Contribution to

Wapor 68th Annual Conference

Buenos Aires, Argentina
June 16 - 19, 2015
"The Networks of Public
Opinion: New Theories, New
Methods"

Public opinion leaderships

analysis using methods of
social network analysis (SNA)

Miguel Oliva. Sociologist, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires; Professor

Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero. Phd. Candidate at UBA.
Professor in Maestra en Generacin y anlisis de Informacin Estadstica and
Maestra en Investigacin Social, Universidad de Bologna, Buenos Aires.

Introduction
This paper addresses the issue of the
application of formal models using
methods of social networks analysis (SNA)
to political leadership analysis.

Study of political leadership

today
Issues:
How is leadership studied with polls?
How can we study leadership and
networks with SNA?
How can we use social network
models (and the idea of latent or
potential networks models) in these
analyses?

Leaderships are important in politics.

How do we study today leaderships in
public opinion polls?

For political action, it is useful to identify influential

leaders.
In 1944, the great methodologist Paul Lazarsfeld, published "The
People's Choice" (1944) and "Voting" (1954). There the "opinion
leaders" were studied within a network of relationships of
direction of public opinion; constituting competitive leadership
circuits in the community. In such a network it is possible to
isolate and identify those individuals who are closest to occupy a
central position relations, the so called "opinion leaders"; they
are of greater interest and competence in the field of discussion,
and representativeness within those influenced.
Today, most adequate methodology for studying this subject, is
the social network analysis, whose techniques can detect
individuals with greater influence and centrality (nodes with
greater centrality in terms of these theories).

Political leaders

Political parties have leaders who deal with and respond to social
demands. Usually (but not always), the most important leaders of
political parties are the presidents, with a symbolic importance for
the political party.
At the same time, and in the words of Luhmann (1991), the
language has a structural coupling with consciousness; and in that
sense, there is awareness (consciousness) because there is
language, and vice versa.
So, what politicians say is evaluated in relation to their actions (i.e.,
it is analyzed to what extent their language is associated with his
conscience, or in other terms, the correspondence between what
they say and what they will do), in the same way as other social
leaders (rabbis , priests, community leaders).
Political discussions between leaders of different political
orientations tend to reproach mismatch between saying and doing.

Political leaders in Latin America

In Latin America it has been very common to have
strong leaderships, in the nineteenth century
(caudillos, etc.), and populism in twentieth century.
Many of these leadership structures are observed
leaders in various forms of populism in Latin America.
Current methods of measurement of opinion about
leaders in polls are insufficient for analyzing these
leadership structures.

Leaders evaluation
When a leader is analyzed and rated, it is necessary to consider
different types of opinions, usually transmitted in semantic scales
as very good, good, fair, bad, very bad; they are usually
summarized as positive (very good, good) and negative (bad, very
bad) image. Or, respondents are asked to evaluate the leaders on
a simple 0-10 scale (0=strongly dislike and 10=strongly like).
Some individuals who know the leader A, do not have sufficient
information to evaluate him. Also we find people who do not know
about the leader A. In that regard, it is relevant to consider the
knowledge and ignorance of the leader; it is assumed that the
greater the knowledge (visibility) of a leader, the greater is his
political capital or influence.
One way of analyzing this information is simply to calculate a
share of positive assessments of the negative.

Evaluation of leaders in
polls
Evaluation scale (1-10)
Respo
ndent

Leade
rA

Leade
rB

Leade
rC

10

Today we study leadership as the image of a political

leader. This is performed with usual databases, with
units of analysis, variables and data.

Evaluation scale: 0-10 scale

(0=strongly dislike and
10=strongly like).
We can summarize means,
standard deviation (how
much heterogeneous is a
leader evaluation -polarization between those
who love or hate the
leader --.
Correlations between
evaluations.

Matriz de Correlaciones: Imagen de lderes polticos de Amrica Latina

TABAR

FIDEL CASTRO

LUIZ IGNACIO

VASQUEZ

TABAR VASQUEZ

Sig. (2-tailed)

N
R Pearson
FIDEL CASTRO

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

LUIZ IGNACIO LULA DA

SILVA

R Pearson
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson

HUGO CHVEZ

Sig. (2-tailed)
N
R Pearson

MICHELLE BACHELET

Sig. (2-tailed)

N
R. Pearson

EVO MORALES

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

MICHELLE

LULA DA SILVA

R Pearson

HUGO CHVEZ

22694
,213

**

,423**

,231**

,449**

,354**

,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

,382

,656

,298

**

,385**

22694

22694

,423

,382

,000

BACHELET

,213**

,000

**

EVO MORALES

**

**

**

,000

,000

,000

,000

22694

22694

22694

22694

,415

,531

**

,565**

,000

,000

,000

,000

**

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

,231**

,656**

,415**

,344**

,469**

,000

,000

,000

,000

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

,449**

,298**

,531**

,344**

,580**

,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

22694

,354**

,385**

,565**

,469**

,580**

,000

,000

,000

,000

22694

22694

22694

22694

,000
22694

22694

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Here we see that the evaluation of Hugo Chavez is correlated with the evaluation of
Fidel Castro. Source: Latinobarmetro

 Data from network analysis has a

different format, capturing relations
between nodes:

Political networks

Political social networks

Populist Latin-American political leaders created latent networks similar to

religious connections, which have long outlived their leaders (i. e. peronismo).
The leader builds connections, and the nodes connect through them.
Populism leadership usually aims to replace the lack of economic influence (for
instance workers or poor people) with political power.
These potential networks have also an intergenerational extent, and include
central nodes occupied by individuals (leaders) who are no longer alive.
For a social leader, sometimes death is usually a booster of the connections
properties; the connections are not interfered by vital decision of the leader,
and so there is no interference between the nodes connected by the central
node. Everyone may connect through a dead node, but the dead node will
connect with no one. Peronismo in Argentina is a network with a central
(node), a non-living leader (Pern). Maybe Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has
developed a similar latent network. The central node is a bridge of connections
between other members of this network, and a source of political power.

Individuals are connected through a leader.

This is a star network. Node a connects to b through Lider. In a similar way, in a prophetic and monotheistic religions a central node (deity) connects believers .
Where the ties among actors have been measured as a value (rather than just present-absent), the magnitude of the tie can be suggested by using thicker lines to represent stronger ties, and
thinner lines to represent weaker ties (as node f in the graph). Sometimes ties are measured as negative-neutral-positive (-1, 0, +1) in the relation with the leader, as grouped ordinal (5=very
strong, 4=strong, 3= moderate, 2=weak, 1=very weak, 0=absent), full-rank order (10=strongest tie of 10, 9=second strongest tie of 10, etc.), or interval (e.g. dollars, bolivares or pesos flowing
from a central political organization to a clientelistic political network participant).

MULTIPLE CENTRALITY MEASURES (OLD)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Input dataset:
Normalized Centrality Measures

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

a
b
c
d
e
f
Lider

lider (C:\Users\Usuario\Documents\UCINET data\lider)

1
2
3
4
Degree
Closeness Betweenness Eigenvector
------------ ------------ ------------ -----------16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
16.667
54.545
0.000
40.825
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000

Historically first and conceptually simplest measure isdegree centrality, which is defined as the number of links incident upon a node
(i.e., the number of ties that a node has). The degree can be interpreted in terms of the immediate risk of a node for catching whatever is
flowing through the network (such as a virus, or some information). In the case of a directed network (where ties have direction), we
usually define two separate measures of degree centrality, namelyindegreeandoutdegree.
Betweennessis a centrality measure of avertexwithin agraph. Betweenness centrality quantifies the number of times a node acts as
a bridge along the shortest path between two other nodes.

Political connections through leaders

An important political leader creates symbolic (badges, songs)

and material (money, resources, budget control) connections
between his followers.
Sometimes, this membership to a political movement or
organization creates a meaning of life for the members and
followers.
This type of network is usually not influenced by political
marketing initiatives and classical political advertising or
campaigns.
Typically a populist political network with a central leader can be
modeled as centralized.
Also, we can measure the network centralization; a star network
is centralized.

100 nodes star network

Even if the political leader is dead, and the node has not a
physical existence, all the other nodes and relationships between
them are strictly empirical. Between two individuals who share
the same leader, a potential connection exists, mediated through
the leader.

Political networks
A political network is usually not superimposable with other
political network. They are positional (a political position). If a
person is leftist, he cannot be at the same time right wing. If you
are a democrat you cannot be at the same time, republican.
This relates to the concept of spatial voting; and positions in
politics. Also, in Schmitt (1966) we find his best-known
formulation, the distinction between friend and enemy (Schmitt,
1996, p. 27); this concept is similar to that of non
superimposable networks.
In a similar way, religion networks are not superimposable. You
cannot be catholic and muslim at the same time.
Usually people who are not in political networks are undecided
in voting decision.

Coordination and power

In social activity, coordination and star like networks
are usually associated with power. A coordinated
group with a central node or leader, is more powerful.
The leader has a role in power construction. In some
historical circumstances, the main objective of the
members of an organized group is to be coordinated
(adept, affiliates, voters, union members); in this
cases, the ideological or philosophical orientation of
the leaders, or if there are o not corrupt, may become
less important, regarding the main objective of the
members: to be coordinated, and to maintain a latent
network cohesive in time.

In lationamerican history we can find caudillos, a term used to

refer to a leader whether political, military or ideological.
In a broad sense this term is used for any person making guiding
others on any terrain, but the word caudillo has a certain
political connotation, usually used as a reference to political
leaders of the 19th and 20th centuries.
The emergence in the 19th century of numerous warlords in
various South American countries, was a social phenomenon
called caudillismo (some of them, Jos Gervasio Artigas,
ngel Vicente Pealoza, Sergio Arboleda (Colombia).

 Social networks

Social networks
Social networks are interactions between
nodes, connected with different kind of social
interdependency.

Formalizations and models can be applied

to the analysis and visualization of social
networks, with specific software (v.g.
UCINET, Hanneman, 2008; Pajek, Igraph R
language - ).
In networks analysis we can formalize social
interaction occurring simultaneously, or
changes in these networks.

 Latent social networks

Potential or latent networks

A real connection is different from a potential connection. A
potential or latent network can be thought as a set of possible
relations i. e. the arrangement of organizational roles in an
institution is as a potential or latent network between its
members --.
Religions are potential or latent networks.
In prophetic religions, faithful are potentially connected through
central nodes (usually deities or gods).
We can also describe languages as potential networks. An
individual who speaks a language participates in a potential
network of semantic conventions. If you are Spanish speaking,
you can potentially interact in different ways with other speakers
of that language. If you are not, you will be not included in that
potential network. If is the use of a language is more widespread,
the corresponding potential network is bigger. That is the reason
for what we want to study english, more often than African
dialects.

Latent and
saturated
Networks
In the Figure a
network of four nodes
is represented with
program UCINET (a,
b, c, d) that have all
the six possible
bidirectional
connections among
them. We call this
connection a
saturated connection
-- it has all the
possible interactions
--. Usually a latent
networks has this
characteristic.

Individuals are usually engaged in various latent

social networks.
Usually the opinion of an individual are influenced by his
membership to different potential social networks.
The opinions (and voting) usually are influenced by social
networks inclusion.

Political networks tend to overlap with other latent social

networks.

We detect two problems:

a) To be or not in a latent
network.
b) Once in the latent network,
to interact or not to interact
with the other nodes.
Problems a) and b) are
different:

a) A simple example would be to participate or not

in a social network (regardless of the connections
you establish with other members of that
network). Once you are a registered in Facebook or
Twitter, you can potentially interact with all the
possible connections (although nobody interacts
with all the possible connections in this social
network, simply because they are too much). This
is problem a).
Another example is to refer or not to certain object
with a specific and arbitrary word (such as tree,
or rbol); that is for example, being spanish speaking or not.
In the same way, you may find people interacting
or not with political movements.
b) Once connected to the network (facebook in the
example, or political movements) you establish
different real interactions with other people in that
social network. Or if you are English speaking, you
communicate with other people who speak
English.

Problem a: to be or not a supporter of a political movement

(peronista / no peronista), use or not a word (language),
exchange of goods in a network (money).

Examples of latent networks:

A religion with a monotheistic God can be understood as unidirectional
interactions of the nodes to a central node (God) which form a network.
This central node usually has a subjective, or spiritual existence. The
effects are similar to those of node that has an empirically verifiable
existence. Connections between living believers in that God really exist.
The central node Deity (or God) creates potential connections between
believers.
If you own money of a specific currency you can interact in different
ways (i.e. buy something) in a potential network usually referred as a
market--, in which all of the nodes have a potential agreement to
exchange goods or services using that currency. If you do not own that
currency, you are not included in this particular potential network.
Even there is no central node in this kind of network, we find that some
people have more money, or control more resources, and so they have
more monetary interactions.
In the same way, social classes could be studied as latent networks,
usually with less organizational basis (i.e. there is no managers or chiefs
of the working class, but there are classist political organizations).

Usually, political networks reproduction should be coordinated

and not conflictive with other existing potential social networks.
Political leaders of mass parties in competitive democracies, are
compelled or required not to be competitive with the potential
social networks that already exist; they cannot be conflictive (or
should have a condescending attitude) with social networks already
existing in a community as religion, monetary interchanges,
language, or racial - genetics networks.
Successful political leaders usually mount on existing social
networks, rather than creating new ones, since these networks
usually develop in the history of a country, and outlive the leaders
short human life.

In a catholic country, it is conflictive to have a Muslim president

(this is the problem treated by Houllebecq in Submission, a story
premised on voting between a FN candidate and an Islamic
candidate in France). Or a president with conflictive plans with a
network of monetary exchanges (abolish private property, i.e.), or
in a language speaking country an English speaking president, or in
a country with racial Anglo-Saxon predominance , a black president
is a strange event.
A Nation can be understood also as a latent network.
International ideas as communism are sometimes conflictive with
the national scope and latent network (as we find in the peronist
movement). In some cases, these latents networks have an
international scope, like communist, socialist, and other
organizations with leftist ideas. Usually in caudillismo and
nationalistic populistic movements, the scope is national, and with
territorial references (which in its international scope usually
communism or socialism do not have).
The opinion of an individual are influenced by his membership to
different potential social networks. Opinions (and voting) usually

10 nodes random network

Random networks do not describe the usual situation of a populist leadership with a central node.

Random network 200 nodes

A complete random network of 200 nodes shows the complexity of

complete networks. Imagine networks of populations as 3 in CABA, 3
millions. There are impossible to study in a complete format.

Ego Nets

Because of this problem, we should use Ego network.

Surveys may be used to collect information on ego networks. We can ask
each research subject to identify all of the actors to whom they have a
connection, and to report to us (as an informant) what the ties are among
these other actors. Alternatively, we could use a two-stage snowball
method; first ask ego to identify others to whom ego has a tie, then ask
each of those identified about their ties to each of the others identified.
Data collected in this way cannot directly inform us about the overall
embeddedness of the networks in a population, but it can give us
information on the prevalence of various kinds of ego networks in even very
large populations.
When data are collected this way, we essentially have a data structure that
is composed of a collection of networks. As the actors in each network are
likely to be different people, the networks need to be treated as separate
actor-by-actor matrices stored as different data sets.
Robert A. Hanneman (Department of Sociology, University of California, Riverside) and Mark Riddle (Department of Sociology, University
of Northern Colorado)

Introduction to Ego Network Analysis 2008 Halgin & De

Network characteristics
These network models can show different
characteristics.
Suppose to interact or not in a network it is equally
probable (0.5, or 1 / 2).
If each of the four individuals (a, b, c, d) has a
probability of 1 / 2 to interact with the network (i.e.,
to be or not to be in a social movement), the
probability of a saturated connection is equal to 1 /
16 (0.0625).

The probability
decreases
exponentially.
With these
assumptions, the
probability of a
network of 7
simultaneous
interactions
(similar to Figure 2)
is 1 / 128,
0.007812.

Figure 2

Language
One of the specificities of human
societies is its coordination
through generalization of symbols,
such as money (Parsons, 1982).

In a language network the use of a

particular symbol to designate an
object, a symbolic coding of an
object is a connection; the coding is a
arbitrary word (tree, or arbol,
arbre, Baum) in a language.
Use of the word "tree" in this network
corresponds to a 1, and the contrary
- not using this word - carries a 0.
A spontaneous coordination of the
use of a word - an arbitrary code - for
addressing an object is very unlikely.
Also, a word used by a greater
number of individuals, it more
unlikely that a less widespread word.

Suppose we have a dichotomic value of connecting

to Facebook or not. If we suppose a probability of
connection, say, (we do not actually know this
probability, but we know it is a number between 0
and 1).
For 500 million users of the social network, we
have a probability of 1 / 2 ^ 500.000.000, a very
low probability. This kind of modeling shows how
strange is social coordination.
Also, these figures suggest the fact that we need
highly sophisticated social technology for
coordination of social action (political leadership,
language, money, and others).
Configuration of latent networks have different
probabilities.

Conclusions
Leadership studied with polls
nowadays, can be enriched by the
analysis of networks with SNA.
By introducing the idea of social
network and Latent or potential
networks Models, the leadership
analysis is enriched.

Conclusions
Individuals are usually engaged in various latent social
networks: economic and monetary exchange, language,
religion. Social classes should be studied as latent
networks, usually with less organizational basis.
The opinions (and voting) usually are influenced by social
networks inclusion.
Political networks tend to overlap with other potential social
networks.
Usually the opinion of an individual are influenced by his
membership to different potential social networks.

 Political networks are typically not conflictive with other

existing potential social networks.
Political leaders of mass parties in competitive democracies,
are compelled to coordinate opinions and visions with the
potential social networks that already exist; usually they
cannot be conflictive with monetary interchanges, language,
religions, or racial - genetics networks already existing.
Successful political leaders usually mount on existing social
networks, rather than creating new ones; these networks
usually are developed in long periods of the history of a
country or culture, and outlive the leaders short human life.

Conclusions
A statistical model of a social
phenomenon may clarify a theory
(explanatory function), and also to
represent a recurring process in abstract
form (Farraro, 1997, op. cit), enriching
the dominant systematic empiricism of
the social sciences (Willer, 1996).
Formalization helps us understand the
nature of the phenomenon.

Conclusions
The development of models of SNA (Socio
centric or Ego centric ) and the collection of
data about networks is potentially useful, and
may improve the understanding of
phenomena such as power, public opinion,
political leadership and political movements.
Including modeling, even without a direct
reference to empirical observable data, helps
to improve the understanding of social
phenomena and to increase the relevance of
social science.

Thank you
moliva@untref.edu.ar

https://neotvlab.academia.edu/MiguelOliva