Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Christopher Scaffidi
Brad Myers
Mary Shaw
4. Conclusions
History and Purpose of the 55M Estimate
– .
Step #1: Project Worker Counts for 2005
Service 24.806
And so forth …
Step #2: Estimate what Fraction of Workers
Use the Computer
Steps to generate the estimate
– Get the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupation
projections for 2005
– Get the BLS computer usage rates by occupation for 1989
Service 10.2%
And so forth …
Step #3: Multiply and Sum Up
And so forth …
Sum turns out to be -----> 55 M
Step #4: Apply Adjustments
– 1984
– 1989 (the only year used in old 55M estimate)
– 1993
– 1997
Adjustment #1: Rising Usage Rates
Adjustment #1: Rising Usage Rates
Excellent match.
Examining Assumptions