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ECO 1192
Lecture 1: Introduction
Claude Thoret
University of Ottawa
General Information
Availability
90 minutes weekly
Location and time to be determined
Final Grade
Best 2 of 3 partial examinations: 2@15% = 30%
Two assignments: 2@15% = 30%
1. Introduction
Recommended textbook
Fraser and Jewkes, Engineering Economics,
5th edition, Pearson, Toronto, Ontario, 2013
Available at the university bookstore
On-going access to an engineering
economics text is highly recommended.
1. Introduction
ENGINEERING ECONOMICS
ECO 1192A
Outline
Instructor: C. Thoret
Fall 2012
Availability: tbd
e-mail: ctheoret@uottawa.ca
LECTURES
1
2
3
4
ENGINEERING ECONOMICS
ECO 1192A Fall 2012
Instructor: Claude Thoret
Date: August 26, 2012
LECTURES, ASSIGNMENTS AND EXAMINATIONS
Engineering Decision Making (Ch. 1)
Time Value of Money (Ch. 2)
Cash Flow Analysis (Ch. 3)
Single Sums, annuities and payback methods: simple
and discounted (Ch.4)
Internal (IRR) and external (ERR) rates of return (Ch. 5)
Capital Rationing (course notes)
DATES
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http://www.uottawa.ca
From Quick Picks, select Virtual Campus
Provide student number & password
Select Engineering Economics (ECO1192A)
from drop-down menu.
1. Introduction
Recommended reading
Fraser et al.* chapter 1
Newnan et al. chapter 1
Park chapter 1
1. Introduction
Lecture objectives
1.
2.
3.
4.
1. Introduction
Source: Mankiw et al. Principles of Microeconomics. 2nd Canadian Edition, Thomson-Nelson, 2002
1. Introduction
Economics
The study of
1. the choices made by individuals, businesses, governments,
and societies as they cope with scarcity.
2. scarcity and efficiency.
Scarcity
Using available resources to satisfy the most needs (knowing that all
needs cannot be satisfied).
1. Introduction
10
Economic problem
11
Economic objective
Satisfy as many societal wants as possible from
available (although limited) productive resources
(land, labour, capital)
Make the best possible decisions when confronted
with several projects or investments
Nuclear mouse trap
Ford Edsel
CF 105
Avoid wasting resources
Produce what society wants the most as effciently
as possible.
1. Introduction
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13
1. Introduction
14
Who?
Where?
When?
?
?
? ??
?
15
What?
What goods and services are produced?
Cars or DVDs?
Bicycles or skateboards?
Trains or aircraft?
In what quantities?
..
Source: Introduction to Microeconomics, Robin Bade and Michael Parkin,
Fifth Edition, 2003, Pearson - Addison Wesley, Toronto, Ontario.
1. Introduction
16
1. Introduction
17
How?
How will the goods and services be produced?
By machines only?
By labour only?
By labour and machines?
If so, in what proportions?
1. Introduction
18
Who?
Who consumes the goods and services?
Answer depends on the distribution of
income
How is labour income determined?
How is interest income determined?
1. Introduction
19
Where?
Where are goods and services produced?
1. Introduction
20
When?
When are the goods and services to be produced?
Now or later?
Determinants include
seasonal factors
business cycle
1. Introduction
21
Efficiency (economic)
Two dimensions
Production (physical): produce at any point (e.g., A, E,
and F) on the following production possibility curve
(PPF).
Allocation: select the most-valued production by
society on the PPF
22
2000
1000
Producing more cars
Producing fewer trucks
Limited Resources
300
700
1. Introduction
1000
Cars
23
E
3000
2000
1000
Physical Efficiency
Points such as A, E and F
F
0
300
700
1. Introduction
1000
Cars
24
3000
2000
1000
Economic Efficiency
300
700
1. Introduction
?
?? ??
?
1000
Cars
25
Economic efficiency
ratio of value or worth to cost.
must exceed 1 or 100% to be successful
1. Introduction
26
Engineers
Societal
Needs
Scientific
Knowledge
(Goods &
Services)
1. Introduction
27
Engineer
applies science to satisfy human wants and desires
develops ways to utilise economically the materials and forces
of nature for the benefit of person-kind
Scientist
discovers laws of behaviour
expands the body of systematic knowledge
Science is the foundation upon which the engineer builds toward
the advancement of mankind.
The engineer applies this knowledge to produce products and
services that satisfy more human wants and desires.
28
29
Examples
CF 105; nuclear mouse trap
their physical efficiency may be very impressive but in the
absence of markets for these goods, their development and
production would waste scarce economic resources
Economists
must contend with human behaviour which, at times, is not
easy to project
E.g., two persons may dispose of their earnings in very
different ways when faced with identical situations.
cannot expect the behaviour of consumers, of savers etc. to
be the same at all times
Essentially, past human behaviour is becoming a less reliable
barometer of how people will behave in the future.
1. Introduction
30
Bi-environmental nature of
engineering
Engineers must deal with the economic and physical
spheres
apply physical laws to produce goods and services of
physical efficiency
31
1950s
ECONOMIC
SPHERE
(Economic
efficiency)
Efficiency
ENGINEERING
SPHERE
ENGINEERING SPHERE
(Physical efficiency)
1. Introduction
ECONOMIC SPHERE
32
1. Introduction
33
1. Introduction
34
Engineering Process
Alternatives (A, B ..D) for satisfying human needs
A societal
need is
identified
X
X
X
X
X A
X
B
X C
Societal
need has
been
satisfied
1. Introduction
35
1. Introduction
36
5. Decision-making
37
consequences
8. Choose the best alternative
9. Audit the result.
1. Introduction
38
Engineering economics
Engineering economics
The science that deals with techniques of quantitative analysis
useful for selecting the preferred alternative among competing
alternatives.
Why engineering economics?
Time-value mechanics
Importance of time in decision-making
Economic efficiency
Satisfy the most possible given resources and technology
(knowing that we can NEVER satisfy everyones wants at any
given time)
1. Introduction
39
Importance of time
Time is money
tomorrow.
40
Economists
cost = explicit cash flows + implicit cost
a project is acceptable to society if the value of the
41
Implicit cost
42
1. Introduction
43
1. Introduction
44
depreciation
Economic Cost
Fuel, oil, windshield liquid, vehicle
depreciation, insurance
Travel time, accident risk, pollution, highway
wear and tear, anxiety ..
1. Introduction
45
payment = $200,000
Speedy Bank provides a loan for the
difference
($100,000) at 10%
The professors annual salary was $50,000
1. Introduction
46
Economic Profit
300,000
300,000
100,000
50,000
10,000
100,000
50,000
10,000
$160,000
$160,000
1. Introduction
47
Accounting Profit
Economic Profit
IMPLICIT COSTS
Professors forgone
wages
50,000
Professors foregone
interest income
($200,000@10%)
20,000
Accounting depreciation
(formula based)
15,000
Economic depreciation
10,000
Normal profit
20,000
15,000
100,000
TOTAL COSTS
175,000
260,000
125,000
40,000
TOTAL PROFITS
1. Introduction
48
1. Introduction
49
Rate of interest
The importance of time in engineering
economic studies is captured by the rate of
interest
a cost to the borrower, a source of income to
the lender.
50
51
Project A
Project B
$10,000
10,000
Salvage value
(SV; $)
$0
5 years
5 years
3,000
5,000
Year 2 ($)
3,000
4,000
Year 3 ($)
3,000
3,000
Year 4 ($)
3,000
2,000
Year 5 ($)
3,000
1,000
1. Introduction
52
53
Value today
(Project A)
Value today
(Project B)
0%
$5,000
$5,000
5%
638
-919
10%
- 876
-1,453
15%
-1,471
-4,743
20%
-3,238
-6,927
1. Introduction
54
Contributions at end
of years 1 to 9
inclusively
Contributions at end
of years 10 to 40
inclusively
Option 1
(Good Times Now)
$0
$7,368
Option 2
(Good Times Later)
$8,107
$0
Option
1. Introduction
55
Project analyses
1. Financial
1. Introduction
56
What is a project?
A project
Any activity designed to satisfy a goal or goals
Involves costs and/or benefits
Examples
Policies (e.g., universal child care)
Real property
Purchase or rent a building?
Business investments
Financial property
Government bonds, GICs
Benefits and costs may be explicit or implicit
Purchase price, pollution
1. Introduction
57
5M
$2
$0.05
$200M
$0.03 per vehicle
$0.01 per vehicle
10 minutes
$25
$20,000
10
$500,000
300
$2,000
$0.06
58
1. Introduction
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60
1. Introduction
61
How measured
Observation of damage
Political benefit
Cost of removal
62
How measured
2. Telephone costs
Telephone bills
3. Insurance costs
Insurance premiums
Survey information
Survey information
Survey information
Difficult to measure
63
How measured
Surveys
1. Introduction
64
5M
$2
$0.05
$200M
$0.03 per vehicle
$0.01 per vehicle
10 minutes
$25
$20,000
10
$500,000
300
$2,000
$0.06
65
2. Economic Analysis
MUST be
Identified
Measured (converted to equivalent
monetary values)
1. Introduction
66
2. Economic Analysis
Advantage
Common basis for both quantitative and qualitative
information
Disadvantages
Difficulty in converting some project factors to
equivalent cash value data; many models and
estimates
Value of a persons life; health; historical buildings
Pollution levels (noise )
1. Introduction
67
Major cost
equipment purchase and operating expenses
1. Introduction
68
How measured
Observation of damage
Political benefit
Cost of removal
69
Major cost
Staffing, building (capital) and maintenance
1. Introduction
70
How measured
2. Telephone costs
Telephone bills
3. Insurance costs
Insurance premiums
Survey information
Survey information
Survey information
Difficult to measure
1. Introduction
71
5M
$2
$0.05
$200M
$0.03 per vehicle
$0.01 per vehicle
10 minutes
$25
$20,000
10
$500,000
300
$2,000
$0.06
1. Introduction
All explicit and implicit project
impacts must be considered.
72
73
How measured
Surveys
1. Introduction
74
3. Multi-criteria (attribute)
Full integration of quantitative and qualitative information
without the conversion of non-monetary data
Advantage
All criteria (quantitative and qualitative) are integrated in
one decision model
Disadvantages
Modeling can be onerous in terms of time and money
Not easy to determine
the scaling for different levels of factors (criteria)
the weighting of criteria.
1. Introduction
75
3. Multi-criteria (attribute)
Mary is looking for a summer job
interviewed by several potential employers during the
winter term
received 9 job offers
1. Introduction
76
(MAX)
Salary
(MIN)
Distance
(MAX)
Work-study
(MIN)
# employees
1. Alpha
1 700
2. Beta
1 600
500
3. Gamma
2 200
80
150
4. Delta
1 800
100
3 000
5. Epsilon
1 700
100
20
6. Zeta
2 000
150
2 500
7. Eta
2 200
250
300
8. Theta
2 700
500
20
9. Iota
2 700
2 000
40
Job offers
1. Introduction
77
Course applications
Many sections of this course can be applied
to personal financial decisions. For example,
mortgage payment calculations
bond yields
rates
1. Introduction
78
equity?
interest on the outstanding mortgage?
1. Introduction
79
Weeks 2-5
1. Introduction
80
?
?
? ???
Project
parameters
Project A
Project B
Project C
First cost
($)
3,000
5,000
8,000
Annual cost
($)
600
900
1300
Annual revenues
($)
1500
1750
2000
Salvage value
($)
-200
1000
Duration
(years)
10
20
Interest rate
(10%)
10
10
10
1. Introduction
81
1. Introduction
82
Maximize profits
Minimize costs
1. Introduction
83
1. Introduction
84
Engineering Economics
ECO 1192
Lecture 1: Introduction
Claude Thoret
University of Ottawa