Climate Change 2

T.Ivanova, V.Krepl
Recent Climate Change

1) Atmosphere changes
(GHGs, Aerosols)
2) Temperature changes
3) Precipitation &
Storm Changes
4) Sea level change
 Recent Climate Change
1) Atmosphere Changes

Greenhouse gases
 Recent Atmosphere Changes - Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have

historically varied as a result of many natural processes (volcanic
activity, ect).
Since the Industrial Revolution (around 1750/1780) humans have
added a significant amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere by:
•burning fossil fuels,
•cutting down forests,
•other activities.

Because GHGs absorb and emit heat, increasing their

concentrations in the atmosphere will tend to have a warming
effect. But the rate and amount of temperature increase is not
known with absolute certainty.
Carbon dioxide CO2
• Concentrations in the atmosphere increased from about 280
ppm in pre-industrial times to 405 ppm in 2017, >40 % increase.
• Almost all of the increase is due to human activities.
• Current rate of increase in CO2 concentrations is about 1,9 ppmv/year.
• Present CO2 concentrations are higher than any time in at least the
last 650.000 years (IPCC, 2007).

Methane CH4

• Concentrations increased sharply during most of the 20th

century and are now (1786 ppb) 148% above pre-industrial
levels.
• More abundant in the Earth’s atmosphere now than at any time in at
least the past 650.000 years (IPCC, 2007).
• In recent decades, the rate of increase has slowed considerably.
Nitrous oxide N2O

• N2O has increased approximately 18 % in the past 200 years

and continues to increase, 323 ppb in 2012.
• It increased relatively rapidly toward the end of the 20th century (IPCC,
2007).

Tropospheric ozone O3

• It is estimated that O3 has increased by about 36% since the

pre-industrial era, although substantial variations exist for
regions and overall trends (IPCC, 2007).
• Harmful air pollutant at ground level, especially for people with
respiratory diseases and children and adults who are active outdoors.
 (Illustration Barbara Summey, SSAI)

Stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the Sun’s harmful
UV radiation. Chemicals that destroy ozone - methane (CH4),
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), nitrous oxide (N2O) and water - formed by
industrial and natural processes (volcanic injections) - are carried up into
the stratosphere by strong upward-moving air currents in the tropics.
These compounds are broken down by the UV radiation in the
stratosphere. Byproducts of the breakdown of these chemicals form
“radicals” - such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and chlorine monoxide (ClO) -
play an active role in ozone destruction.
Steady decline of about 4% per decade in the total volume of ozone in
Earth's stratosphere, and a much larger springtime decrease in
stratospheric ozone over polar regions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2kpz_8ntJY
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

• These compounds have steadily increased in the atmosphere

since their introduction in 1928.
• Concentrations are slowly declining as a result of their phaseout
via the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
Layer.

Fluorinated gases:
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6)
• are frequently used as substitutes for CFCs and HCFCs and are
increasing in the atmosphere.
• These various fluorinated gases are sometimes called "high
global warming potential greenhouse gases" because, molecule
for molecule, they trap more heat than CO2
 Recent Climate Change
1) Atmosphere Changes

Aerosols
 Recent Atmosphere Changes - Aerosols

Aerosols

• The burning of fossil fuels and biomass has resulted in

aerosol emissions into the atmosphere.
• Aerosols absorb and emit heat, reflect light and, depending on
their properties, can either cool or warm the atmosphere.

• Aerosols can be:

Sulfate aerosols,
Black carbon,
other aerosols
Sulfate aerosols

Sulfate aerosols are emitted when fuel containing sulfur, such as

coal and oil, is burned.
Sulfate aerosols reflect solar radiation back to space and have a
cooling effect.
These aerosols have decreased in concentration in the past two
decades resulting from efforts to reduce the coal-fired power plant
emissions of sulfur dioxide in the word.

Black carbon (or soot)

Its results from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and
biomass burning (forest fires and land clearing) and is believed to
contribute to global warming (IPCC, 2007).
Though global concentrations are likely increasing, there are
significant regional differences - in many countries, efforts to
reduce aerosols.
Other aerosols
emitted in small quantities from human activities:
• organic carbon
• associated aerosols from biomass burning.
• mineral dust aerosols (e.g., from deserts and lake beds)
largely originate from natural sources, but their distribution
can be affected by human activities.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtJzn8A725w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7JiyustiJQ

„The addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the

composition of the atmosphere. The changes in the atmosphere
have likely influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea
level“ (IPCC, 2007).

However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so

determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural
variability versus human activities is challenging.
 Recent Climate Change
1) Atmosphere Changes
¨

Radiative Forcing
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Radiactive Forcing
Radiative forcing
is the change in the balance between solar radiation entering the
atmosphere and the Earth's radiation going out.

Positive radiative forcing tends to warm the surface of the Earth

Negative forcing tends to cool the surface.
Radiative forcing is measured in Watts per square meter (W/m2),
which is a measure of energy.
For example: an increase in radiative forcing of +1 W/m2 is like shining one
small holiday tree light bulb
over every m2 of the Earth.
- Greenhouse gases have a positive radiative forcing because
they absorb and emit heat.

The radiative forcing contribution (since 1750) from increasing

concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (including CO2,
CH4, N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, and fluorinated gases) is estimated to
be +2,64 W/m2 - over half due to increases in CO2 (+1.66 W/m2),
strongly contributing to warming relative to other climate
components described below.

NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which tracks changes in
radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over time, shows that
radiative forcing from greenhouse gases has increased 21,5%
since 1990 as of 2006.
Much of the increase (63%) has resulted from the contribution of
CO2.
The contribution to positive radiative forcing by CH4 and CFCs in
recent years has been nearly constant or declining.

The radiative forcing contribution from increasing tropospheric

ozone, an unevenly distributed greenhouse gas, is estimated to
be +0,35 W/m2 (on average), resulting in a relatively small
warming effect.
The radiative forcing contribution from the observed depletion of
stratospheric ozone is estimated to be -0,05 W/m2, resulting in a
relatively small cooling effect.
- Aerosols can have a positive or negative radiative forcing,
depending on how it absorb and emit heat and/or reflect light.
Black carbon aerosols - which have a positive forcing - more
effectively absorb and emit heat than sulfates, which have a
negative forcing and more effectively reflect light.

Net effect of all aerosols added to the atmosphere has likely been
negative - cooling effect.
- Land use change including: urbanization, deforestation,
reforestation, desertification, etc. can have significant effects on
radiative forcing (and the climate) at the local level by changing
the reflectivity of the land surface (or albedo).
For example, because farmland is more reflective than forests (which
are strong absorbers of heat), replacing forests with farmland would
negatively contribute to radiative forcing or have a cooling effect.
Averaged over the Earth, the net radiative forcing contribution of
land use changes, while uncertain, is estimated to be -0,2 W/m2
(IPCC, 2007), resulting in a relatively small cooling effect.

- Based on a limited, 25-year record, the effect of changes in the

sun's intensity on radiative forcing is estimated to be relatively
small, or a contribution of about +0,12 W/m2, resulting in a
relatively small warming effect.
 Recent Climate Change
2) Temperature Changes

Temperatures are changing in the lower atmosphere - from the

Earth’s surface all the way through the stratosphere (14,5-22,5
km above the Earth’s surface).
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Surface Temperature Change

Surface Temperature Change

Records from land stations and ships indicate that the global
mean surface temperature warmed by between 0.5 and 1.8°C
since 1850.

The IPCC concluded in 2007 that warming of the climate system

is now “unequivocal,” (nesporný) based on observations of increases
in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.

According to the NOAA and NASA, 2006 :

• Since the mid 1970s, the average surface temperature has
warmed about 0.5°C.
• The Earth’s surface is currently warming at a rate of about
0.1ºC/decade or 1.7°C/century.
• The top 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1990.
Additionally (from IPCC, 2007):

1. The warming trend is seen in both daily maximum and

minimum temperatures, with minimum temperatures increasing
at a faster rate than maximum temperatures.

2. Land areas have tended to warm faster than ocean areas and
the winter months have warmed faster than summer months.

3. Widespread reductions in the number of days below freezing

occurred during the latter half of the 20th century in the United
States as well as most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere
and areas of the Southern Hemisphere.

4. Average temperatures in the Arctic have increased at almost

twice the global rate in the past 100 years.
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Tropospheric Temperature Change

Tropospheric Temperature Change

Measurements of the Earth’s temperature taken by weather balloons

(radiosondes) and satellites from the surface to approx. 14-20 km into
the atmosphere - the layer called the troposphere - also reveal
warming trends.

According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center:

• For the period 1958-2006, temperatures measured by weather

balloons warmed at a rate of 0.12°C per decade near the surface and
0.15°C per decade in the mid-troposphere.
• For the period beginning in 1979, when satellite measurements of
troposphere temperatures began, various satellite data sets for the
mid-troposphere showed similar rates of warming - ranging from
0.05°C per decade to 0.19°C per decade, depending on the method of
analysis.
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Stratospheric Temperature Change

Stratospheric Temperature Change

Weather balloons and satellites have also taken temperature

readings in the stratosphere – the layer 14.5-22.5 km above the
Earth’s surface.

This level of the atmosphere has cooled.

The cooling is consistent with observed stratospheric ozone

depletion since ozone is a greenhouse gas and has a warming
effect when present.

It’s also likely that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in

the troposphere are contributing to cooling in the stratosphere as
predicted by radiative theory (Karl et al., 2006).
 Recent Climate Change
3) Precipitation and Storm Changes

Precipitation Changes
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Precipitation Change

Increasing temperatures tend to increase evaporation which leads

to more precipitation (IPCC, 2007).

As average global temperatures have risen, average global

precipitation has also increased.

According to the IPCC, the following precipitation trends have

been observed:
Precipitation has generally increased over land north of 30°N
from 1900-2005, but has mostly declined over the tropics since
the 1970s.
Globally there has been no statistically significant overall
trend in precipitation over the past century, although trends have
widely by region and over time.
It has become significantly wetter in eastern parts of North and
South America, northern Europe, and northern and central Asia

But drier in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and

parts of southern Asia.

There has been an increase in the number of heavy precipitation

events over many areas during the past century, as well as an
increase since the 1970s in the prevalence of droughts- especially
in the tropics and subtropics.
In the Northern Hemisphere's mid- and high latitudes, the
precipitation trends are consistent with climate model simulations
that predict an increase in precipitation due to human-induced
warming.

By contrast, the degree to which human influences have been

responsible for any variations in tropical precipitation patterns is
not well understood or agreed upon, as climate models often differ
in their regional projections (IPCC, 2007).
 Recent Climate Change
3) Precipitation and Storm Changes

Storm Changes
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Storm Change

There is large natural variability in the intensity and frequency

of mid latitude storms and associated features such as
thunderstorms, hail events and tornadoes.

To date, there is no long-term evidence of systematic changes in

these types of events over the course of the past 100 years
(IPCC, 2007).

The frequency and intensity of tropical storm systems have also

varied over the 20th century on annual, decadal and multi-
decadal time scales.

For example, in the Atlantic basin, the period from about 1995-
2005 was extremely active both in terms of the overall number of
tropical storm systems including hurricanes as well as in storm
intensity. However, the two to three decades prior to the mid-
1990s were characterized as a relatively inactive period.
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season broke record after record - most named storms,
lowest pressure measured in the Atlantic, longest-lived December hurricane - and the
list goes on. This image provides a summary of the season, with the track of each
named storm marked in black. In all, 30 tropical depressions, tropical storms, and
hurricanes formed in 2005.

Name Date Category

1 Tropical Storm Arlene June 8–13
2 Tropical Storm Bret June 28–30
3 Tropical Storm Cindy July 3–7
4 Hurricane Dennis July 5–3 4
5 Hurricane Emily July 11–21 4
6 Tropical Storm Franklin July 21–29
7 Tropical Storm Gert July 23–25
8 Tropical Storm Harvey August 2–8
9 Hurricane Irene 04–18 August 2
10 Tropical Depression 10 August 13–14
11 Tropical Storm Jose August 22–23
12 Hurricane Katrina August 23–31 5
13 Tropical Storm Lee August 28–September 2
14 Hurricane Maria September 1–10 3
15 Hurricane Nate September 5–10 1
16 Hurricane Ophelia September 6–18 1
17 Hurricane Philippe September 17–24 1
18 Hurricane Rita September 18–26 5
19 Tropical Depression 19 September 30–October 2
20 Hurricane Stan October 1–5 1
21 Tropical Storm Tammy October 5–6
22 Tropical Depression 22 October 8–9
23 Hurricane Vince October 9–11 1
24 Hurricane Wilma October 15–25 5
25 Tropical Storm Alpha October 22–24
26 Hurricane Beta October 27–31 3
27 Tropical Depression 27 November 14–16
28 Tropical Storm Gamma November 18–21
29 Tropical Storm Delta November 23–28
30 Hurricane Epsilon November 29–December 8 1
Following the Atlantic hurricane season of 2005, which set a
record with 30 named storms, a great deal of attention has
focused on the relationship between hurricanes and climate
change.

To provide an updated assessment of the current state of

knowledge of the impact of global warming on tropical systems,
the WMO’s (World Meteorological Organization) hurricane
researchers published a consensus statement:
There is general agreement that no individual events in [2004 and
2005] can be attributed directly to the recent warming of the global
oceans…[but] it is possible that global warming may have affected
the 2004-2005 group of events as a whole.”
 Recent Climate Cha
4) Sea level change
 Recent Atmosphere Changes – Sea level change

Sea levels are rising worldwide and along much of the U.S.
coast (IPCC, 2007).
Tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry suggest that
sea level has risen worldwide approximately 12-22 cm during the
last century = 1,2-2,2 mm/year (IPCC, 2007).
A significant amount of sea level rise has likely resulted from the
observed warming of the atmosphere and the oceans.

According to the IPCC, the primary factors driving current sea

level rise include:
• the expansion of ocean water caused by warmer ocean
temperatures
• melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps
• (to a lesser extent) melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the
Antarctic Ice Sheet
Recent Atmosphere Changes – Sea level change

Source: IPCC
Other factors may also be responsible for part of the historic rise
in sea level including: the pumping of ground water for human
use, wetland drainage…
Considering all of these factors, scientists still cannot account
for the last century's sea level rise in its entirety. It is possible that
some contributors to sea level rise have not been documented or
well-quantified.

Globally (IPCC, 2007):

• Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh - most of the Pacific and
Atlantic basins - are experiencing avagare to above-average sea
level rise.
• Northwestern Australia is experiencing below-average sea level
rise, a trend that is evident in much of the ocean between western
Australia and East Africa.
• Many coastal areas outside of the U.S., Europe and Japan have
too few tide gauges to be sure about long-term trends in regional
sea level rise.
Future Climate Change
1) Future Atmosphere Changes
(GHGs, Aerosols)
2) Future Temperature Changes
3) Future Precipitation &
Storm Changes
4) Future Sea Level Changes
Introduction

GHGs concentrations in the atmosphere will increase during the

next century unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease
substantially from present levels.

Increased greenhouse gas concentrations are very likely to raise

the Earth's average temperature, influence precipitation and some
storm patterns as well as raise sea levels (IPCC, 2007).

The magnitude of these changes, however, is uncertain.

Climate models
Virtually all published estimates of how the climate could change
in the future are produced by computer models of the Earth’s
climate system.
These models are known as
general circulation models (GCMs)

“Models have proven to be extremely important tools for simulating and

understanding climate, and there is considerable confidence that they are able
to provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly
at larger scales. Models continue to have significant limitations (regional
details..)” IPCC 2007.
 The supercomputer room at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. This is one of only a few machines in the world
capable of handling a full Global Climate Model. Such models, which take into
account hundreds of different phenomena and their interactions, are among the
largest jobs handled by any computer.
 Future Climate Change
1) Future Atmosphere Changes
 Future Atmosphere Changes

The extent and speed of future atmosphere changes will be

driven by the level of GHGs and aerosol emissions over time -
Human activities are major sources of these emissions, which
have increased in the past and are projected to continue
increasing in the future, although governments are taking steps to
slow their growth.

To project changes in GHGs and aerosol emissions, and the

resulting changes in their concentration in the atmosphere, future
scenarios are developed that include assumptions about:
• global population,
• living standards,
• energy use and
• technology.
 Near-term scenarios (through 2020 or 2030) of future GHG
emissions have been developed by U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA)

Global non-CO2 GHGs emissions are projected to grow 44% by

2020 relative to 1990 levels.
Global emissions of CO2 are predicted to increase about 74% in
2030 comaping to 2003 based on changes in energy supply and
demand and prices.
Developing countries such as China will be the primary source
of new emissions
 Long term scenarios (through 2100) developed by the IPCC,
2007:

Carbon dioxide

Concentrations in the atmosphere will increase throughout the

21st century. The scenarios project CO2 concentrations ranging
from 535 to 983 ppm by 2100, which is 41 to 158 % higher than
current levels (IPCC, 2007).
 Long term scenarios (through 2100) developed by the IPCC,
2007:

Methane

Concentrations in the atmosphere are projected to range from

1.46 ppm to 3.39 ppm by 2100, or about 18% lower to 91% higher
than the current concentrations.
 Long term scenarios (through 2100) developed by the IPCC,
2007:

Nitrous Oxide

Concentrations are projected to be 0.36 to 0.46 ppm in 2100,

values that are 11 to 45 % higher than current concentrations.
 Long term scenarios (through 2100) developed by the IPCC,
2007:
Fluorinated gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF6 are expected to increase
significantly - substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons, which are being
phased out through the Montreal Protocol.

Tropospheric ozone

concentrations are projected to increase 40-60% under high

emissions scenarios (IPCC, 2007).

Sulfate aerosols

are generally projected to decrease whereas projections for black

carbon (soot) are uncertain.
 Future Climate Change
2) Future Temperature Changes
Most climate change scenarios project that GHG concentrations
will increase through 2100 with a continued increase in average
global temperatures (IPCC 2007).

How much and how quickly the Earth's temperature will increase
remains unknown given the uncertainty of future GHGs, aerosol
emissions and the Earth's response to changing conditions.

In addition, natural influences, such as changes in the sun and

volcanic activity, may affect future temperature, although the
extent is unknown because the timing and intensity of natural
influences cannot be predicted.
In most future warming projections is almost certainly positive, but
there is considerable uncertainty about the exact magnitude.
Average surface temperature
of the Earth is likely to increase by 1,1 to 6,4°C by the end of the
21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 1,8 to
4,0°C.
The average rate of warming over each inhabited continent is very
likely to be at least twice as large as that experienced during the
20th century

Temperature projections to the year 2100, based on a range of emission scenarios and global
climate models. Scenarios that assume the highest growth in GHG emissions provide the
estimates in the top end of the temperature range. The orange line (“constant CO2”) projects global
temperatures with greenhouse gas concentrations stabilized at year 2000 levels.
Distribution around the globe - warming will not be evenly
distributed around the globe:
• Land areas will warm more than oceans.
• High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes.
• Most of North America; all of Africa, Europe, northern and
central Asia; and most of Central and South America are likely
to warm more than the global average. Projections suggest that
the warming will be close to the global average in south Asia,
Australia and New Zealand, and southern South America.

Projected future regional patterns

of warming based on three
emissions scenarios

(low, medium, and high growth)

According to several recent studies, even if the composition of
today's atmosphere was fixed (which would imply a dramatic
reduction in current emissions), surface air temperatures
would continue to warm (by up to 1,6ºC or 0,9ºC).

The studies suggest that a portion of the warming associated

with past human activity has not yet been realized due to heat
being stored in the ocean, and that the Earth is committed to
continued warming. In addition, many of the GHGs that have
already been emitted remain in the atmosphere for decades
or longer, and will continue to contribute to warming for their
duration (The Earth's Commitment to Warming).
 Future Climate Change
3) Future Precipitation and Storm Changes

Precipitation Changes
 Future Atmosphere Changes – Precipitation changes

According to the IPCC:

- Increase in the average global temperature is very likely to
lead to changes in precipitation - increase in global average
annual precipitation during the 21st century, although changes
in precipitation will vary from region to region.

- Increase in the intensity of precipitation events, particularly

in tropical and high-latitude regions.
- Reduced rainfall over continental interiors during summer.
Annual average precipitation increases over most of:
• northern Europe,
• the Arctic,
• Canada,
• the northeastern USA,
• tropical and eastern Africa,
• the northern Pacific,
• Antarctica,
• northern Asia and
• the Tibetan Plateau in winter.

Annual average precipitation decreases during winter in:

• the Mediterranean,
• northern Africa,
• northern Sahara,
• Central America,
• the American Southwest,
• the southern Andes and
• The southwestern Australia.
 Future Climate Change
3) Future Precipitation and Storm Changes

Storm Changes
Mid-latitude storm tracks are projected to shift toward the
poles, with increased intensity in some areas but reduced
frequency.

Tropical storms and hurricanes are likely to become:

• more intense,
• produce stronger peak winds, and
• produce increased rainfall over some areas due to
warming sea surface temperatures (which can energize
these storms) (IPCC, 2007).

The relationship between sea surface temperatures and the

frequency of tropical storms is less clear.

There is currently no scientific consensus on how future

climate change is likely to affect the frequency of tropical storms
in any part of the world where they occur (WMO, 2006).
 Future Climate Change
4) Future Sea Level Changes
IPCC estimates that the global average sea level will rise by 18
to 59 cm by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 under a range of
scenarios.

•Current model projections indicate substantial variability in future

sea level rise between different locations.
•The same factors that currently cause sea level to rise more
rapidly along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, and less
rapidly in parts of the Pacific Northwest, are likely to continue.
•Changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and ocean currents will
also cause regional variations in sea level rise - but those
variations cannot be reliably predicted.
Over time, more substantial changes in sea level
are possible due to the vulnerability of the West
Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheets.

However, there are significant uncertainties about

the magnitude and speed of future changes (IPCC,
2007)
- The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise sea level by
5-6 meters.
Possible instabilities in the ice sheet could allow it to slide into the oceans
after a sustained warming, or if other factors raised sea level.
There is a small chance the collapse of this ice sheet could occur within a
few centuries - response of the ice sheet to future climate change is
uncertain and a subject of debate.
- The Greenland Ice sheet contains enough ice to raise sea level about 7
meters.
Although it is already contributing to sea level rise (from melting), it does not
contain the same instabilities as Antarctica. Most model projections suggest
a gradual melting over millennia related to sustained climate warming
(IPCC, 2007).
 State of Knowledge

As with any field of scientific study, there are uncertainties

associated with the science of climate change.
This does not imply that scientists do not have confidence in
many aspects of climate science. Some aspects of the science
are known with virtual certainty, because they are based on
well-known physical laws and documented trends.
Current understanding of many other aspects of climate
change ranges from “very likely” to “uncertain”.
 Scientists know with virtual certainty that:
1. Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's
atmosphere.
Increasing levels of GHGs like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-
industrial times are well-documented and understood.

2. An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 0,5 to 0,9°C

occurred from 1906-2005.
Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the
oceans (IPCC, 2007).

3. Increasing GHG concentrations tend to warm the planet.

What's Very Likely?

In the coming decades, scientists anticipate that as
atmospheric concentrations of GHG continue to rise, average
global temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise as a
result and precipitation patterns will change.
What is not Certain?
Important scientific questions remain:
- How much warming will occure?
- How fast it will occure?
- How the warming will affect the rest of the climate system
including precipitation patterns and storms?
Answering these questions will require advances in scientific
knowledge in a number of areas.