Hazard Assessment and Risk

Management Techniques for

Industries
Prepared by : VIJAY ASAR
Chief Co-ordinator,
DPMC

Disaster Prevention & Management Centre

Fire Station, GIDC, Ankleshwar- 2
disasterm@dataone.in
dpmcank@sancharnet.in
Ph. No. – (02646) 220229, 653101
Disaster Risk Management
The systematic process of using
administrative decisions,
organisation, operational skills and
capacities to implement policies,
strategies and coping capacities of
the societies and communities to
lessen the impacts of
environmental and technological
disasters.
 Disaster Risk Reduction
The conceptual framework of
elements considered with the
possibilities to minimize
vulnerabilitiies and disaster risk
throughout a society, to avoid
(prevention) or to limit (mitigation
and preparedness) the adverse
impacts of hazards.
 What is system safety?

The system safety concept is the application of

special technical and managerial skills to the
systematic, forward-looking identification and
control of hazards throughout the life cycle of a
project, program, or activity. The concept calls for
safety analyses and hazard control actions,
beginning with the conceptual phase of a system
and continuing through the design, production,
testing, use, and disposal phases, until the activity
is retired.
 Chemical hazards
 Type of chemical hazards
 Material hazard : Hazardous nature of chemicals
like Inflammable, explosive, toxic, corrosive, reactive,
radioactive, reducing, oxidizing, decomposing or
incompatible.

 Process hazards : In process, chemical and

physical change, chemical reaction, pressure,
temperature, level, flow, quantity and other
parameters create.

 Vessel hazards : The vessels and equipments in

which the chemicals are stored, handled or reacted
pose.
 Chemical hazards
 Type of chemical hazards
 Control hazards : The inadequate, defective, under
design or wrongly modified control devices or their of
failure cause.

 Fire hazards : Fire or explosion

 Toxic hazards : Affluent disposal and gaseous
emissions bring pollution and toxic hazards.

 Handling hazards : Leaks, spills and splashes

cause.
 Chemical hazards
 Physical hazards or health hazards

 Physical Hazards : Corrosives, Explosives

etc.
 Health Hazards : Toxic, Irritants and Oxides.

 Accident an emergency hazard

 Absence, nonuse or failure of fire fighting

equipments, personal protective
equipments, emergency control devices
 The Hazard

A potential condition or set of conditions, either

internal and/or external to a system, product,
facility, or operation. Which, when activated
transforms the hazard into a series of events that
culminate in loss (an accident). A simpler and more
fundamental definition of hazard is a condition that
can cause injury or death, damage to or loss of
equipment or property, or environmental harm.
Hazard Analysis at various stages
of Project Execution
 Process Hazard Management
Process Hazard Management includes:
 Hazard identification.
 Hazard Assessment.
 Accidental vapour cloud release (flammable and/or
toxic).
 Engineering approaches to mitigation.
 Design features for emergency control.
 Process Safety Management (PSM).
 Planning for counter measures.
 Emergency response planning (ERP-onsite).
 Alerting local authorities and public.
 Process Hazard Management
Some important elements of PSM.:
 Employee Participation
 Process Safety Information (PSI)
 Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)
 Operating Procedure
 Training
 Contractor Safety
 Pre-Startup Safety Review
 Mechanical Integrity
 Hot Work Program
 Management of Change (MOC)
 Incident Investigation
 Emergency Planning & Response Compliance
Audits
 Process Hazard Management
1. Operating Procedures
 Initial startup
 Normal, temporary & emergency operations
 Normal shutdown
 Startup following a turnaround or after an
emergency shutdown
 Operating limits
 Consequences of deviation steps required to
correct or to avoid such deviation
 Process Hazard Management
1. Operating Procedures
 Safety & Health considerations
 Precautions necessary to prevent exposure,
including engineering controls
 Administrative controls & personal protective
equipment
 Controls measure to be taken if physical
contact or airborne exposure occurs
 Quality control for raw materials & control of
hazardous chemical inventory levels
 Safety systems & their functions.
 Process Hazard Management
2. Pre-Startup Safety Review
 Construction & equipment is in accordance
with design specifications
 Safety, operating, maintenance &
emergency procedures are in place & are
adequate
 Modified facilities meet the requirements
contained in Management of Change
 Training of each employee involved in
operating a process has been completed.
 Process Hazard Management
3. Management of Change (MOC)
 The technical basis for the proposed
change
 Impact of change on safety and health
 Modifications to operating procedures
 Necessary time period for the change
 Authorization requirements for the
proposed change
 Up-date of Process Safety information
(PSI), PHA & Operating procedures.
 Process Hazard Management
4. Process Hazard Analysis (PHA)
 Engineering & administrative controls
 Detection methods for providing early
warning of releases
 Consequences of failure of engineering
and administrative controls
 Facility site
 Human factors
 Qualitative evaluation of a range of the
possible safety and health effects of failure
of controls on employees and others
 HAZID Technique

HAZID is an automated hazard identification tool

for continuous process plants and principle
features of

 Sectionalizing the process plant into several units

 Generation of hazardous incident scenarios
 Use of models to distinguish between the feasible
and infeasible scenarios
 Use rules to detect plant configuration problem.
HAZID Technique
HAZID Process
Divide the Process Plant into smaller
section

Generate Hazardous Incident Scenarios

Identify the feasible Scenarios only

Identify plant configuration problem

Generate output in HAZOP table

 The Hazard
 Hazard severity

Category Name Characteristics

I Catastrophic Death
Loss of system
II Critical Severe injury or morbidity
Major damage to system
III Marginal Minor injury or morbidity
Minor damage to system
IV Negligible No injury or morbidity
No damage to system
 The Hazard
 Possible hazard likelihood
Description Level Specific Individual Item Fleet or Inventory
Frequent A Likely to occur frequently Continuously
experienced
Probable B Will occur several times in Will occur frequently
life of an item

Occasional C Likely to occur sometime Will occur several times

in life of an item

Remote D Unlikely but possible to Unlikely but can

occur in life of an item reasonably be expected
to occur
improbable E So unlikely, it can be Unlikely to occur, but
assumed occurrence may possible
not be experienced
 The Hazard
 Hazard Assessment Matrix
HAZARD CATEGORIES
Frequency of
Occurrence I II III IV
Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible

(A) Frequent 1A 2A 3A 4A

(B) Probable 1B 2B 3B 4B

(C) Occasional 1C 2C 3C 4C

(D) Remote 1D 2D 3D 4D

(E) improbable 1D 2E 3E 4E
 The Hazard
 Hazard Assessment Matrix
Hazard Risk Index HRI
1A, 1B, 1C, 2A, 2B, 3A I
1D, 2C, 2D, 3B, 3C II
1E, 2E, 3E, 3E, 4A, 4B III
4C, 4D, 4E IV
Suggested Criteria
 Unacceptable
 Undesirable (Management decision required)
 Acceptable with review by management
 Acceptable without review
 The Hazard
 Relationship of qualitative probability
ranking to quantitative values

Frequency of Potential relationship

Description Level
occurrence to Quantitative Value

Frequent A High 10-1

Probable B  
Occasional C Medium > 10-3

Remote D  > 10-4

Improbable E Low > 10-6

 The Concept of Risk
Risk: ”Chances or possibility of accidental losses
or undesired consequences."
 The probability of a dangerous event posed by a
hazard, over a definite time period of exposure or
 The frequency at which such events will occur
and results in fatalities to certain number of
people and
 The consequence of such events in terms of
expected number of fatalities per year.
Risk = (Probability) x (Consequences)
Consequence Analysis or
Semi Quantitative Risk Analysis
Assessment of possibilities
--- By use of various hazard
identification techniques like
* Preliminary Hazard Analysis
(PHA)
* Hazard & Operability Study
* Safety Audit
* Fault tre analysis
* Event tree analysis, etc.
 EFFECT MODELS
 Conceiving a credible scenario by
hazard identification techniques
• Computation of physical effects of the scenario
by suitable models like:
-- Outflow model
-- Dispersion model
-- Unconfined vapour cloud explosion models
-- Jet fire dimensions
-- Damage from shock wave on BLEVE
-- Fire ball radiation damages
-- Pool fire radiation damages etc.
TECHNIQUES AVAILABLE
o Fire & Explosion Index (Dow Index) and
Toxicity Index
o Calculation of damages likely from the
fires,explosions and toxic releases and
combining the damages with
probabilities of occurrence in terms of
Individual Risk and Societal Risk.
( The later is more objective for
estimating the distances likely to be
affected)
The Mathematical Models
Available to Compute the Effects
-- Release rate of liquids under pressure.
-- Distance of Lower Explosive Limit in the
windward direction.
-- Contours of LEL concentrations at the ground
level.
-- Mass of gas within explosive range (For
unconfined vapour cloud)
-- Shockwave damage on ignition of unconfined
vapour cloud explosion.
-- Mass of gas in explosive range on BLEVE.
-- Fire Ball Radius.
-- Fire ball duration.
-- Radiative flux.
-- Thermal Dose.
 Dow and Mond Indices

Both the methods are closely related and as such

Mond Index was developed as an extension of
DOW index. Primarily, Dow index calculates the
Fire & Explosion index for a process unit taking
into consideration the flammability and reactivity
of the material handled in the process units under
the general and special process condition. Mond
Index on the other hand uses specifically the
material toxicity in addition to the other aspects.
 Dow and Mond Indices

Fire & Explosion index :(F & E1) = MF x (GPH) (SPH)

Toxicity Index : Th + Ts (1+GPH+SPH)

100
Where, MF = Material Factor
SPH = Special Process Hazard
GPH = General Process Hazard
Th = Toxicity factor based on the NFPA hazard
index (0 – 4)
Ts = Correction factor (additional penalty) for
toxicity based on Maximum Allowable
Concentration (MAC) value in ppm
Dow and Mond Indices
Toxicity Factors and Correction Factor
for MAC values
NFPA Index Toxicity Factory
Number (Th)
0 0
1 50
2 125
3 250
4 325

MAC (in ppm) TS

5 and blow 125
Between 5 and 50 75
50 and more 50
 Process Hazard Management
General Process Hazard (GPH)

GPH includes processes e.g. exothermic reaction,

endothermic reactions, hydrogenation, alkylation,
isomerisation, sulphurization, neutralization,
esterification, oxidation, polymerization,
condensation, halogenation, nitration, loading-
unloading operation, enclosed process units,
inadequate drainage and proper access etc.
different penalties are assigned for different
processes.
 Process Hazard Management
Special Process Hazard (SPH)

SPH includes special hazards posed due to

process parameters like temp., pressure,
flammability ranges (UEL, LEL) of material and
issues like internal and external corrosion, leakage
from joints etc. additional penalties are assigned
for special process hazards. Selection of the
process units which may contribute to a fire or
explosion or toxic release
 Process Hazard Management
The material factor which are the functions
of flammable and reactivity can be
calculated by the following way ;
 Find out flash point of a material or HCV by
multiplying heat of combustion by the vapour
pressure of that substance at 27’ C.
 Find out flammability factor from the next table
from the flash point data or HCV value.
 Find out the adiabatic decomposition temp. of the
substance.
 Find out the reactivity factor from the table from
decomposition temp. value.
 Dow and Mond Indices
Table for finding out Material Factor (Mf) from the table
Calculate Mf from following Table from Left to Right
Decomposition < 830 830 - 935 - 1010 - >
temp. Td Deg K 935 1010 1080 1080
Flash HCV Reactivity …………………

Pt. kJ bar/ mol F 0 1 2 3 4

L
None < 4 x 10-5 A 0 0 14 24 29 40
>100 4 x 10-5 2.5 M 1 4 14 24 29 40
40-100 2.5 - 40 A 2 10 14 24 29 40
20-40 40 – 600 B 3 16 16 24 29 40
< -20 > 600 I 4 21 21 24 29 40
L Material Factor MF
ITY
 Procedure for Calculating the
Indices

 Identify the most process units for risk

point of view.
 Determine the material factor (MF) for
each process units (flammability &
reactivity of material)
 Determine the Fire & Explosion Index
(F&EI) and the problem exposure area for
each process unit from the formula.
 Calculate the Maximum Probable Property
Damage (MPPD).
 Indices and the Extent of Hazard

F & E index Toxicity Index Degree of Hazard

1 – 60 1–6 Light
61 – 96 6 – 10 Moderate
97 – 127 > 10 Intermediate
128 – 158 > 10 Heavy
> 159 > 10 Severe
 Risk Analysis
General Principles of Risk Analysis

1. All relevant risks are systematically

addressed
 Identify major, don’t concentrate on minor
 Consider those aspects of work which are
hazardous
 Take into account & critically assess existing safety
controls & measures provided
2. Address what actually happens
 Actual practice, not instruction
 Consider non-routine operations
 Pay attention to changes/interruptions
 Risk Analysis
General Principles of Risk Analysis

3. Include all who could be affected, including

visitors, contractors, and general public
4. Take into account, and objectively assess,
control measures
5. The level of protection measures should
match the level of risk (i.e. risk within the
ALARP region)
6. In most cases, make a rough assessment first,
find out the need for detailed assessment and
carry out the same, if needed.
 Risk Analysis
 Use of Probabilities in Risk
Analysis
The risk of operational activity with hazardous
materials consists of two elements
 The consequence of certain unwanted event
 The probability of certain consequences that will occur

A distinction is made between 3 types of

probabilities
 The probability of the initiating event.
 The probability that designed counter measures may
function
 The probability of certain consequences of an accident
 Risk Analysis
 Layers of Protection Analysis
Offsite Emergency Measures Community Alerting & Evacuation, if necessary

Onsite Emergency Measures Onsite Evacuation

Protective Measures & Control Safety Instrumented

Mitigation
Protective Control & Monitoring Process alarms &
Safety Instrumented Control

Process Control & Supervision

Hazardous Process
 Nomogram of Risk Assessment

P S R
X
 Risk Analysis
 Consequence BLEVE Model for Different
Static and Mobile Pressure Vessels

BLEVE Scenarios and Consequence Distances

Storage type Inventory 100% fatality 1% Fatality
(MT) Distance Distance
Road tanker 12 137 M 500 M
--Do--- 20 162 M 600 M
Rail Wagon 50 218 M 700 M
Horton Sphere 140 305 M 940 M
---Do--- 1150 624 M 1834 M
 Consequence Analysis
Consequence Analysis for a Ammonia Tank Leak

Scenario : 20” dia. Tank having leak of NH3 from 10” pipe

Consequence : Distance to IDLH is 8.9 Km

4
2
Kilometer

0
2
4
2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Kilometer
 Consequence Analysis
Sour (containing H2S) Natural Gas pipeline leak scenario

Scenario : full bore rupture of a 42” pipeline

Consequence : Distance to IDLH is 3.9 Km

1.5
Kilometer

0.5
0
0.5

1.5
1 0 1 2 3 4
Kilometer
 Risk Analysis
Risk control techniques / Risk Management

 Inherent safe design (built-in safety)

 Fault tolerant measures (single or multiple
failures)
 Protective measures
 Adequate information on the residual risk
 Administration controls (e.g. allocation of task
to the human operator, training etc.)
 Other Risk Reduction measures
 Corrective and preventive actions
 Document control
 Risk Analysis
 List of Software's Available for Risk
Analysis and Other Studies
Sl.
Item Description Application
No.
1. SAFETI Onshore Risk Analysis.
2. SFU Offshore Risk Analysis.
3. CAFTAN Fault Tree Analysis.
4. ETRA Event Tree Analysis.
5. HAZSEC. HAZOP Study.
6. HAZTRAC. HAZOP Recommendation Tracking.
7. PHAST. Consequence Analysis.
8. WHAZAN Consequence Analysis.
 Risk Analysis
 List of Software's Available for Risk
Analysis and Other Studies
Sl.
Item Description Application
No.
9. EFFECTS. Consequence (Effects) Modeling.
10. DAMAGE Consequence (Damage) Modeling.
11. PC-FACTS. Failure & Accident Databank.
12. ASAP Event Tree Analysis.
13. FMECA Failure Mode Effects & Criticality Analysis.
14. ANEX Life Time Analysis & Failure Estimation.
15. E&P FORUM Hydrocarbon Leak & Ignition Database.
16. ALOHA Consequence Analysis
 Risk Analysis
 List of Software's Available for Risk
Analysis and Other Studies
Sl.
Item Description Application
No.
17. CLASS Hazardous Area Risk & Classifications
18. RISK CURVES TNO Individual & Group Risk computations
19. RISKA T Risk Analysis model of Health & Safety
Executives, UK
20. FACTS TNO Frequency Estimation Database
21. OREDA DNV Frequency Estimation Database
22. FRED Consequence Analysis software of Shell, UK
23. EAHAP Consequence modeling software of Energy
Analysts Inc. US)
 Risk Communication
Seven Cardinal Rules
1. Accept and involve the public as a legitimate
partner.
2. Plan carefully and evaluate your efforts.
3. Listen to the public’s specific concerns
(Communication is two way activity)
4. Be honest, frank and open (Trust and
credibility are most precious assets)
5. Coordinate and collaborate with other
credible sources
6. Meet the needs of Media ( provide risk
information tailored to the needs of each type
of media)
7. Speak clearly and with compassion ( Use
simple non technical language with general
public)
 Have a Healthy Life
In Safe Environment.

DISASTER PREVENTION & MGMT. CENTRE

AnklESHwar.