07 TechnologyRoadmaps

Centre for Technology Management
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners
Fast-start technology
roadmapping
Prague
Thursday 9th October 2003, 09:00 - 13:00
Dr Robert Phaal
Workshop aim
To provide:
An introduction to the theory and practice
of technology roadmapping
Agenda
09:00
Overview
09:10
Technology roadmapping - principles & practice
10:30
Break
11:00
T-Plan fast-start approach
11:20
Group activity - the bicycle of the future
12:30
Discussion - getting started
13:00
Review and close
Technology roadmapping principles & practice
Roadmapping - Planning for the Future

Time
M1
Market
P1
Product
Resources
P2
P3
P4
T1
Technology
R&D
programmes
M2
T2
T3
RD 1
RD 2
T4
RD 4
RD 3
RD 6
RD 5
Capital investment / finance

Supply chain
Staff / skills
Technology roadmapping process

Benefits
Facilitate the integration of new technology into the business

Support for company strategy and planning processes
Identify new business opportunities for exploiting technology
Provide top level information on the technological direction of the
business
Support communication and co-operation within the business
Identify gaps in market and technical knowledge
Support sourcing decisions, resource allocation, risk management
and exploitation decisions
High-level integrated planning and control
- a common reference / framework
Uncertainty / risk of
prediction / investment
Time is a key dimension

Short term
Operations
What to manufacture?
How many of each model?
What materials to order?
quantitative focus
Medium term
Innovation
Which products?
Which markets?
What cost?
Long term
New (?):
- Markets
- Products
- Technologies
- Capabilities
- Organisational structures
- Distribution channels
- Competition
Strategy
Which technologies?
qualitative focus
Time
Performance
Technology as a dynamic resource

New dominant
technology
(disruptive??)
Technology
discontinuity
Current
dominant
technology
Emerging
Pacing
Technology S curves
Base
Shape influenced by:

Market demand
Scientific knowledge
Investment / innovation
Key
Turbulence
Time
Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995
Strategic Postures
Performance
Time
Courtney et al (HBR, 1997)
3. Reserve the right to play

Performance
2. Adapt to the future

Performance
1. Shape the future
Time
Time
Evolution of long range planning approaches

1970
Strategic
planning
1980
Motorola develops
technology
roadmapping
approach
Co-evolution
Policy
1990
Take up in
electronics
sector
2000
Semiconductor
Technology Roadmap
Take up in
other sectors
- companies
- consortia
- government
Foresight
Forecasting
Science fiction
Futures & Scenario planning
2010
Roadmapping
approach
supports
integrated
strategic
planning
Technology roadmapping
Relationship to the strategic planning process
Market Information
Product-Market analysis
Product-Technology
Options Evaluation
Where are the

boundaries of
the roadmapping
process?
Roadmap
Creation
Defined
Targets
Project
Proposals
Technology Assessment
Identification of Technology
Available / Feasible / Possible
Source: EIRMA, 1997
Technology roadmapping
Two extremes
1. Market pull
2. Technology push
- How to reach a goal?
Planning
Market focus
Assumes product market opportunity
Deterministic
Convergent
Customer driven
- What opportunities could arise?
Technology focus
Looking for opportunities
Open ended
Divergent
The fast-start concept:
roadmapping as an ongoing process

Programme
management
Project
management
Synchronise
2
Forecasting
Persuade
1
Understand
Simplification
Competitive
analysis
Fast-Start
Resource
allocation
Measure:
Accuracy
and clarity
Product
planning
Portfolio
management
Measure:
Measure:
Aligned
priorities &
decisions
Ongoing
co-ordination
Roadmapping
influence
Corporate
planning
Kappel, 2001
(Lucent Technologies)
Flexibility of roadmapping
Flexibility is a key strength (and challenge) of the roadmapping
approach, in terms of:
The wide range of aims that roadmapping can contribute towards
The timeframe covered by the roadmap (past and future)
The structure of the roadmap (layers and sub-layers), which can be adapted to
fit the particular application
The process that is followed to develop and maintain the roadmap/s
The graphical format that is selected to present information and communicate
the roadmap
The set of existing processes, tools and information sources in the firm, which
the roadmap and roadmapping process need to integrate with
Types of roadmap: purpose and format

Purpose
Capability
planning
Product
planning
Format
Bars
Multiple layers
Table
Strategic
planning
Single layer
Long range
planning
Generic TRM
Knowledge asset
planning
Graph
Text
Pictorial
Programme
planning
Process
planning
Flow
Integration
planning
Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives

Layers connect:
Past
Now
Plans
Future
Vision
Time
(know-when)
purpose
(know-why)
ke
t
Pu
ll
Market / Customers / Competitors /

Environment / Industry /
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /
Objectives / Milestones / Strategy
delivery
(know-what)
Other resources:
Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /
Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
lo
g
Te
ch
no
Technology /
Competences /
Knowledge
yp
us
M
ar
Products / Services / Applications /

Services / Capabilities / Performance /
Features / Components / Families /
Processes / Systems / Platforms /
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks
resources
(know-how)
Technology roadmaps
Examples of applications
Motorola
- To encourage business managers to give proper attention to the technological future
- To provide a vehicle for organising the forecasting process
- To communicate to design & development engineers and marketing personnel which
technologies will be required in future products
Lucas
- To provide integrated project planning for engineering systems
- To supply sound technological inputs to the budget process
Post Office Research Group

- To communicate the research plans to business sponsors
- To help focus and prioritisation of research activity
- To identify where expert knowledge is required in the future
Motorola Roadmap Matrix
- summary of product plans and technology forecast

Year
Tuning
Selectivity
1982
1983
Push button
Display
1985
1986
Push button - Synthesizers
Ceramic resonators
Subcarrier function
IC technology
1984
1988
LEDs
1991
Voice actuated
Data
Maps
3u CMOS
1u CMOS
Liquid crystal
Vehicular LAN
Fluorescence
Single wire
Digital modulation
PRODUCTS
1990
Digital signal processors
Paging
5u CMOS
1989
Touch pad - Synthesizers
SAWs
Stereo
Linear
1987
Glass fibre
500 kHz bandwidth
RECEIVER 1
RECEIVER 2
RECEIVER 3
Stereo
Plus:
Plus:
Scan
Personal
paging
Seek
NEXT GENERATION
FUTURE GENERATION
Plus:
A NEW SERVICE
Stock market
Road information
Remote
amplifiers
Remote controls
Super Hi Fi
Local maps
Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process

97
External
Influences
System
Demonstrator
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
External influences
4
1.
2.
3.
4.
.
Component /
Sub-system
Market Trends
a)
b)
Technology
Project
c)
d)
.
.
Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding
Activity Description
Market Trends Addressed
Principal Participants/Collaborators
Project Status
External Funding Source
Time Window
Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning

Business Planning
PP+TRMs
External :
Markets
Competitors
Technologies
...
GapAnalysis
Analysis
Gap
Gap
Analysis
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting
Acquisition
Planning
Make
Technology
Technology
Technology
Audit
Audit
Audit
Technology Base
R&D
Projects
Buy
Acquisitions
JVs
Licensing
Post Office Research - communicating & prioritising
Triggers /
issues
Time
Uncertain /
high impact
Germany
liberalised
Regulator
action?
Home shopping
takes off
New business Bespoke solutions Evolve
Market
trends
Existing products
& services
Best practice
E capability
Capabilities
Evolve
Increasing transport constraints,

environmental pressure, tolls, etc.
European reach
Global reach
(Europe & NA)
Timed dated products
Grow express
business
Cost reduction & efficiency improvements
EU
liberalised
Changing mail mix (> packets)

Ongoing
E-business fulfilment
Capacity & Evolve

efficiency
improvement
Network Evolve
competence
Flexible & dynamic

distribution network
Intelligent transport technologies
Routing & scheduling
Research
activity
Materials handling
Track & trace
Environmental
Key:
Requires investment
Colours relate to
existing sub-themes
Network integration
GAPS ?
Supply chain
E-access
12% reduction
in emissions
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping initiative

The overall goal of the technology roadmapping initiative was
to support the aims of the Foresight Vehicle consortium, providing
a framework for ongoing investment in UK research partnerships,
focused on achieving sustainable wealth creation and quality of life
This required identification of market and industry trends and
drivers that impact future requirements for road transport in the UK,
and the associated technology needs and opportunities
The roadmapping process encouraged communication and
discussion within a creative workshop environment and the
roadmap provides a framework for continuing this more broadly
in the future
Road transport system: key themes

Social
Economic
Environmental
Political
Infrastructural
Technological
Social, economic and

environmental drivers
reflect the three
cornerstones of
sustainable development
Technology, policy and
infrastructure
enable or constrain
progress towards the
social, economic and
environmental goals
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture

+5 years
Market /
Industry
drivers
+10 years
+15 years
Now
S
T
E
E
P
I
+20 years
Vision
Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties
Performance
measures
and targets
Evolution of required and desirable functional

performance of road transport systems of the future
Technical
Group areas
Required and desired technological response,

including research requirements
Time
Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: process

Engine and powertrain (E&PT)
Planning
(Oct 01)
Market
and
industry
trends
and
drivers
Road
transport
system
performance
measures
and targets
Hybrid, electric and alternatively

fuelled vehicles (HEV)
Consultation
Advanced software, sensors,

electronics and telematics (ASSET)
Synthesis
Advanced structures
and materials (FASMAT)
Design and manufacturing
Processes (DMaP)
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
10 month duration
10 workshops
More than 130 participants

More than 60 organisations
Reporting
(Sept 02)

Example
detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers
2002
2007
2012
80-85% of journeys
by car 39,40,103
75% of all journeys
are under 5 miles
and 45% are less
than 2 miles 31
Growth in personal mobility (70% of

drivers use car for leisure day trips
every week or month; 50% expect to be
making more by 2020) 42
Nearly one third of

UK households do
not have a car (13
million people) 31
Many different
stakeholder groups,
with different needs
from transport
system
Vehicles sold increasingly as

lifestyle choices ?
Increasing
complexity of
lives ?
Increasing female vehicle purchase /

ownership (women are more likely to
describe their cars as stylish, sporty or
fun) 42
Balance between
People and jobs
global, national
have moved out of
and local
the city and town
solutions ?
centres 103
Trend towards
career
downsizing for
improved
lifestyle ?
UK car-centric
culture
1999: UK leads
world in vehicle
theft (twice global
average at
2.5%); cost of
vehicle-related
crime 6bn 46,47
2000:
3,500 road traffic
deaths and 40,000
serious injuries in
UK, at an estimated
cost of 13.3bn
(40,000 deaths and
1.7 million injuries in
EU, representing a
cost of 2% of GDP)
8,37,39,40
Key:
Journey times increasing (70% longer

by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67
Increasing proportion of women in

paid employment (9.9 million in
1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73
More than half of drivers exceed speed
limits on motorways, dual carriageways
and residential roads 66
Individual
time
budget for
travel
remains
constant ?
2010: Passenger
numbers through
UK airports increase
by 50% 30
Between 8 and
20% of carowning
households
experience
vehicle-related
crime each year,
depending on
region 41
Mobility & congestion
Increasing
concern about
crime, security
and safety
Lifestyle & attitudes
2010: 50%
increase in rail
passenger miles 30
2031: 40% increase

in bus / coach
vehicle miles,
compared to 1996 1
2022: 70%
increase in journey
times in many UK
cities 1996 80
2010: 25% of UK
workforce
teleworking at
least two days per
week 57
Shift in social
attitudes to
speeding
Younger
generation more
IT-literate
2007: working at home becoming

common (currently more than 66%
of European organisations with more
than 500 employees already practice
teleworking) 28,39,40
Health, safety & security
New working /
living patterns
Legal issues and

frameworks ?
Shift from car ownership
to car access ?
Increased
use of car
pools ?
2015: 400 million

people live in
megacities of more
than 10 million
inhabitants 57
Social
attitudes
towards road
transport and
the
environment?
2016: 4 million (25%)

increase in housing (80%
single-person), increasing
demand for travel 1,67
Continued
growth of
cities and
towns, mainly
in South East
2022
2031: 57% increase in

UK road traffic,
compared to 1996 80,103
journeys 30
Increasing
mobile
working
Demographics
2015: 150%
increase in
international air
traffic; 100%
increase in
domestic,
compared to
1995 1
2012: Bicycle
2010: 20-50%
increase in European journeys
31
road passenger and double
13,80
haulage traffic
Frustration with congestion and public
2010: 10% increase transport continues ?
(journey time no longer predictable)
in bus passenger
Increasing
leisure time 39,40
More residential traffic calming schemes

and pedestrianisation of town centres
Demand to
reduce deaths
and injuries on
roads
2017
2016: 25% increase in

number of UK households,
80% of growth due to single
person households; 1.3%
rural land use predicted to
change to urban land use 39,40
2030: population
in the UK is
forecast to
increase by
3.3%, to 61
million 1,39,40,67,
after which it will
decline to 57
million by 2050 73
2030: 22- 27% of
UK population
over retirement
age, compared to
19% in 1998;
pension costs rise
from 4.5-5.5% of
GDP 1,25,39,40
2021: Households
in South-east
forecast to grow by
19% on 2001
levels 41
Vision
Cheap,
safe,
reliable,
clean
convenient,
comfortable
transport
for all
Example summary roadmap content:

Social trends & drivers
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Growing demand for mobility
Society
Congestion and pressure on infrastructure

Changing working and living patterns
Social attitudes towards

transport and the environment
Ageing population
Increased mobile and home working

More single person households
Continued growth of cities and towns
Consumer demand for greater variety, quality and performance of products and services
Increasing concern for health, safety and security
Continued growth of
South East
Cheap, safe,
convenient,
comfortable,
clean and
secure
transport
for all

Social performance measures & targets
Society
2002
Aim for
equitable
mobility
(same price
for same
journey for
all groups
in society)
2007
2005: 70% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes (measure
of convenience)
2012
2010: 80% user
satisfaction with
all transport
modes
2017
2022
2020: 85%
user
satisfaction
with all
transport
modes
2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5

- Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5
minutes
- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window
glass: 2 minutes
2005: Road
traffic noise
reduced by 3dBA
from 1998 levels
2010: Road traffic

noise reduced by
4dBA
2020: Road traffic noise reduced

by 6dBA;
Homologated noise reduction of
4dBA and 8dBA for light and
heavy vehicles, respectively
Vehicle
adaptability
Urban people
transport
Effective
selling and
customer
support

Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology
Hybrid, electric & alternatively

fuelled vehicles
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
Hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicle technology development, leading to new fuel and power systems,
such as hydrogen and fuel cells, which satisfy future social, economic and environmental goals
Increasing
variety and
use of hybrid,
electric,
multi-fuel and
alternatively
fuelled
vehicle
technologies,
and
development
of fuels and
infrastructure
Continuous improvement in terms of range, life, safety and

Pilot trials and local
performance; development of legislation and standards
fuel distribution
infrastructure
development
trucks and buses first
50kW fuel cells

and subsystems
200kW fuel cells

and subsystems
for heavy vehicles
Use of hydrogen in IC engines, and with

fuel cells as auxiliary power units
Development of electrics, electronics and battery
systems for new engine and powertrain systems
Development of supporting technologies (storage systems, compressors,
air supply, reforming, materials, thermal management, etc.)
Hydrogen fuel
cell
technology
and
infrastructure
becoming
viable on a
large scale
?
Sustainable
vehicle fuel
and engine
systems, that
meet the
needs of
society,
industry and
the
environment
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping

Aims:
To develop a first-cut technology roadmap for Faraday Partnership,
bringing together industrial and research communities
To collect, structure and share knowledge about recent and future
developments in markets and technology, together with requirements
and capabilities of future applications
To identify key emerging strategic issues, research challenges,
and way forward
Faraday Partnership technology roadmapping approach

Architecture
Now
Past
Trends &
drivers
Process
Plans
Future
1a) Map trends & drivers

1b) Map technology
1a
2a
2a
3
Applications
2b
Technology
1b
Vision
2b
2a) Application needs

2b) Application capabilities
3) Applications
- Map
- Research challenges
- Skills
- Way forward
Faraday Partnership technology roadmap process

Phase 1
Phase 2
Potential TRM modes
Detailed TRM
Summary TRM
Planning
1 day
Workshop
(knowledge
mapping &
strategic
review)
Review
meeting
Strategic TRM
Thematic TRM
Template TRM
Project TRM
Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information
Roll-out
Software for technology roadmapping

Software supports the roadmapping process, in terms of data storage
Integration and communication, particularly as the process matures
A number of systems are used:
MS PowerPoint or other graphics software
MS Project or other Gantt software
MS Excel or other spreadsheet software
US Office of Naval Research Graphical Modelling System (GMS) - free!
- http://www.onr.navy.mil/gms/gms.asp
The Learning Trust Geneva Vision Strategist - enterprise solution (Motorola)
- http://www.learningtrust.com
Useful references
Willyard and McClees (1987), Motorola's Technology Roadmap process, Research Management, Vol 30, No 5, pp13-19
EIRMA (1997) Technology Roadmapping - delivering business vision, Working Group Report No 52
Groenveld (1997) Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Research Technology Management, Vol 40, No. 5, pp. 48-55
Kostoff, R.N. (1997), Science and Technology Roadmaps, Defense Technical Information Center,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/kostoff/index.html
Garcia & Bray (1997) Fundamentals of technology roadmapping, Sandia National Lab, http://www.sandia/gov SAND97-0665
Schaller(1999) master roadmap bibliography: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rschalle/master.html
Kappel (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Vol 18, pp39-50
Research Technology Management - special edition on technology roadmapping, Vol 42, No. 2, March 2003 (5 papers, including
Domino Printing Sciences, Lucent Technologies, Roche and Rockwell Automation experience)
OEM Roadmaps - lots of links to (mainly) sector roadmaps: http://www.oemroadmaps.com
US Department of Energy guide to applying science and technology roadmapping in environmental management (Draft), DoE-EM50,
July 2000, http://emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/links.html
Australian guide to developing technology roadmaps - technology planning for business competitiveness, August 2001:
http://industry.gov.au/library/content_library/ 13_technology_road_mapping.pdf
Industry Canada - Technology roadmapping - a strategy for success, including a guide for government employees:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/intrm-crt.nsf/vwGeneratedInterE/Home
T-Plan fast-start approach
Roadmapping challenges
50
Response (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Starting up
the TRM
process
Developing a
robust TRM
process
Roll-out of
the TRM
process
Keeping the
TRM process
'alive' on an
ongoing
basis
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999
T-Plan aims
To support the start-up of company-specific TRM processes
To establish key linkages between technology resources and
business drivers
To identify important gaps in market, product and technology
intelligence
To develop a first-cut technology roadmap
To support technology strategy and planning initiatives in the firm
To support communication between technical and commercial
functions
http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/pubs/TPlan/index.htm
T-Plan Applications
Sector / product
Aims
Industrial coding (x3)

Postal services (x10)
Security / access systems
Labelling software
Surface coatings
Medical packaging (x2)
Automotive sub-systems
Power transmission
Railway infrastructure (x3)
National infrastructure
Building controls
Road transport
Technical consulting (x6)
Automotive / Aerospace
Academic (x2)
Biochemicals
Satellite navigation
Food processing
Pneumatic systems
Emerging technologies
Automotive
Retail (x2)
Construction
Product planning
Integration of R&D into business; business planning
Product planning
Product planning
New product development process
Business reconfiguration
Service development & planning
Business opportunities of new technology
Capital investment planning and technology insertion
Research programme planning
New product / service opportunity; business reconfiguration
Defining the national research agenda for the sector
New product / service development, strategy
Corporate co-operation and synergy
Strategic planning
Research priorities / network development
Innovation strategy
Research priorities
Innovation opportunities
Business and product strategy
Global production strategy
Fast-start TRM process

Standard and Customised process
Roadmapping
Standard process
Planning
Planning
Integrated
product-technology
strategic planning
Roll-out
Roll-out
Customised process
General strategic
planning
Standard T-Plan process

Procedure: 4 half-day workshops
Workshop 1
Market
Performance
dimensions
Market / business
drivers
Prioritisation
SWOT
Gaps
Setting up
the process
Workshop 2
Product
Product feature
concepts
Grouping
Impact ranking
Product strategy
Gaps
Workshop 3
Technology
Workshop 4
Roadmapping
Technology
solutions
Grouping
Impact ranking
Gaps
Linking
technology
resources to
future market
opportunities
Gaps
Managing the process
Following on
from the process
Roadmap input data & structure development

Technology
Roadmap
Technology solutions
Technology /
Resources
Product features
Analysis
Grids
Product features
Business / Market drivers
Business /
Market
Product /
Service /
Production
time
Example Market-Product grid (Softco)

Market
Softco
Ranking:
2
4
6
7
5
7
10
=1
= -1
Cell scores x Driver priority

Normalised: max score = 10
8.3
4.9
4. Services
5.0
4.1
3.8
5. Data management
10.0
10.0
3.0
6. Labelling
9.6
9.9
9.5
5.9
5.8
2.5
8. Flexible implementation
6.8
7.5
10.0
9. Softco requirements
0.7
0.8
2.7
10. User friendly
3.2
4.2
5.2
7. Global solution
C. Time to market
8.7
3. Compliance
B. No. 1
1.1
A. Reusability
4.2
8. Future proof
4.7
7. Connectivity
2. Validated software
6. Ease of use
4.5
5. Leading edge
4.8
4. Globalisation
5.5
3. Cost of trial
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
2. Integrity of trial
Softco
1
8
CRO
6
2
Major
Pharmaceutical
7
10
1 year after release
10
10
E. Improving bottom line
Market /
Business
Drivers
9
9
D. Motivation of staff
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
1. Time to market of drug
Prioritisation:
(scale of 10)
**
* 1 for difficulty, 2 for size ** Payback later
0.7
0.8
2.7
3.2
4.2
5.2
Ranking:
=1
= -1
Cell scores x Driver priority

Normalised: max score = 10
CRO
Softco
6.8
7.5
10.0
Major
Pharmaceutical
5.9
5.8
2.5
10. User friendly
9.6
9.9
9.5
9. Softco requirements
10.0
10.0
3.0
8. Flexible implementation
5.0
4.1
3.8
6. Labelling
8.7
8.3
4.9
5. Data management
Technology
Areas
1. Security
Product
Feature
Concepts
4.7
4.2
1.1
4. Services
5.5
4.8
4.5
3. Compliance
Major Pharmaceutical:
CRO:
Sofco
2. Validated software
Prioritisation:
- from Grid 1
(scale of 10)
7. Global solution
Example Product-Technology grid (Softco)
1. Alliances
7.8
7.6
7.2
2. System architecture
10.0
10.0
10.0
3. Design
7.1
7.2
7.1
4. Soft technologies
6.9
6.8
6.5
5. Output technologies
6.4
6.4
6.3
6. Securing technologies
8.6
8.4
7.6
8.3
8.2
7.5
7. Core technologies (re-use)
**
* must have
** -ve re-use past, + re-use future
Example first-cut technology roadmap (Softco)
Year 0
Market /
Business
Product Features
1. Security
Competitor
threat
Time out
security levels
User
rights
Digitally
signed labels TA6
Audit
trail
Advanced
automation
Form TA5
printing
Multi-language
database
Validated protocol
design module
TA7
6. Labelling
Labelling
Printer
XML data
libraries independent format
TA2
7. Global
Solution
UNICODE
TA2
8. Flexible
Implementation
Windows
platform
TA2
support
Customisable
Software
protection
User
documentation
2. Sys. Arch.
3. Design
4. Soft Tech.
5. Output Tech.
Domain expert
partner
Network of
contacts
Legal
expertise
Other bar- TA7

code types
User group
& conference
Graphic
User formatrepresentation
ting tool
of R&S phrases for forms
Global
support
TA1
Label set
libraries
Inter-site User-docs EU lang Email

security (EU lang) modules notifications
TA1 for UI
Far East TA1

XML data User-docs
WAP
language
(Far
East)
import / export
modules for UI
TA1
Multiple
Internet
platform
compatible
support
Web
enabled
Database partners
(harmonised phrases
& legislation)
CH / JAVA / CORBA
component architecture
Platform inde- Modular design
A
UML / OOD
spec. pendent design
Develop
Validatable Build
Dev.
Mngmnt
Test
eChem
sales
Team
team GNP procedures from
plan
tech.
model
(FDA)
source
stability leader
Report
generation
Protocol
design wizards
Enhanced
network of
contacts
Appoint
distributors
outside UK
ISO 9000
TickIT
On-line
tutorials
ERP
link
TCP / IP
CGI / ISAPI
Internet
updates
24 hour
support
Enhanced
report generation
Write once
technology
6. Securing Tech.
Enhanced
development
team stability
Scanning &
storage of
hand-written forms
Rapid &
Pipe ++
7. Core Tech.
Other
Resources
TA5 TA6
Database
escrow TA6
Biometric
passwords
TA2
10. User
Friendly
1. Alliances
Label
design
module
Watermarked
forms & reports
Billing &
inventory
management
Statistical
analysis
Secure
archiving
Windows
Code 39 & 128 Blinded
printers:
PDF 417
labels
PS / PCLS / PDF
barcodes TA7
Enhanced
randomisation
Upgrade path
for existing
users
Multi-level
training
4. Services
5. Data
Management
Phase 5 Year 3
Validated
Ver. 330
Validated
Ver. 2
Validated
Ver. 1
Protocol
Randomised
design module design package
Phase 4
Digital signatured
audit trail TA6
2.Validated
Software
3. Compliance
Phase 3 Year 2
Phase 2
Version 1
release Price: 10
-15K/seat
Competitor
threat? Market
launch
Legislation?
9. Company
Requirements
Technology Areas
Year 1
Phase 1
Raise
x million
Recruitment
software &
management
New
building
TAx = link to Technology

Area x
Group activity the bicycle of the future
Biko: Introduction
Biko, a small traditional but well regarded bicycle manufacturer
has just been taken over by a large sports equipment and
clothing manufacturer, Sportco
The new owner has requested a technology roadmap outlining
how Biko proposes to develop its market offering over the next
10 years, and if convinced by their business case is willing to
make significant investment
A preliminary market review and SWOT analysis have resulted
in two areas of potential interest being identified:
1. Power assisted bicycles
2. High performance lifestyle bicycles
Biko: Instructions
Read handout & follow step-by-step guidance
Step 1: Market & Business
Step 2: Product & Service
Step 3: Technology
Resources /
Other
Technology
Product
Business Market
(Internal) (external)
Drivers
Now
+2y
+5y
Time
+ 10 y
Feedback
What lessons have been learnt about roadmapping?
How would you take it forward from here?
Discussion - getting started
Planning
(customisation checklist)
Context: scope, focus, aims and resources
Roadmap architecture
Process
Participants
Standard process:
- Follow the guide
Customised process:
- Creative and collaborative
design activity
Workshop scheduling
Integration: systems, processes & information
Preparatory work
Roadmapping design: an iterative collaborative process

Focus, scope, aims
Plan
Business need
Domain
knowledge
dialogue
Business
owner
Architecture
TRM process
owner
Process
Implementing roadmapping
Individual planning & discussion
See planning sheet:
Objectives, scope, stakeholders, architecture, process,
information sources, key issues, next steps
Individually (or with colleagues) work through planning sheet

- 10 minutes
Pull out key points for discussion
Roadmapping success factors

Response (%)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Clear business need

Desire to develop effective business processes
Company culture & politics supported
participation / progress
Right people / functions were involved
Commitment from senior management
Required data / information / knowledge available
Timing of initiative was appropriate
Clear and effective process for developing TRM
Effective tools / techniques / methods
Effective facilitation / training
Other
Source: CTM survey, 1999
Communication roadmaps
What is the message?
Who are you communicating to?
Information representation / graphic design challenge,
drawing on detailed TRM focus on the story and
big picture
Conclusions
Benefits of roadmapping:
A focus for integrated strategic planning
Can be applied in a wide range of contexts
Supports communication and network development
Challenges of roadmapping:
Not a magic bullet - initially more questions than answers likely
Maintaining the process - the real benefit lies in its ongoing use
The process and roadmap typically need to be customised
Review
Has the workshop met your expectations?
Will you give roadmapping a try?
Any questions?
Further support:
Contact us: Rob Phaal at rp108@eng.cam.ac.uk
TRM User Group: http://www-mmd.eng.cam.ac.uk/ctm/trmug.htm
Close
Example Biko output
Product
Style
Comfort
+2y
New owner
- Investment
Demonstrator
Designer look
Ergonomic
design
Technology
On-line design
Customised frame
Direct drive
design Materials /
mechanics
Chip-on-bike
Networked
factory
Automatic
mass customisation
Ergonomics
CADCAM
Visualisation
Security
Communications
Alliances: gear / drive; styling; electronics

Skills
Capital
Branding & promotion
+ 10 y
2nd Generation
Design your own bike
Moulded
seat
Networked
business
Time
Legislation: VAT off bikes; cycle paths, etc.
New Range
Expand range
Electronics
Resources
/ Other
Competition
Trends: leisure, health, disposable income
Technical
Internet
+5y
Sportco
500-1000
Super-bike
Business Market
(Int.)
(Ext.)
Drivers
Now

07 TechnologyRoadmaps

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Centre for Technology Management

UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners

Centre for Technology Management

Centre for Technology Management

Technology roadmapping - principles & practice

T-Plan fast-start approach

Group activity - the bicycle of the future

Discussion - getting started

Review and close

Centre for Technology Management

Technology roadmapping principles & practice

Centre for Technology Management

Roadmapping - Planning for the Future

Capital investment / finance

Centre for Technology Management

Technology roadmapping process

Facilitate the integration of new technology into the business

Centre for Technology Management

Time is a key dimension

Centre for Technology Management

Technology as a dynamic resource

Shape influenced by:

Adapted from Bower & Christensen, 1995

Courtney et al (HBR, 1997)

3. Reserve the right to play

2. Adapt to the future

1. Shape the future

Centre for Technology Management

Evolution of long range planning approaches

Futures & Scenario planning

Centre for Technology Management

Where are the

Source: EIRMA, 1997

Centre for Technology Management

- How to reach a goal?

- What opportunities could arise?

Centre for Technology Management

The fast-start concept:

roadmapping as an ongoing process

Centre for Technology Management

Centre for Technology Management

Types of roadmap: purpose and format

Centre for Technology Management

Generic roadmap - links resources to objectives

Market / Customers / Competitors /

Products / Services / Applications /

Centre for Technology Management

Post Office Research Group

Centre for Technology Management

Motorola Roadmap Matrix

- summary of product plans and technology forecast

Push button - Synthesizers

Digital signal processors

Touch pad - Synthesizers

Centre for Technology Management

Lucas roadmaps - a required input to the budget process

Centre for Technology Management

Lucas Technology Road-map activity coding

Market Trends Addressed

External Funding Source

Centre for Technology Management

Lucas - linking Technology to Business Planning