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E339x Livestock Marketing 1
E339x Livestock Marketing 1
Price discovery
Pricing methods
Marketing decisions
Supply and demand
Price Determination and Discovery
Price Determination
• is the broad forces of supply and
demand establishing a market clearing
price for a commodity.
Price Discovery
• is the process by which buyers and
sellers arrive a a specific price for a
given lot of produce at a given location
for a specific time period.
Price Discovery
Pe
Qe Q
Centralized pricing
All buyers and sellers in one place at
one time.
+ Full and immediate information
+ Competitive bidding
+ Equalizes market power
- Transaction cost
- Physical movement of product
Decentralized Pricing
One-to-one negotiations
+ Reduced transportation cost
+ Reduced transaction cost
- Depends on skills and information
- Higher search cost
Hybrid markets
Electronic markets
• Centralized pricing
• Decentralized product movement
Examples
• Satellite auctions
• Electronic auctions
• Tel-o-auction
• E-commerce
Formula pricing
Price discovery from elsewhere
Formula contracts
• Spot market
• Cutout price
• Futures
Do you trust the underlying market for
price discovery?
Performance issues
“Least cost” method of price
discovery
Effect of the mechanism on price
behavior
Marketing v. pricing efficiency
Information and markets
Price reporting
• Role of the government
• Collection and dissemination and timely
reporting of prices that were discovered.
• Other private treaty buyers and sellers
incorporate new information into their
negotiation.
• Facilitates formula pricing
Livestock Marketing Decisions
What to sell
• Live, carcass, grid
Where to sell
• Type of market
• Location
When to sell
• Weight, grade, costs
What to sell
Live weight
• One average price for all live pounds
• Negotiated price before delivery or at
auction
• Weighing conditions important
» Mud, shrink (fill, time, stress)
• Was most common for hogs but not now
• Still common in large cattle feedlots, less
in Iowa
• Used for feeder cattle and feeder pigs
What to sell
Carcass weight (“in-the-meat”)
• One average price for all carcass pounds
• Negotiated price before delivery
• Dressing percent (also called yield)
» Important to compare bids
» Not important in determining value
• Farmer stands risk of trimming and
condemnation
• Common for fed cattle in Midwest
What to sell
Dressing percent
• DP = carcass weight / live weight
• DP hogs approximately 73-76%
• DP cattle approximately 61-64%
DP impacted by:
• Weighing conditions
• Shrink
• Fat thickness
• Genetics
What to sell
Value-based marketing
• Each carcass evaluated and priced individually
• Premiums and discounts determined ahead of
delivery
• Base price may be negotiated or come from formula
• Carcasses are graded and values assigned
• Farmer stands grading risk
• Different buyers have different systems
• Nearly all hogs
• Increasingly popular for fed cattle
Hog Carcass Weight Discounts
Carcass Weight Range
145# -27.70 -8.16
155# -27.70 -5.00
165# -10.39 -0.67
175# -3.40 0.00
185# -1.36 0.00
195# -0.68 0.00
205# 0.00 0.00
215# -3.00 1.36
225# -5.26 0.00
IOWA/MINNESOTA DAILY DIRECT NEGOTIATED HOG PURCHASE MATRIX
LM_HG204, Fri, Aug 26, 2005, USDA Market News Des Moines, Iowa
Hog Carcass Price by Backfat and
Loin Eye Area
Hog Carcass Price by Loin Eye Area/depth (inches)
Backfat 4.0/1.4 5.0/1.7 6.0/2.0 7.0/2.3 8.0/2.7
0.40 62.00 75.05 63.50 75.00 65.00 75.00 66.00 76.00 66.00 76.00
0.50 59.50 75.05 62.00 75.05 65.00 75.05 66.00 75.00 66.00 76.00
0.60 59.50 75.60 62.00 75.60 63.50 75.60 65.00 75.60 66.00 75.60
0.70 59.50 75.60 59.50 75.60 62.00 75.60 65.00 75.60 66.00 75.60
0.80 57.50 75.60 59.50 75.60 62.00 75.60 63.50 75.60 66.00 75.60
0.90 57.50 72.10 59.50 72.10 59.50 72.55 62.00 73.05 65.00 73.80
1.00 56.50 72.10 57.50 72.10 59.50 72.10 62.00 72.10 63.50 73.05
1.10 55.50 67.90 57.50 68.05 59.50 69.05 59.50 70.27 63.50 71.66
1.20 55.50 67.90 56.50 67.90 57.50 67.90 59.50 68.87 62.00 70.96
1.40 52.00 64.00 55.34 64.70 55.34 66.09 56.86 67.48 56.86 68.87
IOWA/MINNESOTA DAILY DIRECT NEGOTIATED HOG PURCHASE MATRIX
LM_HG204, Fri, Aug 26, 2005, USDA Market News Des Moines, Iowa
Comparing bids
Price in appropriate $/cwt A B
Bid Price (live) $44.50 ---
Bid Price (carcass) --- $59.50
Lean premium --- +1.25
Sort discount --- -.70
Dressing percentage 74.5 74.5
Adjusted to live 44.50 44.73
Transportation -.85 -.35
Net farm gate price $43.65 $44.38
Value-Based Cattle Marketing
Three factor impact premiums
1. Carcass Weights
2. Quality Grade Distribution (USDA Grader)
Based on marbling, proxy for eating
experience
3. Yield Grade Distribution (USDA Grader)
Based on lean meat yield
4. Other specs:
Product safety & quality assurance
Acceptable color
Youthfulness
Percent of Beef Grading Prime, Choice, or Select
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
J-95
J-96
J-97
J-98
J-99
J-00
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
J-05
Prime Choice Select
Beef Yield Grade Percentages
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
J-95
J-96
J-97
J-98
J-99
J-00
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
J-05
YG 1 YG 2 YG 3 YG 4+5
Value-Based Cattle Marketing
Year 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Hog or meat
market
formula 44.2 47.2 54 44.5 41.4 41.4 39.9 41.8 38.3 37.1 41.2
Other market
formula 3.4 8.5 5.7 11.8 5.7 7.2 10.3 8.8 8.5 11.0 7.9
Other
purchase
arrangement 14.4 16.9 22.8 8.6 19.2 20.6 15.4 16.6 15.2 13.4 11.6
Product specifications
• PQA, Right to approve inputs
Method of pricing
• Which markets and formula
Delivery scheduling
• Short and long term
Exemptions
Types of Contracts
Formula
• Most common contract
• Price tied to another market, typically spot
• No risk share
• Examples:
» 3-Day rolling average of ISM weighted average
+$1.50
» Last week’s average excluding the high and low
» 92% of the previous day pork cutout value
Packer does not share risk
Types of Contracts
Fixed window
• Formula tied to cash price
• Predetermined upper and lower bounds
• Share pain and gain outside window
• Example: $50-60 and split 50/50 above and
below
Floating window
• Formula tied to cash price
• Boundaries move with feed prices
• Do not share outside of window
Packer shares risk
Weekly Hogs Prices, Cost of Production and Window
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
Cash COP Floating Window Fixed Window
$-
J-90
J-91
J-92
J-94
J-96
J-98
J-99
J-01
J-00
J-97
J-93
J-95
Types of Contracts
Cost-Plus
• Price direct function of feed prices
• Fixed amount for non-feed costs + known margin
• Packer assumes all price risk
Ledger
• Floor price is fixed or based on feed prices
• Producer is “loaned” the difference between floor
and lower cash prices
• Loan is repaid at higher cash prices
• Packer provides line of credit but not risk share
Weekly Hogs Prices, Cost of Production and Contract
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
Cash Cost + COP Ledger
$-
J-90
J-91
J-98
J-99
J-01
J-92
J-93
J-94
J-95
J-96
J-97
J-00
Motivations for Vertical Linkages
Consumer satisfaction
Moisture enhanced pork
Preference for attributes
Growing interest in safety and
production
Spot market not sufficient
Premiums and discounts
Market access and risk
Motivations for Vertical Linkages
Traditional IO theory
Avoid market power, reduce price
volatility, technology complements,
minimize transaction costs
Agency theory
Integrate rather than contract to
avoid opportunism and shirking by
contract partners
Motivations for Vertical Linkages
Asset specificity
Firms with more significant relationship-
specific investments (RSI) benefit from
predictable throughput and prices
As assets become more specialized, the
costs of using the spot market increases
Costs are particularly high when food safety
and product quality problems occur
encouraging greater process control
Accumulated Net Estimated Returns
One Hog Sold per Month
400
100
0
J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J-
-100 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
-200
Attitude Toward Marketing Contracts by
Pork Producers with and without Marketing
Contracts
1 = strongly disagree, 6 = strongly agree
With Without
Coordinate slaughter to better meet Industry needs 3.7 2.9
Have caused lower cash market prices 4.2 4.2
Producers with contracts have received higher prices 3.9 3.5
Packers show preference in who was offered a contract 3.5 3.5
Contracts should be made illegal by Congress 2.7 3.1
Contracts should be more closely monitored by USDA 4.0 4.0
Prefer to market all my hogs on the cash market 3.0 4.1
Role for Economists
The information and characteristics that
consumers are demanding may require
tighter vertical linkages.
Can the spot market provide the non-
measurable process control for
consumers?
If so, at what cost?
Who will pay the added costs?
Will greater control speed consolidation?
Role for Economists
Contract concerns
• Will discuss more in market controversy
section
Share of Reported Pig Sales by Weight
Feeder Pig Trade
70%
Price/head or live weight
60%
40-60 pound classes
50%
Weaned pigs (10-12 pounds)
40%
Primarily direct trade
30%
Rapidly declining auctions
20%
Health and stress concerns
10%
Premiums for
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Large uniform, single source
EW 40 50 Genetic history
Weaned Pig Weekly Volume by Formula and Spot Pricing
100000
90000
Spot market price 80000
Formula Spot
4/13/05
8/13/05
4/13/06
8/13/06
4/13/07
8/13/07
4/13/08
8/13/08
4/13/09
8/13/09
12/13/04
12/13/05
12/13/06
12/13/07
12/13/08
12/13/09
When to sell
Classic production function
• Optimal selling weight is where MC=MR
• The cost of the next pound = the price of the next pound
Cost per pound decrease then increase with weight
• Costs are a function of
» Genetic potential
» Cost of diet
» Opportunity costs of future production
Price per pound increases then decreases
• Weight discounts outside optimal range
• Fatter carcasses are discounted
• Adding extra weight
Market timing
Cycles
Seasonals
Marginal costs and returns
Biological and price cycles
Cycle is a pattern that repeats itself
over a period longer than a year in a
relatively predictable pattern
JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY
U.S., Annual
Mil. Head
140
130
120
110
100
90
80 2009 = 94.5 Million Head
-1.6 Percent
70
4 9 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
19Livestock
19Marketing
19 Information
19 1Center
9 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Data Source: USDA/NASS
TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE
U.S., January 1
Mil. Head
135 1938-
125 49
1949-
115 58
105 1958-
67
95 1967-
85 79
1979-
75 90
65 1990-
04
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2004-
09
US December Market Hog Inventory (1,000) head
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
US December Hog Breeding Herd (1,000 Head)
10,000
9,500
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
What causes cycles
Response to economic signals
Time lag
• Psychology
• Biology
• Investment
Livestock
Tree crops
Land development
Cattle Cycle and Timing
Prices are cyclical
Heifer cost impact profitability
Calf prices impact annual income
Two alternatives
• Steady Size: Same number of heifers
• Dollar Cost Averaging: Same value of
heifers
Heifer Prices 1970-2008
140
Heifer and Offspring Price Comparison
120
1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Heifer Prices ($/cwt.)
120
100
80
60
Average
40 DCA 104
0
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Average Value Per Head by Strategy
$800
$750
$700
$650
$600
$550
$500
$450
$400
$350
$300
Steers Heifers Cows
SS DCA
Return Over Cash Cost
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$-
$(10,000)
$(20,000)
DCA Steady Size
$(30,000)
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Herd Net Worth
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000 DCA Steady Size
$-
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
Seasonal price patterns
Patterns that repeat themselves with
some degree of predictability within
a year’s time frame.
Driven by supply and demand
factors that are impacted by time of
year
• Weather
• Holidays
• Input prices
Seasonal Price Index for Iowa Fed Cattle and Hogs
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
Cattle Hogs
85%
.
.
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ay
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A
M
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$ MC
MR
Weight
Cost of Production
Raised livestock
• Farrow to finish, Cowherd to finish
• Accumulate cost from birth through
finish
• Relatively stable cost over time
• Impacted by input prices and
production
» Feed is typically 60-70% of cost
» Low productivity increases the cost of
those that make it to finish because the
fixed costs are divided by a smaller number.
Cost of Production
Purchased feeder livestock
• Derived demand for feeder animal
• Highly variable price
• Depends upon
» Expected selling price for finished animal
» Feed costs
Cost of production budgets
Starts with production function
Incorporates input prices
Project cost per unit sold
• Variable $/unit
• Total $/unit
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agd
m/livestock/html/b1-21.html
Swine Production - Finishing Weaned 12 lb Pigs, Total Confinement - One Pig
Ag Decision Maker -- Iowa State University Extension
For more information see Information File B1-21 Livestock Enterprise Budgets.
Place the cursor over cells with red triangles to read comments.
Enter input values in yellow grid-lined cells.
Feed Costs
Corn $3.80 per bu x 9.8 bu = $37.24
Soybean meal $0.15 per lb x 119.0 lbs = 17.85
Dried distiller grain $0.06 per lb x 32.0 lbs = 1.92
Vitamin & minerals $0.45 per lb x 14.4 lbs = 6.48
Pre-nursery diet 3.00
Feed Additives 3.00
Feed processing & delivery 6.75
Other 0.00
Total Feed Costs $76.24
Veterinary and medical $5.00
Fuel, repairs, utilities 4.20
Marketing, miscellaneous 4.00
Other 0.00
Manure application cost $0.01 per gal 220 gal = 2.20
Interest on variable costs 9% 3 months = 1.03
Death loss 0.05 head = 1.60
Labor $14.00 per hour 0.7 hours = 9.80
Total Variable Costs $137.25
Fixed Costs
Facilities & equipment $11.28
S1 Move from A to B is a
Px S2
A change in quantity
supplied due to a price
decline.
B
C
Move from B to C is a
shift in supply.
Qx
Supply Shifts from Change
in input prices
in returns for competing enterprises
in price of joint products
in technology on yields or costs
in yield and/or price risk
institutional constraints
SUPPLY DOES NOT CHANGE DUE TO A
CHANGE IN PRICE OF THE OUTPUT
Demand considerations
Demand for meat by consumers
Derived demand for animal by
packers
Derived demand for feeder livestock
by feedlots and finishers
Law of Demand
All else equal consumers will by more
of a item at lower prices and buy less at
higher prices.
Demand begins with individual
consumer
Inverse relationship between quantity
and price
• Two dimensional, Price and Quantity
Downward Sloping
Demand Curve
Px
A
PA
PB B
QA QB Qx
BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP
$/lb Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Choice Retail Price
4.40
4.20 04
05 83
4.00 08 03 84
07
06 91 90 89
3.80 93 01 88
92 87 85
3.60 94
02 86
9500
3.40 96
97 99
3.20 98
3.00
62 67 72 77
Pretail
Pwholesale
Pfarm Dretail Cuts of meat
Dwholesale Carcasses
Dfarm Animals
Q Qx
Derived Demand for Pork
Average retail price $/lb $2.50
Value of trim and scrap $/lb $0.10
Costs from whlse -retail $/lb -$1.00
The most retail will pay $/lb $1.60
Retail pounds per carcass 100
The most retail will pay $/head $160
Derived Demand for Hogs
Wholesale carcass value $/hd $160
Value hide and offal $/hd $25
Costs to slaughter and fab $/hd -$20
The most packer will pay $/hd $165
Wholesale pounds per carcass 200
The most packer will pay $/lb $82.50