Screening the Ideas

Introduction

We have seen sorting of ideas, which reduced the number of concepts for more quantitative consideration. For simple product designs, the idea sorting may suggest only one or two strong ideas can then proceed directly to Selection stage. In other cases, we have to go through screening process. We need a basis for qualitative judgments to further reduce the selection. To compare different product ideas, we need a variety of criteria:

Purely objective questions: Which of these two absorbents has a greater capacity? Which battery has greater power per mass? More subjective criteria: Which of the two fabrics is more wearable? Which of the products is safer? In more complex cases, we will be making compromises between two conflicting criteria: how to decide between different home air purifiers whose performance and cost go up together?

Strategies for Idea Screening

Clearly, many possible strategies for ideas screening. Easiest approach: to look at the headings in the outline, and choose the best candidate under each heading. This strategy works well if the product designs are simple extensions of existing technology. A significant risk: two best ideas may be under the same subheading. This strategy is very risky if there are many, very different product designs.

Strategies for Idea Screening

A more effective strategy is to determine factors by which to evaluate the product:

Scientific maturity. We prefer designs based on scientific

We need to choose five or fewer factors that are most important. How? Concept screening matrix.

knowledge already understood. Engineering ease. We prefer designs that imply straightforward engineering akin to that used in established manufacturing. Minimum risk. We prefer not to take chances; would like to know our chances of success. Low cost. We want a rough estimate of relative cost of our ideas. Safety. We prefer products which are inherently safer. Low environmental impact. We prefer less pollution Other factors may be more subjective. E.g., the product should be quiet or the product should be comfortable.

Concept-screening Matrix

The choice of most important factors is best made by consensus, with the entire core team working together. In seeking this consensus, the team members need to be careful not to compete, not to feel that their chosen factors will be winners or losers. Need to note that some individuals are rational and some individuals can precipitate polarization and win-lose arguments. Once the key factors are identified, we assign (normalized) weighting factors to them. n

i 1

i is weighting factor for attribute i.

Experience shows that the core team reaches the consensus on weighting factors more quickly than on the choice of the factors themselves.

Concept-screening Matrix

With these weighting factors in hand, the key ideas are evaluated on basis of some scale. Easiest scale ranges from a low score of one to a high score of ten. To begin, we assign an average score of five to the benchmark. Then each product idea is graded relative to this benchmark. We thus have a group of scores sij for each attribute i and each idea j. The total score for each idea is then:
Score( j ) i sij
i 1 n

The ideas with the highest scores are then used for the next stage of product design: selection.

Improving the Idea Screening Process

The simple procedure outlined above can be improved:

First, a careful choice of the benchmark.

In many cases, the benchmark will be an existing product with the greatest market share. Or it may be, a potential product from competitors. Or it may be the best of the existing products. As a check, try to choose a different benchmark after a first round of assessments, just to make sure our first benchmark is best.

Improving the Idea Screening Process

Second, check the core teams scores against those of other interested experts.

One obvious group are other individuals in marketing outside our core team. Another group are the lead users of current products.

Third, make a sensitivity analysis of the weighting factors.

Essentially, change the weighting factors within sensible limits to see if this alters our rank ordering of the ideas. Usually, little change; if change is dramatic, re-examine the selection criteria we may not have considered all major issues.

Improving the Idea Screeing Process

An important assumption made in the matrix approach is that everything can be scored and weighted linearly. This is approximately true only when the products are similar, changed only in minor ways. The assumption of linearity is untrue if:

The criterion is binary. E.g., the product may be judged

noisy or quiet, with nothing in between. The product will not work. E.g., the product may depend on making an invention which may not be possible. The product changes the market. I.e., the product is so good that all other criteria are irrelevant. The product is a show stopper or game changer or step-out technology.

Example Home Oxygen Supply

Those with lung disorders, including emphysema, can sometimes benefit from breathing air enriched with oxygen. This oxygen is presently supplied as cylinders of nearly pure oxygen, regularly delivered. This can be expensive; shifting of cylinders around the house can be difficult, especially if the user is older. Need to find an alternative to gas cylinders to provide home oxygen.

Example Home Oxygen Supply

Two reasonable alternatives: membrane separation and pressure swing adsorption (PSA). The membrane separation uses selective hollow fibers in a module like a shell and tube heat exchanger, but with tubes ~ 1mm in diameter.

The PSA unit uses an adsorbent, often a zeolite.

It requires a pump to compress room air and force it across the fibers. This permeate air will contain perhaps 30% oxygen. The air at high pressure is forced through until the adsorbant is saturated with O2. Then the flow is stopped and the pressure is released. The air coming out of the bed is enriched with O2. This system also requires a pump, as well as some valving.

Need to choose key factors and evaluate the two ideas.

Example Home Oxygen Supply

The core team decided that there are three key factors:

Convenience this is marginally more important factor. Noise may be unimportant to a geriatric patient who is deaf, but important to anyone who lives with the patient. Cost Important if the patient pays; however if the costs are borne by insurance, not so important.

All three factors of roughly equal importance. On this basis, we can prepare a concept-screening matrix.

Example Home Oxygen Supply

Example Home Oxygen Supply

Convenience is given a slightly greater importance than either noise or cost. As benchmark, the gas cylinder is always given score of 5. The hollow fiber membranes have top score, followed by the PSA. However, it may be harder to make a membrane with the desired properties than to locate an effective zeolite adsorbent.

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Cesium, 137Cs, is a radioactive by-product of atomic weapons manufacture. Other by-products can be precipitated using basic solution but not Cesium. Cesium remains dissolved in aqueous solutions. Millions of gallons of this aqueous solutions are stored in tanks in the locations where atomic weapons are manufactured. If tanks leak because of aging or earthquakes, the escaping cesium would spell disaster. How to make the cesium less dangerous? Several ideas have been suggested.

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Choice of benchmark existing process

Precipitation of the cesium cation with the tetraphenylborate anion.

Known science Reliable engineering Safety Public response Cost not a factor since all processes expected to be very expensive.

Key factors chosen:

Each of the promising processes scored by using these criteria.

Example High Level Radioactive Waste

Conclusions

This chapter describes the generation and screening of ideas, the second step of product design. We welcome product ideas from every possible source:

A useful target ~ 100 ideas. Then we organize the ideas, removing redundancy and pruning folly. This gives ~ 20 candidates. We then use concept screening methods to evaluate further and reduce the number to five or fewer. After the ideas are screened, we must select among the best choices and manufacture the products. This comes next.

Core team Customers, competitors and consultants Brainstorming

Second Management Review (The Second Gate)

Again the core team makes a presentation to the same senior management group.

The management will decide whether or not to continue the work. The management team may be charmed by suggested innovations and excited by product improvements. Management teams with nontechnical background may require help in making reasoned decisions. The core team must, hence, be especially careful to be objective. The team must make sure to highlight not only the potential rewards, but also the risks. After this stage, product development gets more expensive.

This presentation will include both oral and written components.