Asistensi 2 after UTS

Chapter 33 & 34
By: Khaira Abdillah
Source: Cengage Learning
Chapter 33
• What are economic fluctuations? What are their characteristics?
• How does the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply
explain economic fluctuations?
• Why does the Aggregate-Demand curve slope downward? What
shifts the AD curve?
• What is the slope of the Aggregate-Supply curve in the short run? In
the long run? What shifts the AS curve(s)?
Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations
FACT 1: Economic fluctuations are
irregular and unpredictable.
14,000

12,000 U.S. real GDP,

10,000 billions of 2000 dollars

8,000

6,000 The shaded

bars are
4,000
recessions
2,000

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
4
Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations
FACT 2: Most macroeconomic
quantities fluctuate together.
2,500

Investment spending,
2,000
billions of 2000 dollars

1,500

1,000
When the economy is in
recession, Y falls, C
falls, Profits fall, T falls
500
(T-G<0)
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
5
 Three Facts About Economic Fluctuations
FACT 3: As output falls,
unemployment rises.
12

10 Unemployment rate,
percent of labor force
8
firms cut back
on production, 6
they don’t
need as many 4
workers.
2

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
6
Short Run Fluctuation
• In the short run, GDP fluctuates around its trend.
• Recessions: periods of falling real incomes
and rising unemployment
• Depressions: severe recessions (very rare)
• Short-run economic fluctuations are often called business cycles.
Tools to study Economic Fluctuations
• Most economists use the model of aggregate demand and
aggregate supply to study fluctuations.
• This model differs from the classical economic theories economists
use to explain the long run.
*Recap Classical Economics
• The previous chapters are based on the ideas of classical economics,
especially:
• The Classical Dichotomy, the separation of variables into two groups:
• Real – quantities, relative prices
• Nominal – measured in terms of money

• The neutrality of money:

Changes in the money supply affect nominal but not real variables.
• Most economists believe classical theory describes the world in the
long run, but not the short run.
Difference between SR and LR analysis
• In the short run, changes in nominal variables (like the money supply
or P ) can affect real variables (like Y or the u-rate).
• To study the short run, we use a new model.
TOOL of ANALYSIS 1 : AD CURVE
 The Model of Aggregate Demand
and Aggregate Supply
P
The price
“Aggregate
level
Demand” SRAS
The model “Short-Run
determines the P Aggregate
1
eq’m price level Supply”

and eq’m output AD

(real GDP).
P (y axis) : Nominal Variable Y
Y (x axis) : Real Variable
Y1

The model of aggregate demand and supply, however, determines the

Real GDP, the
equilibrium price and quantity of EVERYTHING (loosely speaking), i.e., quantity of output
the price level (cost of living) and real GDP (national income). 12
 The Aggregate-Demand (AD) Curve
P
The AD curve
shows the P2
quantity of
all g&s
demanded
in the economy P1
at any given price AD
level.
Y
Y2 Y1

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

13
SUPPLY
 Why the AD Curve Slopes Downward
Y = C + I + G + NX P

Assume G fixed
by govt policy. P2

To understand
the slope of AD,
must determine P1
how a change in P AD
affects C, I, and NX.
Y
Y2 Y1

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

14
SUPPLY
WHY AD CURVE SLOPE
DOWNWARD
Wealth Effects, Intereset Effects, and Exchange Rate Effects
Wealth Effects (P & C)
Recall that
Y = C + I + G + NX
Assume G fixed by govt policy.

Suppose P rises.
• The dollars people hold able to buy fewer g&s,
so real wealth is lower.
• People feel poorer.
Result: C falls.
Interest Rate Effects (P & I)
Recall that
Y = C + I + G + NX
Assume G fixed by govt policy.

Suppose P rises.
• Buying g&s requires more dollars.
• To get these dollars, people sell bonds or other assets.
• This drives up interest rates.
(Pbonds >< i, when Supply of bonds increase, Pbonds fall
and i rises)
Result: I falls.
(Recall, I depends negatively on interest rates.)
Exchange Rate Effects (P & NX)
Recall that
Y = C + I + G + NX
Assume G fixed by govt policy.

Suppose P rises.
• Domestic interest rates rise (the interest-rate effect).
• Foreign investors desire more Domestic bonds (Higher Demand for Domestic
Bonds).
• Higher demand for Domestic Currency in foreign exchange market.
• Domestic exchange rate appreciates.
• Domestic exports more expensive to people abroad, imports cheaper to domestic
residents. (X falls, M rises)
Result: NX falls.
The Slope of the AD Curve: Summary
An increase in P P
reduces the quantity
of g&s demanded
because: P2

 the wealth effect

(C falls)
P1
 the interest-rate
AD
effect (I falls)
 the exchange-rate Y
Y2 Y1
effect (NX falls)

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

19
SUPPLY
 Why the AD Curve Might Shift
P
Any event that changes C, I, G, or NX
– except a change in P – will shift
the AD curve.
P1
Example:
A stock market boom makes
households feel wealthier, C rises, AD2
the AD curve shifts right. AD1
Y
Y1 Y2

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

20
SUPPLY
 Factors affecting a Shift in AD
• Changes in C
• Stock market boom/crash
• Preferences re: consumption/saving tradeoff
• Tax hikes/cuts
• Changes in I
• Firms buy new computers, equipment, factories
• Expectations, optimism/pessimism
• Interest rates, monetary policy
• Investment Tax Credit or other tax incentives
 Factors affecting a Shift in AD
• Changes in G
• Federal spending, e.g., defense
• State & local spending, e.g., roads, schools
• Changes in NX
• Booms/recessions in countries that buy our exports.
• Appreciation/depreciation resulting from international speculation in foreign
exchange market
Exercise
Studi Kasus 1
What happens to the AD curve in each of the following scenarios?
A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires.
B. The Domestic exchange rate falls.
C. A fall in prices increases the real value of consumers’ wealth.
D. State governments replace their sales taxes with new taxes on interest,
dividends, and capital gains.
A. A ten-year-old investment tax credit expires.
I falls, AD curve shifts left.
B. The Domestic exchange rate falls.
NX rises, AD curve shifts right.
C. A fall in prices increases the real value of consumers’ wealth.
Move down along AD curve (wealth-effect).
D. State governments replace sales taxes with new taxes on interest,
dividends, and capital gains.
C rises, AD shifts right.
TOOL of ANALYSIS 2 : AS CURVE
 The Aggregate-Supply (AS) Curves
P LRAS
 vertical in
SRAS
The AS curve shows long run
the total quantity of AS is:
g&s firms produce and  upward-sloping
sell at any given price in short run
level.

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

27
SUPPLY
Long run AS curve is vertical
Remember that long run analysis based on classical economics analysis, recall the
concept of classical dichotomy
 The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve (LRAS)

The natural rate of output P LRAS

(YN) is the amount of output
the economy produces when
unemployment
is at its natural rate.
YN is also called potential
output
or
full-employment output. Y
YN

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

29
SUPPLY
 Why LRAS Is Vertical
YN determined by the P LRAS
economy’s stocks of
labor, capital, and
natural resources, and
on the level of
P2
technology.
An increase in P P1

does not affect

any of these,
so it does not Y
YN
affect YN.
(Classical dichotomy)
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
30
SUPPLY
 Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift
P LRAS1 LRAS2
Any event that changes
any of the determinants
of YN will shift LRAS.
Example: Immigration
increases L,
causing YN to rise.

Y
YN Y’
N

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

31
SUPPLY
 Factors affecting a Shift in LRAS
• Changes in L or natural rate of unemployment
• Immigration
• Baby-boomers retire
• Govt policies reduce natural u-rate
• Changes in K or H
• Investment in factories, equipment
• More people get college degrees
• Factories destroyed by a hurricane
 Factors affecting a Shift in LRAS
• Changes in natural resources
• Discovery of new mineral deposits
• Reduction in supply of imported oil
• Changing weather patterns that affect agricultural production
• Changes in technology
• Productivity improvements from technological progress
 Using AD & AS to Depict LR Growth and Inflation

Over the long run, LRAS2000

P LRAS1990
tech. progress shifts LRAS1980
LRAS to the right

and growth in the P2000

money supply shifts AD
to the right. (remember P1990
AD (C, I, G, NX) AD2000
P1980
Result: AD1990
ongoing inflation and AD1980
growth in output. Y
Y1980 Y1990 Y2000

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

34
SUPPLY
Short run AS curve
 Short Run Aggregate Supply (SRAS)
The SRAS curve P
is upward sloping:
Over the period SRAS
of 1-2 years, P2
an increase in P
causes an P1
increase in the
quantity of g &
s supplied. Y
Y1 Y2

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

36
SUPPLY
 Why the Slope of SRAS Matters
P LRAS
If AS is vertical,
fluctuations in AD Phi
SRAS
do not cause
fluctuations in output or Phi
employment.
ADhi
If AS slopes up, Plo
then shifts in AD AD1
Plo
do affect output ADlo
Y
and employment. Ylo Y1 Yhi

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

37
SUPPLY
 Theories Behind SRAS
In each theory, the common ground is
• some type of market imperfection
• result:
Output deviates from its natural rate
when the actual price level deviates
from the price level people expected.
 Theory 1 of SRAS: Sticky Wage
• Imperfection: Nominal wages are sticky in the short run, they adjust
sluggishly.
• Due to labor contracts, social norms
• Firms and workers set the nominal wage in advance based on PE, the
price level they expect to prevail
• If P > PE, revenue is higher, but labor cost is not. Production is more
profitable, so firms increase output and employment.
• Hence, higher P causes higher Y, so the SRAS curve slopes upward.
 Theory 2 of SRAS: Sticky Price
• Imperfection: Many prices are sticky in the short run.
• Due to menu costs, the costs of adjusting prices.
• Examples: cost of printing new menus, the time required to change price tags
• Firms set sticky prices in advance based on PE.
• Suppose the Central Bank increases the money supply unexpectedly. In the long
run, P will rise.
• In the short run,
• Firms without menu costs can raise their prices immediately.
• Firms with menu costs wait to raise prices. Meantime, their prices are relatively low, which
increases demand for their products, so they increase output and employment.
• Hence, higher P is associated with higher Y, so the SRAS curve slopes upward.
 Theory 3 of SRAS: The Misperceptions
• Imperfection: Firms may confuse changes in P with changes in the
relative price of the products they sell.
• If P rises above PE, a firm sees its price rise before realizing all prices
are rising. The firm may believe its relative price is rising, and may
increase output and employment.
• So, an increase in P can cause an increase in Y, making the SRAS curve
upward-sloping.
 What the 3 Theories Have in Common:
In all 3 theories, Y deviates from YN when
P deviates from PE.

Y = YN + a (P – PE)
Output Expected
price level
Natural rate
of output
a > 0,
measures Actual
(long-run) price level
how much Y
responds to
unexpected
changes in P
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
42
SUPPLY
 What the 3 Theories Have in Common:
Y = YN + a(P – PE)
P

SRAS
When P > PE

the expected
PE
price level

When P < PE

Y
YN

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

Y < YN Y > YN
43
SUPPLY
 SRAS and LRAS
• The imperfections in these theories are temporary. Over time,
• sticky wages and prices become flexible
• misperceptions are corrected

• In the LR,
• PE = P
• AS curve is vertical
 SRAS and LRAS
Y = YN + a(P – PE)
P LRAS

SRAS
In the long run,
PE = P
PE
and
Y = Y N.

Y
YN
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
45
SUPPLY
 The Long-Run Equilibrium
In the long-run P LRAS
equilibrium,
SRAS
PE = P,
Y = YN ,
PE
and unemployment is
at its natural rate.
AD
Y
YN

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

46
SUPPLY
 Why the SRAS Curve Might Shift

Everything that shifts LRAS shifts P LRAS

SRAS, too. SRAS
Also, PE shifts SRAS: SRAS
If PE rises, workers & firms set PE
higher wages.
At each P, production is less PE
profitable, Y falls, SRAS shifts left.

Y
YN
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
47
SUPPLY
Analysing the Economic
Fluctuations
On the following slides we learn how to analysis economic fluctuations using the AS
and AD curves
 Economic Fluctuations
• Caused by events that shift the AD and/or AS curves.
• Four steps to analyzing economic fluctuations:
1. Determine whether the event shifts AD or AS.
2. Determine whether curve shifts left or right.
3. Use AD-AS diagram to see how the shift changes Y and P in the short run.
4. Use AD-AS diagram to see how economy moves from new SR eq’m to new
LR eq’m.
 The Effects of a Shift in AD
Event: Stock market crash
1. Affects C, AD curve P LRAS
2. C falls, so AD shifts left SRAS1
3. SR eq’m at B.
P and Y lower, P1 A
unemp higher SRAS2
4. Over time, PE falls, P2 B
SRAS shifts right, AD1
until LR eq’m at C. P3 C
Y and unemp back AD2
at initial levels. Y
Y2 YN

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

50
SUPPLY
 Two Big AD Shifts:
1. The Great Depression
From 1929-1933, U.S. Real GDP,
• money supply fell 28% billions of 2000 dollars
900
due to problems in 850
banking system 800
• stock prices fell 90%, 750
reducing C and I 700
650
• Y fell 27%
600
• P fell 22%
550
• u-rate rose

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934
from 3% to 25%
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
51
SUPPLY
 Two Big AD Shifts:
2. The World War II Boom

From 1939-1944, U.S. Real GDP,

billions of 2000 dollars
• govt outlays rose 2,000
from $9.1 billion 1,800
to $91.3 billion 1,600
• Y rose 90% 1,400
• P rose 20% 1,200

• unemp fell 1,000

from 17% to 1% 800

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
52
SUPPLY
Exercise
• Draw the AD-SRAS-LRAS diagram for the U.S. economy starting in a
long-run equilibrium. A boom occurs in Canada. Use your diagram to
determine the SR and LR effects on U.S. GDP, the price level, and
unemployment.
ACTIVE LEARNING 2
Answers
Event: Boom in Canada P LRAS
1. Affects NX, AD curve SRAS2

2. Shifts AD right
3. SR eq’m at point B. P3 C SRAS1
P and Y higher, P2 B
unemp lower
P1 A AD2
4. Over time, PE rises,
SRAS shifts left, AD1
until LR eq’m at C. Y
Y and unemp back YN Y2
at initial levels.
54
Exercise
• Draw the AD-SRAS-LRAS diagram for the U.S. economy starting in a
long-run equilibrium. Global Oil Price Increases. Use your diagram to
determine the SR and LR effects on U.S. GDP, the price level, and
unemployment.
 The Effects of a Shift in SRAS
Event: Oil prices rise
1. Increases costs, P LRAS
shifts SRAS
(assume LRAS constant) SRAS2

2. SRAS shifts left SRAS1

B
3. SR eq’m at point B. P2
P higher, Y lower,
unemp higher P1 A

From A to B, stagflation,
a period of AD1
falling output Y
Y2 YN
and rising prices.
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
56
SUPPLY
 Accommodating an Adverse Shift in SRAS
If policymakers do nothing,
4. Low employment
P LRAS
causes wages to fall, SRAS
shifts right, until LR eq’m SRAS2
at A.
P3 C SRAS1
B
Or, policymakers could P2
use fiscal or monetary P1 A
policy to increase AD AD2
and accommodate the
AS shift: AD1
Y
Y back to YN, but Y2 YN
P permanently higher.
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE
57
SUPPLY
 The 1970s Oil Shocks and Their Effects

1973-75 1978-80

Real oil prices + 138% + 99%

CPI + 21% + 26%

Real GDP – 0.7% + 2.9%

# of unemployed + 3.5 + 1.4

persons million million

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE

58
SUPPLY
John Maynard Keynes 1883 - 1946
• The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
Money, 1936
• Argued recessions and depressions can result from
inadequate demand; policymakers should shift AD.
• Famous critique of classical theory
The long run is a misleading guide
to current affairs. In the long run,
we are all dead. Economists set themselves
too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons
they can only tell us when the storm is long past,
the ocean will be flat.
Summary
• This chapter has introduced the model of aggregate demand and
aggregate supply,
which helps explain economic fluctuations.
• Keep in mind: these fluctuations are deviations from the long-run
trends explained by the models we learned in previous chapters.
• In the next chapter, we will learn how policymakers can affect
aggregate demand
with fiscal and monetary policy.
Summary
• Short-run fluctuations in GDP and other macroeconomic quantities
are irregular and unpredictable. Recessions are periods of falling real
GDP and rising unemployment.
• Economists analyze fluctuations using the model of aggregate
demand and aggregate supply.
• The aggregate demand curve slopes downward because a change in
the price level has a wealth effect on consumption, an interest-rate
effect on investment, and an exchange-rate effect on net exports.
Summary
• Anything that changes C, I, G, or NX
– except a change in the price level – will shift the aggregate demand
curve.
• The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical because changes in
the price level do not affect output in the long run.
• In the long run, output is determined by labor, capital, natural
resources, and technology; changes in any of these will shift the long-
run aggregate supply curve.
Summary
• In the short run, output deviates from its natural rate when the price
level is different than expected, leading to an upward-sloping short-
run aggregate supply curve. The three theories proposed to explain
this upward slope are the sticky wage theory, the sticky price theory,
and the misperceptions theory.
• The short-run aggregate-supply curve shifts in response to changes in
the expected price level and to anything that shifts the long-run
aggregate supply curve.
Summary
• Economic fluctuations are caused by shifts in aggregate demand and
aggregate supply.
• When aggregate demand falls, output and the price level fall in the
short run. Over time, a change in expectations causes wages, prices,
and perceptions to adjust, and the short-run aggregate supply curve
shifts rightward. In the long run, the economy returns to the natural
rates of output and unemployment, but with a lower price level.
• A fall in aggregate supply results in stagflation – falling output and
rising prices. Wages, prices, and perceptions adjust over time, and
the economy recovers.
Chapter 34
• How does the interest-rate effect help explain the slope of the
aggregate-demand curve?
• How can the central bank use monetary policy to shift the AD curve?
• In what two ways does fiscal policy affect aggregate demand?
• What are the arguments for and against using policy to try to stabilize
the economy?
• Earlier chapters covered:
• the long-run effects of fiscal policy on interest rates, investment,
economic growth
• the long-run effects of monetary policy on the price level and
inflation rate
• This chapter focuses on the short-run effects of fiscal and monetary
policy, which work through aggregate demand.
Aggregate Demand
• Recall, the AD curve slopes downward for three reasons:
• The wealth effect the most important
• The interest-rate effect of these effects for
• The exchange-rate effect the U.S. economy
• Next:
A supply-demand model that helps explain the interest-rate effect
and how monetary policy affects aggregate demand.

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND

68
FISCAL POLICY
 The Theory of Liquidity Preference
• A simple theory of the interest rate (denoted r)
• r adjusts to balance supply and demand for money
• Money supply: assume fixed by central bank, does not depend on
interest rate
 The Theory of Liquidity Preference
• Money demand reflects how much wealth people want to hold in
liquid form.
• For simplicity, suppose household wealth includes only two assets:
• Money – liquid but pays no interest
• Bonds – pay interest but not as liquid
• A household’s “money demand” reflects its preference for liquidity.
• The variables that influence money demand: Y, r, and P.
 Money Demand
• Suppose real income (Y) rises. Other things equal, what happens to
money demand?
• If Y rises:
• Households want to buy more g&s, so they need more money.
• To get this money, they attempt to sell some of their bonds.
• I.e., an increase in Y causes an increase in money demand, other things
equal.
 The Determinants of Money Demand
A. Suppose r rises, but Y and P are unchanged. What happens to
money demand?
B. Suppose P rises, but Y and r are unchanged. What happens to
money demand?
A. Suppose r rises, but Y and P are unchanged.
What happens to money demand?
r is the opportunity cost of holding money.
An increase in r reduces money demand: households attempt to
buy bonds to take advantage of the higher interest rate.
Hence, an increase in r causes a decrease in money demand, other
things equal.
B. Suppose P rises, but Y and r are unchanged.
What happens to money demand?
If Y is unchanged, people will want to buy the same amount of g&s.
Since P is higher, they will need more money to do so.
Hence, an increase in P causes an increase in money demand, other
things equal.
 How r Is Determined
Interest MS curve is vertical:
rate MS Changes in r do not
affect MS, which is
r1 fixed by the Fed.
MD curve is
Eq’m downward sloping:
interest A fall in r increases
rate MD1 money demand.

M
Quantity fixed
by the Fed
THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND
75
FISCAL POLICY
 How the Interest-Rate Effect Works
A fall in P reduces money demand, which lowers r.
Interest P
rate MS

r1
P1

r2 P2
MD1 AD
MD2
M Y1 Y2 Y

A fall in r increases I and the quantity of g&s demanded.

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND
76
FISCAL POLICY
 Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand
• To achieve macroeconomic goals, the Central Bank can use monetary
policy to shift the AD curve.
• The Central Bank’s policy instrument is MS.
• The news often reports that the Central Bank targets the interest rate.
• More precisely, the federal funds rate (US) – which banks charge each other
on short-term loans
• To change the interest rate and shift the AD curve, the Central Bank
conducts open market operations to change MS.
 The Effects of Reducing the Money Supply
The Fed can raise r by reducing the money supply.
Interest P
rate MS2 MS1

r2
P1
r1
AD1
MD AD2
M Y2 Y1 Y

An increase in r reduces the quantity of g&s demanded.

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND
78
FISCAL POLICY
 Exercise Monetary Policy Cases
For each of the events below,
- determine the short-run effects on output
- determine how the Central Bank should adjust the money supply
and interest rates to stabilize output
A. Congress tries to balance the budget by cutting govt spending.
B. A stock market boom increases household wealth.
C. War breaks out in the Middle East, causing oil prices to soar.
A. Congress tries to balance the budget by
cutting govt spending.
This event would reduce aggregate demand and output.
To offset this event, the Central Bank should increase MS and
reduce r to increase aggregate demand.
B. A stock market boom increases household
wealth
This event would increase agg demand, raising output above its
natural rate.
To offset this event, the Central Bank should reduce MS and
increase r to reduce agg demand.
C. War breaks out in the Middle East, causing oil
prices to soar.
This event would reduce agg supply, causing output to fall.
To offset this event, the Central Bank should increase MS and
reduce r to increase agg demand.
 Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand
• Fiscal policy: the setting of the level of govt spending and taxation by
govt policymakers
• Expansionary fiscal policy
• an increase in G and/or decrease in T
• shifts AD right
• Contractionary fiscal policy
• a decrease in G and/or increase in T
• shifts AD left
• Fiscal policy has two effects on AD...
 The Multiplier Effect
• If the govt buys $20b of planes from Boeing, Boeing’s revenue increases by
$20b.
• This is distributed to Boeing’s workers (as wages) and owners (as profits or
stock dividends).
• These people are also consumers and will spend a portion of the extra
income.
• This extra consumption causes further increases in aggregate demand.

Multiplier effect: the additional shifts in AD

that result when fiscal policy increases income
and thereby increases consumer spending
 1. The Multiplier Effect
A $20b increase in G P
initially shifts AD
to the right by $20b.
The increase in Y AD2 AD3
AD1
causes C to rise, which
shifts AD further to the
P1
right.
$20 billion

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND

85
FISCAL POLICY
 Marginal Propensity to Consume
• How big is the multiplier effect?
It depends on how much consumers respond to increases in income.
• Marginal propensity to consume (MPC):
the fraction of extra income that households consume rather than
save
E.g., if MPC = 0.8 and income rises $100,
C rises $80.
 A Formula for the Multiplier
Notation: G is the change in G,
Y and C are the ultimate changes in Y and C
Y = C + I + G + NX identity
Y = C + G I and NX do not change
Y = MPC Y + G because C = MPC Y
1
Y = G solved for Y
1 – MPC

The multiplier

THE INFLUENCE OF MONETARY AND

87
FISCAL POLICY
A Formula for the Multiplier

The size of the multiplier depends on MPC.

E.g., if MPC = 0.5 multiplier = 2
if MPC = 0.75 multiplier = 4
if MPC = 0.9 multiplier = 10
A bigger MPC means
1 changes in Y cause
Y = G
1 – MPC bigger changes in C,
which in turn cause
The multiplier more changes in Y.

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Other Applications of Multiplier Effect
• The multiplier effect:
Each $1 increase in G can generate
more than a $1 increase in agg demand.
• Also true for the other components of GDP.
Example: Suppose a recession overseas reduces demand for U.S.
net exports by $10b.
Initially, agg demand falls by $10b.
The fall in Y causes C to fall, which further reduces agg demand and
income.
 2. The Crowding Out Effect
• Fiscal policy has another effect on AD that works in the opposite
direction.
• A fiscal expansion raises r,
which reduces investment (I),
which reduces the net increase in agg demand.
• So, the size of the AD shift may be smaller than the initial fiscal
expansion.
• This is called the crowding-out effect.
 How the Crowding-Out Effect Works
A $20b increase in G initially shifts AD right by $20b
Interest P
rate MS

AD AD2
r2 AD1 3

P1
r1
MD2 $20 billion

MD1
M Y1 Y3 Y2 Y

But higher Y increases MD and r, which reduces AD.

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FISCAL POLICY
 Changes in Taxes
• A tax cut increases households’ take-home pay.
• Households respond by spending a portion of this extra income, shifting
AD to the right.
• The size of the shift is affected by the multiplier and crowding-out
effects.
• Another factor: whether households perceive the tax cut to be
temporary or permanent.
• A permanent tax cut causes a bigger increase in C – and a bigger shift in the
AD curve –
than a temporary tax cut.
Studi Kasus (lagi..)
The economy is in recession.
Shifting the AD curve rightward by $200b would end the recession.
A. If MPC = .8 and there is no crowding out,
how much should Congress increase G
to end the recession?
B. If there is crowding out, will Congress need to increase G more or
less than this amount?
The economy is in recession.
Shifting the AD curve rightward by $200b
would end the recession.
A. If MPC = .8 and there is no crowding out,
how much should Congress increase G
to end the recession?
Multiplier = 1/(1 – .8) = 5
Increase G by $40b
to shift agg demand by 5 x $40b = $200b.
The economy is in recession.
Shifting the AD curve rightward by $200b
would end the recession.
B. If there is crowding out, will Congress need to increase G more or
less than this amount?
Crowding out reduces the impact of G on AD.
To offset this, Congress should increase G by a larger amount.
 Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Supply
• Most economists believe the short-run effects of
fiscal policy mainly work through agg demand.
• But fiscal policy might also affect agg supply.
• Recall one of the Ten Principles from Chap 1:
People respond to incentives.
• A cut in the tax rate gives workers incentive to work
more, so it might increase the quantity of g&s
supplied and shift AS to the right.
• People who believe this effect is large are called
“Supply-siders.”
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FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Supply
• Govt purchases might affect agg supply. Example:
• Govt increases spending on roads.
• Better roads may increase business productivity, which
increases the quantity of g&s supplied, shifts AS to the right.
• This effect is probably more relevant in the long run:
it takes time to build the new roads and put them into
use.

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 Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy

• Since the Employment Act of 1946, economic stabilization has been a

goal of U.S. policy.
• Economists debate how active a role the govt should take to stabilize
the economy.

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FISCAL POLICY
 The Case for Active Stabilization Policy

• Keynes: “Animal spirits” cause waves of pessimism and optimism

among households and firms, leading to shifts in aggregate demand
and fluctuations in output and employment.
• Also, other factors cause fluctuations, e.g.,
• booms and recessions abroad
• stock market booms and crashes
• If policymakers do nothing, these fluctuations are destabilizing to
businesses, workers, consumers.

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FISCAL POLICY
 The Case for Active Stabilization Policy
• Proponents of active stabilization policy
believe the govt should use policy
to reduce these fluctuations:
• When GDP falls below its natural rate,
use expansionary monetary or fiscal policy
to prevent or reduce a recession.
• When GDP rises above its natural rate,
use contractionary policy to prevent or reduce an inflationary boom.

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 Keynesians in the White House
1961:
John F Kennedy pushed for a
tax cut to stimulate agg demand.
Several of his economic advisors
were followers of Keynes.

2001:
George W Bush pushed for a
tax cut that helped the economy
recover from a recession that
had just begun.
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FISCAL POLICY
 The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy
• Monetary policy affects economy with a long lag:
• Firms make investment plans in advance, so I takes time to respond to
changes in r.
• Most economists believe it takes at least 6 months for mon policy to affect
output and employment.
• Fiscal policy also works with a long lag:
• Changes in G and T require Acts of Congress.
• The legislative process can take months or years.

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FISCAL POLICY
 The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy

• Due to these long lags, critics of active policy argue that such policies
may destabilize the economy rather than help it:
By the time the policies affect agg demand,
the economy’s condition may have changed.
• These critics contend that policymakers should focus on long-run
goals like economic growth and low inflation.

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Automatic Stabilizers
• Automatic stabilizers:
changes in fiscal policy that stimulate
agg demand when economy goes into recession,
without policymakers having to take any deliberate
action

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Automatic Stabilizers: Examples
• The tax system
• In recession, taxes fall automatically (especially from income tax),
which stimulates agg demand.
• Govt spending
• In recession, more people apply for public assistance (welfare, unemployment
insurance).
• Govt spending on these programs automatically rises, which stimulates agg
demand.

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CONCLUSION
• Policymakers need to consider all the effects of their
actions. For example,
• When Congress cuts taxes, it should consider the short-run
effects on agg demand and employment, and the long-run
effects
on saving and growth.
• When the Fed reduces the rate of money growth, it must
take into account not only the long-run effects on inflation
but the short-run effects on output and employment.

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FISCAL POLICY
Summary
• In the theory of liquidity preference,
the interest rate adjusts to balance
the demand for money with the supply of money.
• The interest-rate effect helps explain why the aggregate-
demand curve slopes downward:
an increase in the price level raises money demand,
which raises the interest rate, which reduces investment,
which reduces the aggregate quantity of goods &
services demanded.

107
Summary
• An increase in the money supply causes the interest rate
to fall, which stimulates investment and shifts the
aggregate demand curve rightward.
• Expansionary fiscal policy – a spending increase or tax
cut – shifts aggregate demand to the right.
Contractionary fiscal policy shifts aggregate demand to
the left.

108
Summary
• When the government alters spending or taxes, the
resulting shift in aggregate demand can be larger or
smaller than the fiscal change:
• The multiplier effect tends to amplify the effects of fiscal
policy on aggregate demand.
• The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of
fiscal policy on aggregate demand.

109
Summary
• Economists disagree about how actively policymakers
should try to stabilize the economy.
• Some argue that the government should use
fiscal and monetary policy to combat destabilizing
fluctuations in output and employment.
• Others argue that policy will end up destabilizing the
economy because policies work with long lags.

110
PR lagi
• Kondisi perekonomian negeri Narnia sedang dilanda resesi yang ditandai
oleh pengangguran yang tinggi dan output yang rendah.
• Anda diminta untuk mengilustrasikan situasi tersebut dengan
menggunakan diagram (grafik) permintaan agregat (AD) and penawaran
agregat (AS). (hint: gunakan kurva AD, kurva AS jangka pendek, dan kurva
AS jangka panjang)
• Jelaskan kebijakan operasi pasar terbuka yang dapat mengembalikan
perekonomian ke tingkat alamiahnya (full-employment equilibrium).
• Dengan menggunakan kurva AD, kurva AS jangka pendek, dan kurva AS
jangka panjang, tunjukkan dampak dari operasi pasar terbuka terhadap
output dan tingkat harga. Jelaskan jawaban Anda!