Professional Documents
Culture Documents
3 - Technological Forecasting
3 - Technological Forecasting
Identify developments
Policy reorientation
EXPLORATORY
extend the past
NORMATIVE
start from the future
COMBINATION
usually necessary
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
S - CURVE
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
ENVELOPE CURVE
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
PRECURSOR TRENDS
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
DELPHI
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
SCENARIOS
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
TECHNOLOGY MONITORING
Existence Awareness
Impact Speculation
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
METHODS
RELEVANCE TREES
TYPICAL PITFALLS
Unexamined assumptions
Limited or misplaced expertise
Lack of imagination
Neglect of constraints
Excessive optimism
Mechanical extrapolation
Overspecification
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
AND CREATIVE THOUGHT
CREATIVE THOUGHT
ATTRIBUTE ANALYSIS
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Adapt … Modify … Magnify … Reduce
… Substitute … Rearrange … Reverse
… Combine … Other uses …
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CREATIVE THOUGHT
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
THE DANGERS OF BEING
CUSTOMER-LED