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n−k
P ( X = k ) = ( ) p (1 − p)
n
k
k
where k = 0,1,2,....n
k −λ
k
(np ) e − np
λe
≅ =
k! k!
• Which is the Poisson distribution, with λ=np
• Expected value = variance = λ
Poisson Distribution
• dpois(18,7)
• [1] 0.0002319329
• ppois(18-1,7,lower.tail=FALSE)
• [1] 0.0003617843
• Disease counts
1 M a b
0 F c d
• “Poisson model for the relative risk (and rate ratios etc)
postulates that the logarithm of the probability of disease is
a linear function of the risk factors”
Poisson Model
Group Gender “Cases” Not “Cases”
1 M a b
0 F c d
and e b = rr
lastly, need to note
log(rate ) = a + b*Exposure
i i
casesi
log = a + b*Exposurei
totali
log (casesi ) − log (totali ) = a + b*Exposurei
log (casesi ) = a + b*Exposurei + log (totali )