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Modeling
Chapter 4: Behavior of the
System
Pard Teekasap
Southern New Hampshire
University
Outline
1.Fundamental modes
– Exponential growth
– Goal seeking
– Oscillation
2.Interaction of the fundamental
modes
– S-shaped growth
– S-shaped growth with overshoot
– Overshoot and collapse
What are the system behaviors
come from?
• The behavior arises from its structure
• Structure consists of the feedback
loops, stock and flow, and
nonlinearities created by the
interaction of the physical and
institutional structure of the system
Common modes of behavior in
dynamic systems
Exponential Growth Goal Seeking S-shaped Growth
State of the
System
Time
+
Net State of the
Increase R
System
Rate
+
Example of exponential
growth US Real GDP US Prison Population
8000 1200
AverageGrowth
Rate3.45%/year AverageGrowthRate:
DoublingTime-20years 1926-1995:3.5%/year(doublingtime-20years)
Billion 1992 $/Year
Thousand People
1970-1995:6.8%/year(doublingtime-10years)
900
4000 600
300
0 0
1850 1900 1950 2000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Transistors/Chip
Pro
6 10
6
4 Million
5
10
4
3 104 Pentium
3
2 10
2
102 486
0 Upper Bound 1965 1975 1985 1995
1900 2000
386 Best Fit Exponential
4004 8080 8086 80286
Lower Bound
0 0
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Goal
Goal Seeking
State of the
System
Time
Corrective
Action +
Characteristics of goal
seeking
• If the relationship between the size
the gap and the corrective action is
linear, the rate of adjustment is
exactly proportional to the size of
the gap and the resulting goal-
seeking behavior is exponential
decay
• Pure exponential decay is
characterized by its half life
• What are the examples of goal
seeking behavior?
Example of goal-seeking
behavior
Semiconductor Fabrication Defect Rate
1500
Nuclear Plant Load Factor
100
Start of TQM Program
80
1000
60
40
500
20
0 0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1950 1958 1967 1975 1983 1992 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Oscillation
• The overshooting arises from the
presence of significant time delays
in the negative loop
• However, most real world oscillations
is not perfectly regular. You
shouldn’t expect it to be
• What are the examples of oscillation
behavior?
Oscillation structure
Goal
State of the
System
Time
Measurement,
Reporting, and
Perception
Delays
0.0
-0.4
1850 1900 1950 2000
US Unemployment Rate
Capacity Utilization, US Manufacturing 12
95
10
90
8
85
6
80
4
75 2
70 0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Process Point
• When you see the behavior, you
should know which type of loop is a
dominant loop
• E.g. if you observe exponential
growth, you know there is at least
one positive feedback (and possibly
more)
• However, there will be many
negative loops as well. But the
positive loops are dominant
S-shaped growth
Carrying Capacity
State of the
System
Time
+
Net
State of the
Increase
R System
+ Rate
+
B -
Fractional Resource Carrying
Net Increase Adequacy Capacity
Rate
+ +
S-shaped growth condition
• S-shaped growth happens only
1.The negative loops must not include
any significant time delays
2.The carry capacity must be fixed
• Carry capacity is the capability of an
environment to handle that
variable
• What are the examples of S-shaped
behavior?
Example of S-shaped growth
Growth of Sunflowers
300
200
100
0
0 14 28 42 56 70 84
Days
75 75
% of Households with TV
Subscribing to Cable
50 50
25 25
Cable Subscribers
(Million Households)
0 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972
S-shaped growth with
overshoot
• S-shaped structure with significant
time delays in the negative loops
• Time delays in the negative loops
lead to the possibility that the state
of the system will overshoot and
oscillate around the carrying
capacity
• What are the examples of S-shaped
growth with overshoot?
S-shaped growth with
overshoot structure
Carrying Capacity
State of the
System
Time
Net +
Increase State of the
Rate R System
+
+
Delay
Fractional B -
Net Increase Resource Carrying
Rate Adequacy Capacity
+ Delay +
Example of S-shaped growth
with overshoot
Population of London
10
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
US Aluminum Production
5000
2500
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Overshoot and Collapse
• Carrying capacity is reduced by the
variables
• E.g. the ability of the environment to
support a growing population is
eroded or consumed by the
population itself
• If there is no regeneration of the
carrying capacity, the equilibrium
of the system is extinction
• What are the examples of overshoot
and collapse?
Overshoot and collapse
structure
Carrying Capacity
State of the
System
Time
+
+
Net Consumption/
State of the
Increase Erosion of
System
R
+ Rate Carrying Capacity
+
B - -
Fractional
Resource Carrying
Net Increase
Adequacy Capacity
Rate
+ +
Example of overshoot and
collapse
New England Haddock Catch Net Change in World Nuclear Power Capacity
150 40
30
100
20
50
10
0 0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1.5 30
1.0 20
0.5 10
0.0 0
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985
What are the structures for
these exponential growth
behaviors?
US Real GDP US Prison Population
8000 1200
AverageGrowth
Rate3.45%/year AverageGrowthRate:
DoublingTime-20years 1926-1995:3.5%/year(doublingtime-20years)
Billion 1992 $/Year
Thousand People
1970-1995:6.8%/year(doublingtime-10years)
900
4000 600
300
0 0
1850 1900 1950 2000 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
6
Transistors/Chip 6
Pro
4 10
Million
5
10
4
3 104 Pentium
3
2 10
2
102 486
0 Upper Bound 1965 1975 1985 1995
1900 2000
386 Best Fit Exponential
4004 8080 8086 80286
Lower Bound
0 0
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Basic positive feedbacks
responsible for economic
growth
Expanding the model to
include investment and births
Simple model of the
demographic transition
First-cut model to explain
growth in prison population
Prison population model
expanded to include
hypothesized social feedback
Prison population model
expanded to include rewards
and risk of crime
Selected positive feedbacks
underlying Moore’s Law
What are the structures
underlying these goal-seeking
1500
behaviors?
Semiconductor Fabrication Defect Rate
100
Nuclear Plant Load Factor
Start of TQM Program
80
1000
60
40
500
20
0 0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
1950 1958 1967 1975 1983 1992 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Process improvement efforts –
PDCA
Process improvement for
nuclear plant load
Feedbacks acting to improve
automobile safety
Demand and supply for TV
ads
TV ads model expands to
include the audience
annoyance loop
TV ads model expands to
include couch potato and
program quality
What are the structures
underlying these oscillation
behaviors?0.4
US Real GDP Deviation From Trend
0.0
-0.4
1850 1900 1950 2000
US Unemployment Rate
Capacity Utilization, US Manufacturing 12
95
10
90
8
85
6
80
4
75 2
70 0
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Negative feedbacks and delays
contributing to the business
cycle
Next Week
• Chapter 6
• Research Proposal
• 1 paragraph summarize of Navid’s
paper