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(9 Ed., Prentice Hall) : Modeling and Analysis
(9 Ed., Prentice Hall) : Modeling and Analysis
Business Intelligence
Systems
(9th Ed., Prentice Hall)
Chapter 4:
Modeling and Analysis
Learning Objectives
Understand the basic concepts of management
support system (MSS) modeling
Describe how MSS models interact with data
and the users
Understand the well-known model classes and
decision making with a few alternatives
Describe how spreadsheets can be used for
MSS modeling and solution
Explain the basic concepts of optimization,
simulation and heuristics; when to use which
4-2 Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Learning Objectives
Describe how to structure a linear
programming model
Understand how search methods are used to
solve MSS models
Explain the differences among algorithms,
blind search, and heuristics
Describe how to handle multiple goals
Explain what is meant by sensitivity analysis,
what-if analysis, and goal seeking
Describe the key issues of model management
4-3 Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Opening Vignette:
Model-Based Auctions Serve More
Lunches in Chile
Background: problem situation
Proposed solution
Results
Amount in Interest
CDs Collected
The shape of
UNCERTAINTY
the arrow
indicates the
Price type of
Sales relationship
RANDOM (risk) variable: Place a tilde (~) above the variables name
~
Demand
Sales
~ Income
Amount used in
Advertisement Units Sold
Profit
Fixed Cost
F P(1 i )n
i (1 i )n
A P
(1 i ) n
1
Decision trees
Graphical representation of
relationships
Multiple criteria approach
Demonstrates complex
relationships
Cumbersome, if many
alternatives exists
4-22 Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Decision Tables
Investment example
Uncontrollable
Variables
Decision Variables:
X1: unit of CC-7
X2: unit of CC-8
Objective Function:
Maximize Z (profit)
Z=8000X1+12000X2
Subject To
300X1 + 500X2 200K
10000X1 + 15000X2 8000K
X1 100
X2 200
Limitations of Heuristics
Cannot guarantee an optimal solution
Genetic algorithms
Survival of the fittest
Simulated annealing
Analogy to Thermodynamics
Simulation Implementation
Visual simulation
Object-oriented simulation
4-46 Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM) /
Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)
Visual interactive modeling (VIM)
Also called
Visual interactive problem solving
Visual interactive modeling
Visual interactive simulation
Uses computer graphics to present the impact
of different management decisions
Often integrated with GIS
Users perform sensitivity analysis
Static or a dynamic (animation) systems
Questions / Comments