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Maximum Profits. - Desired Service Level
Maximum Profits. - Desired Service Level
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Introduction
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The Arrival Process
Under three conditions the arrivals can be modeled as a
Poisson process
Orderliness : one customer, at most, will arrive during any
time interval.
Stationarity : for a given time frame, the probability of arrivals
within a certain time interval is the same for all time intervals of
equal length.
Independence : the arrival of one customer has no influence
on the arrival of another.
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The Poisson Arrival Process
k!
Where
l = mean arrival rate per time unit.
t = the length of the interval.
e = 2.7182818 (the base of the natural logarithm).
k! = k (k -1) (k -2) (k -3) (3) (2) (1).
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HANKs HARDWARE Arrival Process
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HANKs HARDWARE
An illustration of the Poisson distribution.
Input to the Poisson
distribution
l = 6 customers per hour.
t = 0.5 hour.
lt = (6)(0.5) = 3.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
10k23
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HANKs HARDWARE
Excel Poisson
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The Waiting Line Characteristics
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Line Configuration
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Jockeying and Balking
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Priority Rules
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Tandem Queues
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Homogeneity
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The Service Process
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The Exponential Service Time Distribution
f(t) = me-mt
P(X t) = 1 - e-mt
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Schematic illustration of the exponential
distribution
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X=t
HANKs HARDWARE Service time
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Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
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HANKs HARDWARE
Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
The mean number of customers served per
minute is = (60) = 15 customers per hour.
P(X < .05 hours) = 1 e-(15)(.05) = ?
From Excel we have: 3 minutes = .05 hours
EXPONDIST(.05,15,TRUE) = .5276
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HANKs HARDWARE
Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
=EXPONDIST(B4,B3,TRUE)
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
f(t)
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
0.000 0.075 0.150 0.225 0.300 0.375
t
=EXPONDIST(A10,$B$3,FALSE)
Drag to B11:B26
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The Exponential Distribution -
Characteristics
The memoryless property.
No additional information about the time left for the completion of a
service, is gained by recording the time elapsed since the service
started.
For Hanks, the probability of completing a service within the next 3
minutes is (0.52763) independent of how long the customer has been
served already.
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9.3 Performance Measures of
Queuing System
The transient period
n
occurs at the initial Roughly, this
time of operation. is a transient
period
Initial transient
behavior is not
indicative of long run
performance.
Time
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9.3 Performance Measures of
Queuing System
The steady state
n
period follows the This is a
Roughly, this
transient period. is a transient steady state
period..
Meaningful long run period
performance
measures can be
calculated for the
system when in
Time
steady state.
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9.3 Performance Measures of
Queuing System
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Steady State Performance Measures
P0 = Probability that there are no customers in the system.
Pn = Probability that there are n customers in the system.
L=lW Lq = l Wq L = Lq + l/m
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M / M /1 Queue - Performance Measures
P0 = 1 (l/m)
Pn = [1 (l/m)](l/m)n
L = l /(m l)
The probability that
Lq = l2 /[m(m l)] a customer waits in
W = 1 /(m l) the system more than
t is P(X>t) = e-(m - l)t
Wq = l /[m(m l)]
Pw = l / m
r =l/m
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MARYs SHOES
Customers arrive at Marys Shoes every 12
minutes on the average, according to a Poisson
process.
=B4/B5 =1-
=A11-B4/B5 B4/B5
=1-
=B4/(B5-B4) =C11-1/B5 E11 =H11*($B$4/$B$5
=A11/B
4 )
Drag to Cell AL11
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Economic Analysis of Queuing
Systems
The performance measures previously developed
are used next to determine a minimal cost queuing
system.
The procedure requires estimated costs such as:
Hourly cost per server .
Customer goodwill cost while waiting in line.
Customer goodwill cost while being served.
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Tandem Queuing Systems
In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
Examples
All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
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Tandem Queuing Systems
In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
Examples
All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
39
Tandem Queuing Systems
In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
Examples
All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
A drive-in restaurant, where first you place your order, then
pay and receive it in the next window.
A multiple stage assembly line.
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Tandem Queuing Systems
For cases in which customers arrive according to
a Poisson process and service time in each
station is exponential, .
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BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.
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BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.
Data for a regular Saturday
Personnel.
8 sales persons are on the job.
3 cashiers.
2 workers in the merchandise pickup area.
Average service times.
Average time a sales person waits on a customer is 10 minutes.
Average time required for the payment process is 3 minutes.
Average time in the pickup area is 2 minutes.
Distributions.
Exponential service time at all the service stations.
Poisson arrival with a rate of 40 customers an hour.
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BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.
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BIG BOYS SOUND, INC. Solution
Cashiers
Sales Clerks M/M/3
M/M/8
W3 = 2.67 minutes
W2 = 3.47 minutes
W1 = 14 minutes Total = 20.14 minutes.
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