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  • 999 Bonus MinePlanningUnderUncertainty SIPLAMIN Marinho

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    zozimo gomez bendezu
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    The document discusses mine planning under uncertainty. It notes that traditional mine planning relies on averages which can lead to overestimation or underestimation. Instead, it advocates generating multiple scenarios through simulation to better account for uncertainties and variability in inputs. Capturing the full range of potential outcomes through scenario analysis allows for more robust mine planning under uncertain conditions.

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    The document discusses mine planning under uncertainty. It notes that traditional mine planning relies on averages which can lead to overestimation or underestimation. Instead, it advocates generating multiple scenarios through simulation to better account for uncertainties and variability in inputs. Capturing the full range of potential outcomes through scenario analysis allows for more robust mine planning under uncertain conditions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    5 views25 pages

    999 Bonus MinePlanningUnderUncertainty SIPLAMIN Marinho

    Uploaded by

    zozimo gomez bendezu
    The document discusses mine planning under uncertainty. It notes that traditional mine planning relies on averages which can lead to overestimation or underestimation. Instead, it advocates generating multiple scenarios through simulation to better account for uncertainties and variability in inputs. Capturing the full range of potential outcomes through scenario analysis allows for more robust mine planning under uncertain conditions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 25

    IV SIMPOSIO INTERNACIONAL

    DE PLANEAMIENTO DE MINADO

    MINE PLANNING UNDER


    UNCERTAINTY
    M. SC. ALEXANDRE MARINHO
    MiningMath

    www.simsched.com 1
    The Oil and Gas Industry

    http://www2.emersonprocess.com/siteadmincenter/PM%20Roxar%20Documents/Reservoir%20Management%20Software/Roxar%20Software%20Solutions%20Brochure.pdf
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAvp6OhArrA

    www.simsched.com 2
    The Oil and Gas Industry

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAvp6OhArrA

    www.simsched.com 3
    Workflow

    ?
    ? ?
    ? ?
    www.simsched.com 4
    Project Evaluation
    250

    200
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 5
    Dealing with Probabilities
    250
    Average
    Min/Max
    200
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 6
    Overestimation
    250
    Estimated
    Min/Max
    200
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 7
    Underestimation
    250
    Estimated
    Min/Max
    200
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 8
    How is your mine going to perform?

    ?
    www.simsched.com 9
    Kriging (Estimation) = Weighted Averages

    7%
    5% 8%

    15%

    12%

    www.simsched.com 10
    Independent of adjacent blocks

    7%
    5%

    9%

    15%

    12%

    www.simsched.com 11
    Overall Consequences - Smoothing Effect
    25
    Sample points

    Estimated points
    20
    Frequency (%)

    15

    10

    0
    30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

    Grade

    www.simsched.com 12
    Applying a Cutoff - Overestimation
    25
    Sample points

    Estimated points
    20

    Waste
    Frequency (%)

    15
    classified
    as ore
    10
    CUTOFF

    0
    30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

    Grade

    www.simsched.com 13
    Applying a Cutoff - Underestimation
    25
    Sample points

    Estimated points
    20
    Frequency (%)

    15
    Ore
    classified
    as waste
    10

    CUTOFF
    5

    0
    30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

    Grade

    www.simsched.com 14
    Non-linear Transfer Function - Example

    Scenarios f(x) = x Average

    1 1 = 1 x

    2 2 = 4 21/3x= 7 x

    4 4 = 16

    www.simsched.com 15
    Averaging Inputs

    Scenarios Average f(x) = x

    2 7/3 = 2.3 2.3 = 5.4

    www.simsched.com 16
    The Flaw of Averages - Dr. Sam Savage
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3zKgAetG5k

    E(x) = 7.0 5.4

    Average In Average Out

    (E(x)) E(x)

    www.simsched.com 17
    The Flaw of Averages - Dr. Sam Savage

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3zKgAetG5k

    www.simsched.com 18
    Averaging inputs in Mining

    Scenarios Estimation Schedule

    Figures from Leite and Dimitrakopoulos, 2009.


    www.simsched.com 19
    Mine Planning under Uncertainty

    Scenarios Estimation Schedule

    Figures from Leite and Dimitrakopoulos, 2009.


    www.simsched.com 20
    Generate Scenarios
    25
    Simulated Points

    Sample Points
    20
    Frequency (%)

    15

    10

    0
    30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

    Grade

    www.simsched.com 21
    Understand where you are

    ?
    www.simsched.com 22
    Adjust your Expectations
    250
    Estimated
    Min/Max
    200
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 23
    Optimize under Uncertainty
    250
    Conventional

    Min/Max
    200
    Stochastic
    Cumulative Net Present Value (M$)

    Min/Max
    150

    100

    50

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    -50

    -100

    -150
    Periods

    www.simsched.com 24
    Step Forward

    www.simsched.com 25

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