Transportation Planning

and Traffic Estimation

CE 453 Lecture 5
Objectives
1.Identify highway system components
2.Define transportation planning
3.Recall the transportation planning process and
its design purposes
4.Identify the four steps of transportation
demand modeling and describe modeling basics.
5.Explain how transportation planning and
modeling process results are used in highway
design.
Highway System Components
1. Vehicle
2.Driver (and peds./bikes)
3.Roadway
4. Consider characteristics, capabilities, and
interrelationships in design

Start with demand needs (number of lanes?)

Transportation Planning
(one definition)
Activities that:
1.Collect information on performance
2.Identify existing and forecast future
system performance levels
3.Identify solutions

Focus: meet existing and forecast travel

demand
Where does planning fit in?
Transportation Planning
in Highway Design
1. identify deficiencies in system
2.identify and evaluate alternative alignment
impacts on system
3.predict volumes for alternatives
in urban areas model? smaller cities may not
need (few options)
in rural areas use statewide model if available
else: see lab 3-type approach (note Iowa is
developing a statewide model)
Truck Traffic
Planning at 3 levels
State STIP Statewide Transportation
Improvement Program (list of projects)
Regional MPO Metropolitan Planning
Organization (>50,000 pop.), 25 year
long range plan and TIP (states now also
do LRP)
Local project identification and
prioritization
Four Steps of Conventional
Transportation Modeling

1.Trip Generation
2.Trip Distribution
3.Mode Split
4. Trip Assignment
Study Area
Clearly define the area under consideration
Where does one entity end?
May be defined by county boundaries, jurisdiction,
town centers
Study Area
May be regional
Metropolitan area Des Moines including
suburbs, Ankeny, etc.
Overall impact to major street/highway network
Local e.g., impact of trips to new Ames mall
Impact on local street/highway system
Impact on intersections
Need for turning lane or new signal can a model do
this level of detail?
Study Area
Links and nodes
Simple representation of the geometry of
the transportation systems (usually major
roads or transportation routes)
Links: sections of roadway (or railway)
Nodes: intersection of 2+ links
Centroids: center of TAZs
Centroid connectors: centroid to roadway
network where trips load onto the network
Travel Analysis Zones (TAZs)
Homogenous urban activities (generate same types
of trips)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
May be as small as one city block or as large as 10
sq. miles
Natural boundaries --- major roads, rivers, airport
boundaries
Sized so only 10-15% of trips are intrazonal
www.sanbag.ca.gov/ planning/subr_ctp_taz.html
 Four Steps of Conventional
Transportation Modeling
Divide study area into study zones
4 steps
Trip Generation
-- decision to travel for a specific purpose (eat lunch)
Trip Distribution
-- choice of destination (a particular restaurant? The
nearest restaurant?)
Mode Choice
-- choice of travel mode (by bike)
Network Assignment
-- choice of route or path (Elwood to Lincoln to US 69)
Model Step #1

Trip
Generation
Trip Generation
Calculate
number of trips generated in
each zone
500 Households each making 2 morning
trips to work (avg. trip ends ~ 10/day!)
Worker leaving job for lunch
Calculate
number of trips attracted to
each zone
Industrial center attracting 500 workers
McDonalds attracting 200 lunch trips
Trip Generation
Number of trips that begin from or
end in each TAZ
Trips for a typical day

Trips are produced or attracted

# of trips is a function of:

TAZs land use activities

Socioeconomic characteristics of TAZ
population
Trip Generation

Caliper Corp. ModelManager 2000

Trip Generation
3 variables related to the factors that influence trip
production and attraction (measurable variables)
Density of land use affects production & attraction
Number of dwellings, employees, etc. per unit of land
Higher density usually = more trips
Social and socioeconomic characters of users influence
production
Average family income
Education
Car ownership
Location
Traffic congestion
Environmental conditions
Trip Generation
Trip purpose
Zonal trip making estimated separately by trip
purpose
School trips
Work trips
Shopping trips
Recreational trips
Travel behavior depends on trip purpose
School & work trips are regular (time of day)
Recreational trips highly irregular
Trip Generation
Forecast # of trips that produced or attracted by each
TAZ for a typical day
Usually focuses on Monday - Friday
# of trips is forecast as a function of other variables
Attraction
Number and types of retail facilities
Number of employees
Land use
Production
Car ownership
Income
Population (employment characteristics)
Trip Purpose
Trips are estimated by purpose (categories)
Work
School
Shopping
Social or recreational
Others (medical)
Travel behavior of trip-makers depends somewhat on trip purpose
Work trips
regular
Often during peak periods
Usually same origin/destination
School trips
Regular
Same origin/destination
Shopping recreational
Highly variable by origin and destination, number, and time of day
Household Based
Trips based on households rather than individual
Individual too complex
Theory assumes households with similar characteristics
have similar trip making characteristics
However
Concept of what constitutes a household (i.e. 2-parent
family, kids, hamster) has changed dramatically
Domestic partnerships
Extended family arrangements
Single parents
Singles
roommates
Trip Generation Analysis
3 techniques
Cross-classification
Covered in 355
Multiple regression analysis
Mathematical equation that describes trips as a
function of another variable
Similar in theory to trip rate
Wont go into
Trip-rate analysis models
Average trip-production or trip-attraction rates for
specific types of producers and attractors
More suited to trip attractions
Trip attractions
 Example: Trip-rate analysis models

For 100 employees in a retail shopping center, calculate

the total number of trips
Home-based work (HBW) =
100 employees x 1.7 trips/employee = 170
Home-based Other (HBO) =
100 employees x 10 trips/employee = 1,000
Non-home-based (NHB) =
100 employees x 5 trips/employee = 500

Total = 170 + 1000 + 500 = 1,670 daily trips

Model Step #2

Trip
Distribution
Trip Distribution
Predicts where trips go from each TAZ
Determines trips between pairs of zones
Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j
Function of attractiveness of TAZ j
Size of TAZ j
Distance to TAZ j
If 2 malls are similar (in the same trip
purpose), travelers will tend to go to closest
Different methods but gravity model is most popular
Trip Distribution
Determines trips between pairs of zones
Tij: trips from TAZ i going to TAZ j
Function of attractiveness of TAZ j
Size of TAZ j
Distance to TAZ j
If 2 malls are similar, travelers will
tend to go to closest
Different methods but gravity model is most
popular
Trip Distribution

Caliper Corp. Maricopa County

 Gravity Model
Tij = Pi AjFijKij

Qij = total trips from i to j

Pi = total number of trips produced in zone i, from trip
generation AjFijKij
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j, from trip
generation
Fij = impedance (usually inverse of travel time), calculated
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for pair ij
Model Step #3

Mode Choice
Mode Choice
Inmost situations, a traveler has a
choice of modes
Transit, walk, bike, carpool, motorcycle,
drive alone
Mode choice/mode split determines #
of trips between zones made by auto
or other mode, usually transit
Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice
Availability of parking
Income
Availability of transit
Auto ownership
Type of trip
Work trip more likely transit
Special trip trip to airport or baseball stadium served
by transit
Shopping, recreational trips by auto
Stage in life
Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent

39
Characteristics Influencing
Mode Choice
Cost
Parking costs, gas prices, maintenance?
Transit fare
Safety
Time
Transit usually more time consuming (not in NYC or DC
)
Image
In some areas perception is that only poor ride transit
In others (NY) everyone rides transit

40
Mode Choice Modeling
A numerical method to describe how
people choose among competing
alternatives (dont confuse model and
modal)
Highly dependent on characteristics of
region
Model may be separated by trip
purposes
Utility and Disutility Functions
Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from
choices
Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of the
independent variables of their transformation
U = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + .. + arXr

U: utility derived from choice

Xr: attributes
ar: model parameters
Logit Models
Calculatesthe probability of selecting
a particular mode

p(K) = ____eUk__
eUk

p: probability of selecting mode k

Logit Model Example 1
Utility functions for auto and transit
U = ak 0.35t1 0.08t2 0.005c
ak = mode specific variable
Do you agree with
t1 = total travel time (minutes) the relative
magnitude of the
t2 = waiting time (minutes) time parameters? Is
there double
counting/colinearity?
c = cost (cents)
 Logit Model Example 1 (cont)
Travel characteristics between two zones
Variable Auto Transit
Do you agree with
ak -0.46 -0.07 the relative
magnitude of the
t1 20 30 mode specific
parameters? How
t2 8 6 much effect does
cost have?
c 320 100

Uauto = -0.46 0.35(20) 0.08(8) 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 0.35(30) 0.08(6) 0.005(100) = -11.55

 Logit Model Example 1 (cont)
Uauto = -9.70

Utransit = -11.55

Logit Model:

p(auto) = ___eUa __ = _____e-9.70 ____ = 0.86

eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55

p(transit) = ___eUt __ = _____e-11.55 ____ = 0.14

eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55
 Logit Model Example 2
The city decides to spend money to create and improve
bike trails so that biking becomes a viable option, what
percent of the trips will be by bike?
Assume:
A bike trip is similar to a transit trip
A bike trip takes 5 minutes more than a transit trip but
with no waiting time
After the initial purchase of the bike, the trip is free
 Logit Model Example 2 (cont)
Travel characteristics between two zones
Variable Auto Transit Bike
ak -0.46 -0.07 -0.07
t1 20 30 35
t2 8 6 0
c 320 100 0

Uauto = -0.46 0.35(20) 0.08(8) 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 0.35(30) 0.08(6) 0.005(100) = -11.55

Ubike = -0.07 0.35(35) 0.08(0) 0.005(0) = -12.32

 Logit Model Example 2 (cont)
Uauto = -9.70, Utransit = -11.55, Ubike = -12.32 Notice that auto
lost share even
though its utility
Logit Model: stayed the same

p(auto) = _____eUa ____ = _______e-9.70 ______ = 0.81

eUa + eUt +eUb e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32

p(transit) = _____eUt__ __ = ______e-11.55 ______ = 0.13

eUa + eUt +eUb e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32

p(bike) = _____eUt__ __ = ________e-11.55 ______ = 0.06

eUa + eUt +eUb e-9.70 + e-11.55 + e-12.32
Model Step #4
Traffic Assignment
(Route Choice)

Caliper Corp.
Trip Assignment
Trip makers choice of path between
origin and destination
Path: streets selected

Transit: usually set by route

Results in estimate of traffic volumes

on each roadway in the network
Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips
Trip generation step calculated total person
trips
Trip assignment deals with volume not
person trips
Need to adjust person trips to reflect
vehicle trips
Understand units during trip generation
phase
Person Trips vs. Vehicle Trips
Example
Usually adjust by average auto occupancy
Example:
If:
average auto occupancy = 1.2

number of person trips from zone 1 = 550

So:
Vehicle trips = 550 person trips/1.2 persons per vehicle =
458.33 vehicle trips
Time of Day Patterns
Trip generation usually based on 24-
hour period
LOS calculations usually based on
hourly time period
Hour, particularly peak, is often of
more interest than daily
Time of Day Patterns
Common time periods
Morning peak
Afternoon peak
Off-peak
Calculation of trips by time of day
Use of factors (e.g., morning peak may be
11% of daily traffic)
Estimate trip generation by hour
Minimum Path
Theory: users will select the quickest
route between any origin and destination
Several route choice models (all based on
some minimum path)
All or nothing
Multipath
Capacity restraint
Minimum Tree
Starts at zone and selects minimum path to each
successive set of nodes
Until it reaches destination node

2
(3) (2)
(7)
1 5
4
(4) (4)
3

Path from 1 to 5
Minimum Tree
2
(3) (2)
(7)
1 5
4
(4) (4)
3
1. Path from 1 to 5 first passes thru 4
2. First select minimum path from 1 to 4 See CE451/551
notes for more on
3. Path 1-2-4 has impedance of 5 shortest path
computations
4. Path 1-3-4 has impedance of 8 several methods are
available
5. Select 1-2-4
All or Nothing
Allocates all volume between zones to
minimum path based on free-flow link
impedances
Does not update as the network loads

Becomes unreliable as volumes and

travel time increases
Multi-Path
Assumes that all traffic will not use shortest path
Assumes that traffic will allocate itself to
alternative paths between a pair of nodes based on
costs
Uses some method to allocate percentage of trips
based on cost
Utility functions (logit)
Or some other relationship based on cost
As cost increases, probability that the route will
be chosen decreases
Capacity Restraint
Once vehicles begin selecting the
minimum path between a set of nodes,
volume increase and so do travel times
Original minimum paths may no longer
be the minimum path
Capacity restraint assigns traffic
iteratively, updating impedance at
each step
 Sizing
Facilities
Sizing Facilities
Sizing Facilities