confused BD with vegetative state or coma. Articles approximately 175 is less than the sum of the foregoing
typically stated physicians’ names, specialties, and institu- numbers because of overlap among sources.
tions. Often the diagnosis was confirmed by multiple phy- For purposes of meta-analysis, three cases were ex-
sicians, including at least one neurologist or neurosurgeon. cluded due t o extreme paucity of information and one due
Many articles mentioned results of confirmatory tests or t o lack of certainty of diagnosis (Rosemarie Maniscalco,
described circumstances comprehensible only if the cases whose case occurred before diagnostic standardization by
truly involved formal declarations of BD (e.g., that organ the President’s Commission13and in whom some residual
donation was proposed to the family). EEG activity of uncertain significance reportedly re-
Despite the internationality of cases, diagnostic criteria turned). An additional approximately 115 cases with reli-
were fairly uniform. In most, a US-style “whole-brain’’ able diagnoses, though of considerable interest for survival
standard was employed. A few cases involving the British duration, were unsuitable for meta-analysis because of in-
“brainstem” standard were nevertheless included because sufficient individual data (most reported as grouped statis-
the intrinsic survival capacity of a BD body should not be tics). One table on file with NAPS itemizes these
affected by possible residual cortical function in the con- approximately 119 segregated cases, whereas the other
text of a dead brainstem. Moreover, the purported immi- contains the remaining 56 cases subjected to meta-analysis
nence of asystole is cited as much by British proponents of (see Note at end of text). The case of Tracy Bucher, known
“brainstem death” as by US proponents of “whole-brain through the news media, and that of “Sheila” (a pseud-
death.” onym) in a nursing article had so many features in com-
As much information as possible was collected about mon that they were assumed to be the same patient.
each case and compiled into an Excel (Microsoft; Seattle, Although itemized separately in the NAPS table, they
WA) spreadsheet for statistical analysis and graphical rep- were analyzed as a single case.
resentation. The following data categories were of particu- A few cases featured diagnostic controversy at the time
lar interest: survival duration, age at BD, etiology, clinical of occurrence but were nevertheless included for meta-
signs essential to the diagnosis, confirmatory tests, associ- analysis because, in the author’s opinion, the evidence
ated clinical findings (e.g., diabetes insipidus, nonpurpose- strongly favored BD. These controversies arose many days
ful movements), terminal event (spontaneous asystole into the clinical course and revolved around the interpreta-
versus treatment withdrawal), reason for prolonged sup- tion of return of muscle tone or certain spontaneous or
December 1998 NEUROLOGY 5 1 1539
Total Group
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Survival Duration
Figure 1. Survival curve for the 56 cases subjected to
meta-analysis (“Total”) subdivided according to terminal Figure 2. Kaplan-Meier survival curve corresponding to
event-spontaneous cardiac arrest or treatment figure 1 (with the 19 treatment withdrawals and 1 still
withdrawal. surviving patient analyzed as “censored”data) represent-
ing probability of survival as a function of duration
of brain death.
reflex movements (Camp, Rader, “TK”), including inef-
fectual respiratory-like movements on rare occasions been shifted up and to the right by unknown extents. This
(“Baby A,” “TK”). Both spontaneous trunk and limb uncertainty can be taken into account statistically by re-
movement^^^-^^ and respiratory-like movement^^^.^^ have garding the treatment withdrawals as “censored” data in
been described as spinal cord-mediated phenomena in Kaplan-Meier methodology, analogous to patients lost to
well-documented cases of BD and are explicitly compatible follow-up or still alive at data collection in a typical sur-
with the diagnosis according to the American Academy of vival study. Accordingly, the three curves of figure 1 trans-
Neurology.* Therefore, the diagnostic disputes engendered formed into the single Kaplan-Meier curve of figure 2, in
by such movements were not considered in themselves suf- which the 36 spontaneous arrests constitute the vertical
ficient grounds to reject a case from the current study, steps and the 20 censored cases (19 withdrawals and 1still
especially because criteria for BD were incontrovertibly surviving) modify the probability level at each step. The
fulfilled early in the patients’ courses (when organs could resulting curve is a better indicator of intrinsic survival
have been legally removed or life-support terminated and capacity than those of figure 1. Note that it has shifted
the later controversies never have arisen). markedly to the right, with the first phase (still nearly
Survival durations. Of the approximate total of 175 linear on the semilog plot, but with shallower slope corre-
BD patients surviving a t least 1 week, approximately 80 sponding to a half-life of 2 to 3 months) extending as long
survived at least 2 weeks, approximately 44 a t least 4 as 1 to 2 years, before the second, more gradual, phase
weeks, approximately 20 at least 2 months, and 7 at least sets in.
6 months. Even excluding the 14 cases known only Age efect. Figure 3 shows a scatter plot of age a t BD
through news media or mentioned merely in passing in versus log(duration) for all 56 cases. The longest survivors
medical articles, there remained approximately 161 docu- (2.7, 5.1, and 14.5 years) were all young children, two of
mented survivals of a t least 1 week, approximately 67 at whom were newborns, and all nine survivors beyond 4
least 2 weeks, approximately 32 at least 4 weeks, approxi- months were younger than 18 years. Conversely, all 17
mately 15 a t least 2 months, and 7 at least 6 months. patients over age 30 survived less than 2% months. The
The 56 cases with sufficient individual information for inverse relationship between age and maximum survival
meta-analysis are shown in figure 1 as actuarial survival duration was nearly linear on the semilog plot.
curves for the whole group and for the two subgroups dis- Age also influenced the proportion of treatment withdraw-
tinguished by terminal event: those supported indefinitely als, most of which involved adult patients. An age-partition
until spontaneous cardiac arrest (36 cases plus 1 still sur-
viving) and those from whom treatment was withdrawn
70
(19 cases). The longest survivals were so great (up to 14.5 1
I . I I I
years) that a logarithmic scale was required to fit every- 50
$33
occurring around 4 to 6 months. 8
Most treatment withdrawals (15/19; 79%)occurred after 220
4 weeks, whereas spontaneous arrests were widely distrib- 10
uted across survival durations, with slightly more than 0
one-half (21/37; 57%) before 4 weeks. Chi-square testing 1
0
revealed a window of statistical significance for placement
Survival Duration
of the survival-duration partition between 21.5 and 38.5
days, with maximum significance at 28.5 days ( p = 0.006). Figure 3. Scatter plot of age at brain death versus log-
If support had hypothetically been continued in the with- (survival duration) shows inverse relationship between
drawal subgroup, the overall survival curve would have maximum survival and age.
1540 NEUROLOGY 51 December 1998
Age Effect
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