EFFECT OF WEATHER SHOCKS

&
EXTERNAL FACTORS
ON
INDIAN AGRICULTURE

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 The Paris Agreement signed on 22nd April 2016 brings
all nations on a common platform to combat the
01 increasing global temperatures

The average global temperature on Earth has

increased by about 0.8° Celsius since 1880. Two-
thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a
02 rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade.

Agriculture contributed 17.9% of the total gross

Figure: Increase in Average Global Temperature and Contributions of Key Factors
(Deviations from 1880–1910average, degrees Celsius) 03 value added to the nation in 2016-17

Sources: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Roston and Migliozzi (2015); and IMF staff calculations.
Factors affecting Agricultural Production

Rainfall

Overview
• Agriculture can be affected by large number of factors. We have
identified three of them and tried to analyze the degree to which
each affect the agricultural production.
Temperature
• During this study we realized that temperature and rainfall affect
the produce by irrigated and unirrigated land differently, hence
our analysis is based accordingly.

Fertilizers and Pesticides

 200
400
600
800
1000
1200

0
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007

Rain (in mm)

2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
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1990
1989
RAIN and UNIRRIGATED LAND PRODUCTION

1988
1987
1986

Total Unirrigated production (in million tonnes)

1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
200
600
800
1000
1200

400

2015
2014
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2012
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2005
Rain (in mm)

2004
2003
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1991
1990
RAIN and IRRIGATED LAND PRODUCTION

1989
1988
1987
Total Irrigated production (in million tonnes)

1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
 100
200
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800
900

0
2015
2014
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2002

Fertilizer (in lakh tonnes)

2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
Fertilizer and Total production

1990
1989
1988
1987
1986

Total Production (in million tonnes)

1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900

2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
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2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
pesticides (in thousand tonnes)

2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
Agricultural production and use of pesticides

1987
1986
1985
Total Production (in million tonnes)

1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
 TEMP and IRRIGATED LAND PRODUCTION
TEMP and UNIRRIGATED LAND
350 500

450
300
400
250
350

200 300

250
150
200

100 150

100
50
50
0
0

2015
2014
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2004
2003
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2001
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1985
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1981
1980
Temperature (in Celcius) Total Irrigated production (in million tonnes) Temperature (in Celcius) Total Unirrigated production (in million tonnes)
 Effect of rainfall on Production
500 350
TOTAL UNIRRIGATED PRODUCTION

450 y = 0.0739x + 178.26

TOTAL IRRIGATED PRODUCTION

300 R² = 0.012
400
350 250

300 y = 0.336x + 89.356

R² = 0.2489 200
250
150
200
150 100
100
50
50
0 0
600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
RAINFALL RAINFALL

Regression Analysis Regression Analysis

There is 25% dependency on rainfall There a negligible dependency on
when farming is done on a piece of rainfall is agriculture is practiced on
unirrigated land. irrigated piece of land.
 Effect of temperature on Production
500 350
TOTAL UNIRRIGATED PRODUCTION

450

TOTAL IRRIGATED PRODUCTION

300
400
350 250
y = -69.436x + 2089.2
300 R² = 0.1566 200
250 y = 86.339x - 1879.2
200 150 R² = 0.2406

150 100
100
50
50
0 0
23.8 24 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 25 25.2 25.4 23.8 24 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 25 25.2 25.4
TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE

Regression Analysis Regression Analysis

There is 16% dependency on rainfall There is 24% dependency on rainfall
when farming is done on a piece of when agriculture is practiced on
unirrigated land. irrigated piece of land.
 Effect of fertilizer and pesticides on Production
900 900

800 800

700 700
TOTAL PRODUCTION

TOTAL PRODUCTION
600 600

500 500
y = 3.0151x + 463.65
y = 0.3333x + 571.26
400 400 R² = 0.1343
R² = 0.0706
300 300

200 200

100 100

0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 35 45 55 65 75 85
FERTILIZER PESTICIDES

Regression Analysis Regression Analysis

There is 7% dependency on fertilizer There is 13% dependency on pesticide
on total farming. usage on total farming.
 IMPACT OF WEATHER SHOCKS ON KHARIF & RABI CROPS

Impact of weather shocks on Kharif and Rabi Productions

Event No Flood Year Drought year Trend in Kharif production(%) Trend in Rabi production(%)
1 1970 10.54 6.33
2 1975 25.03 15.74
3 1983 27.65 5.9
4 1988 28.27 12.9
5 1994 0.67 7.83
6 2005 8.66 10.22
7 2015 0.98 3.12
8 1966 NA NA
9 1968 -1.96 0.44
10 1972 -6.91 -8.99
11 1974 -12.88 10.59
12 1979 -18.99 -13.69
13 1982 -11.94 10.57
14 1985 0.86 6.83
15 1986 -5.92 -3.02
16 1987 -7.03 4.07
17 2002 -3.81 -1.64
18 2004 -1.36 0.47

Source: https://www.researchgate.net
 IMPACT OF WEATHER SHOCKS ON DIFFERENT CROPS

Impact of weather shocks on Different Crop Productions

Event No Flood Year Drought year Rice Wheat Bajra Barley Jowar Maize All Pulses
1 1970 4.4 18.6 50.7 2.5 -16.6 32.1 1.1
2 1975 23.1 19.7 75.5 1.8 -8.7 30.6 30.1
3 1983 27.5 6.3 50.5 -1.8 10.9 20.9 8.7
4 1988 24 17.2 135.8 8.1 -16.6 43.9 26.4
5 1994 1.9 9.9 44.1 31.5 -21.4 -7.5 5.5
6 2005 8.18 6.34 63.32 0.42 -18.48 16 6.36
7 2015 6.68 8.34 68.02 -1.58 -20.48 12.8 12.36
8 1966 -0.5 9.5 19.2 -1.4 21.6 1.5 -16.1
9 1968 5.7 12.8 -26.8 -30.8 -2.5 -9.1 -13.9
10 1972 -8.9 -6.3 -26.1 -7.7 -9.7 25.3 -10.6
11 1974 -10.1 10.7 -56.5 32.2 14.4 -4.1 0.1
12 1979 -21.3 -10.4 -29.1 -24.2 1.8 -9.7 -29.6
13 1982 -11.5 14.3 -7.4 -6.3 -10.9 -5.1 3
14 1985 9.4 6.8 -39.5 26.1 -10.5 -21.3 11.7
15 1986 -5.1 -5.8 23.2 -14.9 -9.9 14.3 -12.4
16 1987 -6.1 4.2 -26.8 -4.6 32.8 -26.6 -6.4
17 2002 -3.38 5.98 -16.87 -1.51 5.01 -1.87 -6.24
18 2004 -6.92 1.82 -15.92 -4.78 0.66 -9.68 -6.74

Source: https://www.researchgate.net
EFFECT OF LABOUR SHOCK ON AGRICULTURE

Timing of the policy

implementation Availability of labour vs
Cropping pattern
Since Kharif crops are affected
most because of the weather The number of labours available
shocks the policies should be decreased and it impacted the
implemented during the Rabi farmers to produce less labour
crops season intensive crops

IRRIGATED VS UNIRRIGATED AREA

Also labour shocks affects the production of the irrigated area more than the unirrigated area production , hence
policies should be implemented more in the unirrigated areas.
 CONCLUSION
WEATHER SHOCK

• Among Rain, Temperature, Pesticides and Fertilizers,

Temperature affects the unirrigated produce negatively
otherwise all the factors have positive correlation.
RAIN,
• Rabi food grain production has better adaptive capacity to TEMPERATURE, LABOR
PESTICIDES AND
drought than Kharif food grain production.
FERTILIZERS

• Rice is an important staple food grain that is the most

sensitive to climate extremes and jowar face flood events 1 2
effectively

3 4
LABOR SHOCK
NATURAL NET
• Policies involving labor shocks should be done during Rabi
CALAMITIES IRRIGATION
crop season, the cropping pattern should be changed and
policies should be implemented in unirrigated areas
THANK YOU