Probabilities for compound events

Lets start !

Lets start !
example: Toss a balanced die once and record the number on the top face. Let E be the event that a 1 shows on the top face. Let F be the event that the number on the top face is odd.

What is P(E)? What is the Probability of the event E if we are told that the

number on the top face is odd, that is, we know that the event F has occurred?

Lets start !
Next table shows earned degrees in the United States in recent year:
Bachelor Master PhD Post-PhD

Female Male

616 529

194 171

30 44

16 26

If a random person is selected, determine the probability of:

Being a male

Being a woman with a master

Being a Bachelor given that is a female If it is a male, what is the probability of having a post-PhD? If you select two guys, determine the probability that both could have a PhD.

Lets start !
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P{D) = 0.83; the
probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(DA)= 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and (b) departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a
head on the coin and a 3 on the die.

Suppose that we have a candy box containing 20 candies, of which 5 are chocolates.
If 2 candies are selected at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both candies are chocolates?

Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of
playing cards. Find the probability that the event A1A2A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that the first card is a red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event that the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.

Types of events and its probabilities

Independent Events: If the probability of the occurrence of
event A is the same regardless of whether or not an outcome B occurs, then the outcomes A and B are said to be independent of one another

Dependent Events:

P( A B) P( A) P( B)
if and only if

A and B are independent events.

Key idea: The original sample space no

longer applies. The new one is a reduced sample space.

Another example

A consulting firm rents cars from 3 agencies: 20% from Budget, 30% from Avis and 50% from Hertz. If 10% of the cars from Budget, 12% from Avis and 4% from Hertz have bad tires, determine the probability that a. the firm will get a car with bad tires

b. If the firm select a car with bad tires, what is the probability that come from Avis?

Suppose that the four inspectors at a film factory are supposed to stamp the expiration date on each package of film at the end of the assembly line. John, who stamps 20% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 200 packages: Tom, who stamps 60% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 100 packages; Jeff, who stamps 15% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 90 packages; and Pat, who stamps 5% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 200 packages. If a customer complains that her package of film does not show the expiration date, what is the probability that it was inspected by John?

Bayes Rule