Project Management CPM/PERT

UNIT -5

Project Scheduling and Control Techniques

Gantt Chart Critical Path Method (CPM) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

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Gantt Chart
Graph or bar chart with a bar for each project activity that shows passage of time

Provides visual display of project schedule

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CPM calculation
Path

A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting event to the ending event
Critical

Path

The longest path (time); determines the project duration

Critical

Activities

All of the activities that make up the critical path

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Forward Pass

Backward Pass

Earliest Start Time (ES) earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors Earliest finish time (EF) earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t

Latest Start Time (LS) Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF - t Latest finish time (LF)

latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time darla/smbs/vit
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

CPM analysis

Draw the CPM network Analyze the paths through the network Determine the float for each activity Compute the activitys float float = LS - ES = LF - EF Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity, i.e., delays completion of the project Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no slack i.e.. Zero slack Longest path through a network Find the project duration is minimum project completion time
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CPM Example:

CPM Network f, 15 a, 6 g, 17 i, 6 h, 9

b, 8
d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
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j, 12

CPM Example
ES

and EF Times

f, 15 g, 17 i, 6

a, 6 0 6

h, 9

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 e, 9
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d, 13

j, 12

CPM Example
ES

and EF Times
a, 6 0 6

f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6

h, 9

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14
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j, 12

CPM Example
ES

and EF Times
a, 6 0 6

f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 23 29

h, 9 21 30

b, 8
0 8 c, 5 0 5 d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14
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j, 12 21 33 Projects EF = 33
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CPM Example
LS

and LF Times
a, 6 0 6

f, 15 6 21 g, 17 6 23 i, 6 23 29 27 33

h, 9 21 30 24 33

b, 8 0 8
c, 5 0 5

d, 13 8 21 e, 9 5 14
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j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
LS

and LF Times

a, 6 0 6 4 10 b, 8 0 8 0 8 c, 5 0 5 7 12

f, 15 6 21 18 24 g, 17 6 23 10 27 d, 13 8 21 8 21 e, 9 5 14 darla/smbs/vit 12 21

i, 6 23 29 27 33

h, 9 21 30 24 33

j, 12 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Float

a, 6 3 0 6 3 9 b, 8 0 0 8 0 8 c, 5 7 0 5 7 12

f, 15 3 6 21 9 24 g, 17 4 6 23 10 27 d, 13 0 8 21 8 21 e, 9 7 5 14 12 21 darla/smbs/vit

i, 6 23 29 4 27 33

h, 9 3 21 30 24 33

j, 12 0 21 33 21 33

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CPM Example
Critical

Path

f, 15 g, 17 i, 6

a, 6

h, 9

b, 8
d, 13 c, 5 e, 9
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j, 12

PERT

PERT is based on the assumption that an activitys duration follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an activitys duration distribution: pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if things did not go well most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the activitys duration optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if things did go well tp + 4 tm + t o Mean (expected time): te = 6
2

Variance: Vt darla/smbs/vit

=2

tp - to
6
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PERT analysis
Draw the network. Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path. The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration probability distribution which is assumed to be normal The standard deviation of the project duration probability distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and taking the square root of that sum Probability computations can now be made using the normal distribution table.

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Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time x- Z=

where = tp = project mean time

= project standard mean time x = (proposed ) specified time

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Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

= tp
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Time
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PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) A -4 6 8 B -1 4.5 5 C A 3 3 3 D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5 F B,C 3 4 5 G B,C 1 1.5 5 H E,F 5 6 7 I E,F 2 5 8 J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 K G,I 3 5 7
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PERT Example PERT Network

D

C B F G
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Project Crashing

Crashing reducing project time by expending additional resources Crash time an amount of time an activity is reduced Crash cost cost of reducing activity time Goal reduce project duration at minimum cost

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Activity crashing

Crash cost

Crashing activity Slope = crash cost per unit time Normal Activity

Normal cost

Normal time
Crash time Activity time
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 Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases Indirect costs increase as project duration increases Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs

Time-Cost Relationship

Time-Cost Tradeoff
Min total cost = optimal project time Total project cost Indirect cost

Direct cost
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time

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Project Crashing example

2 8 1
12

4
12

7 4 3 4

5 4

6 4

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Time Cost data

Activity Norma Norma Crash l time l cost time Rs 1 12 3000 7 2 8 2000 5 3 4 4000 3 4 12 50000 9 5 4 500 1 6 4 500 1 7 4 1500 3 75000 Crash cost Rs 5000 3500 7000 71000 1100 1100 22000 11070 0 darla/smbs/vit Allowable crash time 5 3 1 3 3 3 1 slope

400 500 3000 7000 200 200 7000

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R500
2 8 1
12

R7000 4
12

Project duration = 36
R700 7 4 6 4 R200

From..

R400

3 4 R3000

5 4 R200

R500 2 8

R7000 4
12

R700

To.. Project duration = 31

1
7

7 4
6 4 R200
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R400

3 4

5 4 R200

Additional cost = R2000

R3000
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Useful at many stages of project management Mathematically simple Give critical path and slack time Provide project documentation Useful in monitoring costs

Benefits of CPM/PERT

CPM/PERT can answer the following important questions:

How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the risks involved? Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could delay the entire project if they were not completed on time? Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule? If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best 27 way to do this at the least cost? darla/smbs/vit

Limitations to CPM/PERT

Clearly defined, independent and stable activities Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis on critical paths Deterministic CPM model Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical

To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be performed on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias
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