Milankovitch, 1937

Orbital Theory of Ice Ages

3 dominant pacemakers of climate change

Eccentricity: 100,000 year cycle

Obliquity: 41,000 year cycle

Precession: 23,000 year cycle

 Eccentricity
100,000 & 400,000 yrs
 Obliquity
41,000 yrs
 Precession
23,000 yrs
 Earth wobbles in space so that its
tilt changes between about 22 and
25 degrees on a cycle of about
41,000 years.
Changes in tilt change the severity of the
seasons - more tilt means more severe
seasons - warmer summers and colder
winters; less tilt means less severe
seasons - cooler summers and milder
winters.
It is the cool summers which are thought to
allow snow and ice to last from year to
year in high latitudes, eventually building
up into massive ice sheets (moderate
winters warm).
There are positive feedbacks in the climate
system as well, because an Earth covered
with more snow reflects more of Sun's
energy into space, causing additional
cooling. In addition, it appears that the
amount of Carbon Dioxide in the
atmosphere falls as ice sheets grow, also
adding to the cooling of the climate.
e = (a2 - b2)1/2 / a
Aphelion when
Earth is furthest
from Sun.

~21,000 yr.
These three
orbital
parameters
operate
simultaneously,
influencing the
distribution of
solar radiation on
Earth (Insolation)
Milankovitch cycles are Pacemakers of the Ice Ages
The combination of the 41,000 year tilt cycle and the 22,000
year precession cycles, plus the smaller eccentricity signal,
affect the relative severity of summer and winter, and are
thought to control the growth and retreat of ice sheets.

Cool summers in the northern hemisphere,

where most of Earth's land mass is located,
appear to allow snow and ice to persist to the
next winter, allowing the development of large
ice sheets over hundreds to thousands of years.
Conversely, warmer summers shrink ice sheets
by melting more ice than the amount
accumulating during the winter.
 Orbital changes occur over thousands of years, and the
climate system may also take thousands of years to respond
to orbital forcing.

Theory suggests that the primary driver of ice ages is the total
summer radiation received in northern latitude zones where major
ice sheets have formed in the past, near 65 degrees north.

Past ice ages correlate well to 65N summer insolation.

Astronomical calculations show that 65N summer insolation
should increase gradually over the next 25,000 years, and
that no 65N summer insolation declines sufficient to cause an
ice age are expected in the next 50,000 - 100,000 years
 Obliquity (41 ka cycle) dominates most
of Earth history
but
Eccentricity (100 ka cycle) dominates
the last 700 ka with higher amplitude
changes and the sawtooth

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
million years before present
 41 ka cycles
(obliquity)
dominate the
Pliocene and
early Pleistocene

100 ka 41 ka
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
million years before present

100 ka cycles
(eccentricity)
dominate the
late Pleistocene
Orbital parameters have been operating
throughout Earth history

But the energy changes between glacial and

interglacial are actually very small, so they
cannot explain all climate change

Why have we not always had ice ages?

Global climate of the Pleistocene and Holocene

appears to be more susceptible to rapid change
than in most of Earth history.

Thus the world today may be highly sensitive to

things like atmospheric CO2 concentration
 CO2 record closely
matches ice age cycles