Chapter 10 Decision

Support Systems

James A. O'Brien, and George Marakas.

Management Information Systems with MISource
2007, 8th ed. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill, Inc.,
2007. ISBN: 13 9780073323091
 Decision Support in Business
Companies are investing in data-driven decision
support application frameworks to help them
respond to
Changing market conditions
Customer needs
This is accomplished by several types of
Management information
Decision support
Other information systems

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 Levels of Managerial Decision
Making

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 Information Quality
Information products made more valuable by
their attributes, characteristics, or qualities
Information that is outdated, inaccurate, or
hard to understand has much less value
Information has three dimensions
Time
Content
Form

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 Attributes of Information Quality

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 Decision Structure
Structured (operational)
The procedures to follow when decision
is needed can be specified in advance
Unstructured (strategic)
It is not possible to specify in advance
most of the decision procedures to follow
Semi-structured (tactical)
Decision procedures can be pre-specified,
but not enough to lead to the correct decision

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 Decision Support Systems
Management Information Decision Support
Systems Systems
Decision Provide information about the Provide information and
support performance of the organization techniques to analyze
provided specific problems
Information form Periodic, exception, demand, Interactive inquiries and
and frequency and push reports and responses
responses
Information Prespecified, fixed format Ad hoc, flexible, and
format adaptable format

Information Information produced by Information produced by

processing extraction and manipulation of analytical modeling of
methodology business data business data

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 Decision Support Trends
The emerging class of applications focuses on
Personalized decision support
Modeling
Information retrieval
Data warehousing
What-if scenarios
Reporting

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 Business Intelligence Applications

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 Decision Support Systems
Decision support systems use the following to
support the making of semi-structured business
decisions
Analytical models
Specialized databases
A decision-makers own insights and judgments
An interactive, computer-based modeling
process
DSS systems are designed to be ad hoc,
quick-response systems that are initiated and
controlled by decision makers
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 DSS Components

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 DSS Model Base
Model Base
A software component that consists of
models used in computational and analytical
routines that mathematically express relations
among variables
Spreadsheet Examples
Linear programming
Multiple regression forecasting
Capital budgeting present value

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Applications of Statistics and
Modeling
Supply Chain: simulate and optimize supply
chain flows, reduce inventory, reduce stock-
outs
Pricing: identify the price that maximizes
yield or profit
Product and Service Quality: detect quality
problems early in order to minimize them
Research and Development: improve
quality, efficacy, and safety of products and
services
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 Management Information
Systems
The original type of information system
that supported managerial decision making
Produces information products that support
many day-to-day decision-making needs
Produces reports, display, and responses
Satisfies needs of operational and tactical
decision makers who face structured
decisions

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Management Reporting Alternatives
Periodic Scheduled Reports
Prespecified format on a regular basis
Exception Reports
Reports about exceptional conditions
May be produced regularly or when an
exception occurs
Demand Reports and Responses
Information is available on demand
Push Reporting
Information is pushed to a networked computer

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 Online Analytical Processing
OLAP
Enables managers and analysts to examine
and manipulate large amounts of detailed and
consolidated data from many perspectives
Done interactively, in real time, with rapid
response to queries

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 Online Analytical Operations
Consolidation
Aggregation of data
Example: data about sales offices rolled up
to the district level
Drill-Down
Display underlying detail data
Example: sales figures by individual product
Slicing and Dicing
Viewing database from different viewpoints
Often performed along a time axis

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Geographic Information Systems
DSS uses geographic databases to construct
and display maps and other graphic displays
Supports decisions affecting the geographic
distribution of people and other resources
Often used with Global Positioning Systems
(GPS) devices

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 Data Visualization Systems
Represents complex data using interactive,
three-dimensional graphical forms
(charts, graphs, maps)
Helps users interactively sort, subdivide,
combine, and organize data while it is in its
graphical form

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 Using Decision Support Systems
Using a decision support system involves an interactive analytical
modeling process
Decision makers are not demanding pre-specified information
They are exploring possible alternatives
What-If Analysis
Observing how changes to selected variables affect other
variables
Sensitivity Analysis
Observing how repeated changes to a single variable affect
other variables
Goal-seeking Analysis
Making repeated changes to selected variables until a chosen
variable reaches a target value
Optimization Analysis
Finding an optimum value for selected variables, given certain
constraints

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 Data Mining
Provides decision support through knowledge
discovery
Analyzes vast stores of historical business data
Looks for patterns, trends, and correlations
Goal is to improve business performance
Types of analysis
Regression
Decision tree
Neural network
Cluster detection
Market basket analysis

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 Analysis of Customer
Demographics

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 Market Basket Analysis
One of the most common uses for data mining
Determines what products customers
purchase together with other products
Results affect how companies
Market products
Place merchandise in the store
Lay out catalogs and order forms
Determine what new products to offer
Customize solicitation phone calls

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 Executive Information Systems
Combines many features of MIS and DSS
Provide top executives with immediate and
easy access to information
Identify factors that are critical to accomplishing
strategic objectives (critical success factors)
So popular that it has been expanded to
managers, analysis, and other knowledge
workers

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 Features of an EIS
Information presented in forms tailored to the
preferences of the executives using the system
Customizable graphical user interfaces
Exception reports
Trend analysis
Drill down capability

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 Enterprise Information Portals
An EIP is a Web-based interface and integration
of MIS, DSS, EIS, and other technologies
Available to all intranet users and select
extranet users
Provides access to a variety of internal and
external business applications and services
Typically tailored or personalized to the user
or groups of users
Often has a digital dashboard
Also called enterprise knowledge portals

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 Dashboard Example

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Enterprise
Information
Portal
Components

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 Enterprise Knowledge Portal

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Case 2 Automated Decision Making
Automated decision making has been slow
to materialize
Early applications were just solutions looking
for problems, contributing little to improved
organizational performance
A new generation of AI applications
Easier to create and manage
Decision making triggered without human
intervention
Can translate decisions into action quickly,
accurately, and efficiently
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Case 2 Automated Decision Making
AI is best suited for
Decisions that must be made quickly and
frequently, using electronic data
Highly structured decision criteria
High-quality data
Common users of AI
Transportation industry
Hotels
Investment firms and lenders

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Case Study Questions
Why did some previous attempts to use artificial
intelligence technologies fail?
What key differences of the new AI-based
applications versus the old cause the authors
to declare that automated decision making is coming
of age?
What types of decisions are best suited for automated
decision making?
What role do humans plan in automated decision-making
applications?
What are some of the challenges faced by managers
where automated decision-making systems are being
used?
What solutions are needed to meet such challenges?
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 Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI is a field of science and technology based on
Computer science
Biology
Psychology
Linguistics
Mathematics
Engineering
The goal is to develop computers than can
simulate the ability to think
And see, hear, walk, talk, and feel as well

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 Attributes of Intelligent Behavior
Some of the attributes of intelligent behavior
Think and reason
Use reason to solve problems
Learn or understand from experience
Acquire and apply knowledge
Exhibit creativity and imagination
Deal with complex or perplexing situations
Respond quickly and successfully to new
situations
Recognize the relative importance of elements in
a situation
Handle ambiguous, incomplete, or erroneous
information
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 Domains of Artificial Intelligence

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 Cognitive Science
Applications in the cognitive science of AI
Expert systems
Knowledge-based systems
Adaptive learning systems
Fuzzy logic systems
Neural networks
Genetic algorithm software
Intelligent agents
Focuses on how the human brain works
and how humans think and learn

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 Robotics
AI, engineering, and physiology are the basic
disciplines of robotics
Produces robot machines with computer
intelligence and humanlike physical
capabilities
This area include applications designed to
give robots the powers of
Sight or visual perception
Touch
Dexterity
Locomotion
Navigation
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 Natural Interfaces
Major thrusts in the area of AI and the
development of natural interfaces
Natural languages
Speech recognition
Virtual reality
Involves research and development in
Linguistics
Psychology
Computer science
Other disciplines

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 Latest Commercial Applications
of AI
Decision Support
Helps capture the why as well as the what of
engineered design and decision making
Information Retrieval
Distills tidal waves of information into simple
presentations
Natural language technology
Database mining

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 Latest Commercial Applications
of AI
Virtual Reality
X-ray-like vision enabled by enhanced-reality
visualization helps surgeons
Automated animation and haptic interfaces
allow users to interact with virtual objects
Robotics
Machine-vision inspections systems
Cutting-edge robotics systems
From micro robots and hands and legs, to
cognitive and trainable modular vision
systems
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 Expert Systems
An Expert System (ES)
A knowledge-based information system
Contain knowledge about a specific, complex
application area
Acts as an expert consultant to end users

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Components of an Expert System
Knowledge Base
Facts about a specific subject area
Heuristics that express the reasoning
procedures of an expert (rules of thumb)
Software Resources
An inference engine processes the knowledge
and recommends a course of action
User interface programs communicate with
the end user
Explanation programs explain the reasoning
process to the end user

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Components of an Expert System

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 Methods of Knowledge
Representation
Case-Based
Knowledge organized in the form of cases
Cases are examples of past performance,
occurrences, and experiences
Frame-Based
Knowledge organized in a hierarchy or
network of frames
A frame is a collection of knowledge about
an entity, consisting of a complex package
of data values describing its attributes
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 Methods of Knowledge
Representation
Object-Based
Knowledge represented as a network of
objects
An object is a data element that includes both
data and the methods or processes that act
on those data
Rule-Based
Knowledge represented in the form of rules
and statements of fact
Rules are statements that typically take the
form of a premise and a conclusion (If, Then)
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 Expert System Application
Categories
Decision Management
Loan portfolio analysis
Employee performance evaluation
Insurance underwriting
Diagnostic/Troubleshooting
Equipment calibration
Help desk operations
Medical diagnosis
Software debugging

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 Expert System Application
Categories
Design/Configuration
Computer option installation
Manufacturability studies
Communications networks
Selection/Classification
Material selection
Delinquent account identification
Information classification
Suspect identification
Process Monitoring/Control
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 Expert System Application
Categories
Process Monitoring/Control
Machine control (including robotics)
Inventory control
Production monitoring
Chemical testing

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 Benefits of Expert Systems
Captures the expertise of an expert or group of
experts in a computer-based information system
Faster and more consistent than an expert
Can contain knowledge of multiple experts
Does not get tired or distracted
Cannot be overworked or stressed
Helps preserve and reproduce the knowledge
of human experts

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 Limitations of Expert Systems
The major limitations of expert systems
Limited focus
Inability to learn
Maintenance problems
Development cost
Can only solve specific types of problems
in a limited domain of knowledge

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 Developing Expert Systems
Suitability Criteria for Expert Systems
Domain: the domain or subject area of the problem is
small and well-defined
Expertise: a body of knowledge, techniques, and
intuition is needed that only a few people possess
Complexity: solving the problem is a complex task
that requires logical inference processing
Structure: the solution process must be able to cope
with ill-structured, uncertain, missing, and conflicting
data and a changing problem situation
Availability: an expert exists who is articulate,
cooperative, and supported by the management and
end users involved in the development process
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 Development Tool
Expert System Shell
The easiest way to develop an expert system
A software package consisting of an expert
system without its knowledge base
Has an inference engine and user interface
programs

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 Knowledge Engineering
A knowledge engineer
Works with experts to capture the knowledge
(facts and rules of thumb) they possess
Builds the knowledge base, and if necessary,
the rest of the expert system
Performs a role similar to that of systems
analysts in conventional information systems
development

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 Neural Networks
Computing systems modeled after the brains
mesh-like network of interconnected processing
elements (neurons)
Interconnected processors operate in parallel
and interact with each other
Allows the network to learn from the data it
processes

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 Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic
Resembles human reasoning
Allows for approximate values and
inferences and incomplete or ambiguous data
Uses terms such as very high instead of
precise measures
Used more often in Japan than in the U.S.
Used in fuzzy process controllers used in
subway trains, elevators, and cars

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 Example of Fuzzy Logic Rules
and Query

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 Genetic Algorithms
Genetic algorithm software
Uses Darwinian, randomizing, and other
mathematical functions
Simulates an evolutionary process, yielding
increasingly better solutions to a problem
Being uses to model a variety of scientific,
technical, and business processes
Especially useful for situations in which
thousands of solutions are possible

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 Virtual Reality (VR)
Virtual reality is a computer-simulated reality
Fast-growing area of artificial intelligence
Originated from efforts to build natural,
realistic, multi-sensory human-computer
interfaces
Relies on multi-sensory input/output devices
Creates a three-dimensional world through
sight, sound, and touch
Also called telepresence

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 Typical VR Applications
Current applications of virtual reality
Computer-aided design
Medical diagnostics and treatment
Scientific experimentation
Flight simulation
Product demonstrations
Employee training
Entertainment

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 Intelligent Agents
A software surrogate for an end user or a
process that fulfills a stated need or activity
Uses built-in and learned knowledge base
to make decisions and accomplish tasks in
a way that fulfills the intentions of a user
Also call software robots or bots

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 User Interface Agents
Interface Tutors observe user computer
operations, correct user mistakes, provide
hints/advice on efficient software use
Presentation Agents show information in a
variety of forms/media based on user
preferences
Network Navigation Agents discover paths
to information, provide ways to view it based
on user preferences
Role-Playing play what-if games and other
roles to help users understand information and
make better decisions
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 Information Management Agents
Search Agents help users find files and
databases, search for information, and suggest
and find new types of information products,
media, resources
Information Brokers provide commercial
services to discover and develop information
resources that fit business or personal needs
Information Filters Receive, find, filter,
discard, save, forward, and notify users about
products received or desired, including e-mail,
voice mail, and other information media
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 Case 3 Centralized Business
Intelligence
A reinventing-the-wheel approach to business
intelligence implementations can result in
High development costs
High support costs
Incompatible business intelligence systems
A more strategic approach
Standardize on fewer business intelligence
tools
Make them available throughout the
organization, even before projects are
planned
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 Case 3 Centralized Business
Intelligence
About 10 percent of the 2,000 largest companies
have a business intelligence competency center
Centralized or virtual
Part of the IT department or independent
Cost reduction is often the driving force behind
creating competency centers and consolidating
business intelligence systems
Despite the potential savings, funding for
creating and running a BI center can be an
issue
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 Case Study Questions
What is business intelligence?
Why are business intelligence systems such
a popular business application of IT?
What is the business value of the various
BI applications discussed in the case?
Is the business intelligence system an MIS
or a DSS?

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Case 4 Robots, the Common
Denominator
In early 2004, 22 patients underwent complex
laparoscopic operations
The operations included colon cancer
procedures and hernia repairs
The primary surgeon was 250 miles away
A three-armed robot was used to perform the
procedures
Left arm, right arm, camera arm

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Case 4 Robots, the Common
Denominator
Automakers heavily use robotics
Ford has a completely wireless assembly
factory
It also have a completely automated body
shop
BMW has two wireless plants in Europe and
is setting one up in the U.S.
Vehicle tracking and material replenishment
are automated as well

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 Case Study Questions
What is the current and future business value
of robotics?
Would you be comfortable with a robot
performing surgery on you?
The robotics being used by Ford Motor Co. are
contributing to a streamlining of its supply chain
What other applications of robots can you
envision to improve supply chain
management beyond those described in the
case?

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