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Chapter Twelve
Learning Objectives
LO.1 Compare and contrast the rational model of decision making, Simons normative model, and the garbage can model. LO.2 Discuss eight decision-making biases. LO.3 Discuss the thrust of evidence-based decision making and its implementation principles. LO.4 Explain the model of decision-making styles. LO.5 Explain the model of intuition and the ethical decision tree.
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Rational Model
Evaluate Alternatives and Select a Solution
Is the potential solution ethical? Is it feasible? Will it remove the causes and solve the problem?
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Rational Model
Implement and Evaluate the Solution
After solution is implemented, the evaluation phase is used to evaluate its effectiveness Optimizing producing the best possible solution
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Satisficing
choosing a solution that meets some minimum qualifications, one that is good enough.
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Decision-Making Biases
Judgmental heuristics
rules of thumb or shortcuts that people use to reduce information processing demands.
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Decision-Making Biases
Availability heuristic
Representativeness heuristic
Confirmation bias
Anchoring bias
Overconfidence bias
Hindsight bias
Framing bias
Escalation bias
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Question?
From January to October, Jamie's work performance was at best mediocre. In November and December, he significantly picked up his performance and did an excellent job. His supervisor evaluated him as an outstanding performer. This can be explained partially due to the:
A.Escalation of commitment effect. B.Representativeness heuristic. C.Nominal group effect. D.Availability heuristic.
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Decision-Making Styles
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A Model of Intuition
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A Model of Intuition
Holistic hunch
judgment that is based on a subconscious integration of information stored in memory
Automated experiences
choice based on a familiar situation and a partially subconscious application of previously learned information related to that situation
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Group Involvement
Minority dissent
extent to which group members feel comfortable disagreeing with other group members, and a groups level of participation in decision making
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Brainstorming
process to generate a quantity of ideas
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Delphi technique
process to autonomously generate ideas from physically dispersed experts
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Creativity
Creativity
process of using intelligence, imagination, and skill to develop a new or novel product, object, process, or thought
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