DROUGHT

MANAGEMENT
AND ANALYSIS
OF SURFACE
WATER SUPPLY
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
OPTIONS
 DROUGHTS are associated with sustained periods of significantly lower soil
moisture levels and water supply THAN the normal levels around.

 DROUGHTS have been defined from several viewpoints, including:

Meteorological Definition

Agricultural Def

Hydrologic Def

Economic Def
METEOROLOGICAL
DEFINITION
 Is the time when the actual cumulative moisture falls short.
AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT
 Typically refers to periods
where the soil moisture is
inadequate to initiate and
sustain crop growth
HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT

 Typically refers to periods

below normal streamflow/
depleted reservoir storage
ECONOMIC
DROUGHT
 Concerns the Economic areas of
human activity affected by
drought as a result of physical
processes.
 A VARIETY OF DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
OPTIONS HAVE BEEN UNDERTAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATED SHORTAGES
OF WATER (DZIEGIELEWSKI, ET.AL 1986)

 (1) demand reduction measures;

 (2) efficiency improvements in water supply and distribution system; and
 (3) emergency water supplies
A TOPOLOGY OF DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IS
GIVEN IN TABLE 11.6.1.
FIGURE11.6.1 SHOWS 3 OF THE MUNICIPAL
PRICING OPTIONS COMMONLY USED
 (1)the uniform block rate (average cost pricing) with a service charge;
 (2) an increasing block (tier) rate with minimum allowance; and
 (3) an increasing seasonal block rate with minimum allowance
(GRIFFIN AND STOLL, 1983).
 1. reducing the level and/or altering the time pattern of demand by
metering, leak detection and repair, rate structure changes, regulations on
use (e.g., plumbing codes), education programs, drought contingency
planning;
 2. modifying management of existing water development and supplies by
recycling, reuse, and pressure reduction; and
 3. increasing upstream watershed management and conjunctive use of
ground and surface water
 Figure 11.6.1 Common municipal pricing options.

 (a) Quantity used plus monthly service charge;

 (b) Quantity used plus monthly service charge for minimum amount;

 (c) Quantity used plus monthly service charge for minimum amount.
DROUGHT SEVERITY
 An extreme natural phenomenon which affect human, society, animals,
and environments.
 ALSO, prolonged shortages in water supply
 According to Wilhite (1993), the simplest drought index in widespread use
is the percent of normal precipitation
NRC – NATIONAL RESEARCH
COUNCIL (1986)
 there is not a firm rationale or explanation of the drought mechanism.
2 CATEGORIES OF
DROUGHT SEVERITY
 FORMER
 LATTER
FORMER
 1.PALMER DROUGTH SEVERITY INDEX (PSDI)

-it measures dryness of precipitation and temperature.

-it can also assess past drought event
 LATTER
 1.SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX (SWSI)

Gives forecast of both dry and wet months.

Based on Garen; It is better indicator of water availability than palmer

drought severty index

Explain sa
next next
slide
LATTER
 2. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

-Also gives forecast of both dry and wet months

INDEX NUMERICAL VALUES
AND RANGES
 PSDI CLASSIFICATION

0=
NEAR
NORMAL/
NORMAL -1 MILD DRY
-2 MODERATE
DRY
+4 EXTREMELY -3 SEVERW DRY
WET -4 EXTREME DRY
+3 VERY WET
+2 MODERATE
WET
+1 SLIGHT WET
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF
WATER SHORTAGE
 The general trend of the average demand with the return period may be
shown by the demand curve.
 Agriculture:
Crop
Failures
ECONOMIC ASPECTS
OF WATER SHORTAGE
 Demand increases with return period of the drought
severity because the more severe the drought, the
more the customers are prompted to use more water.
Commercial  Shortage of water supply during drought periods
: Recession results in different types of losses in the economy,
of Business including, but not limited to, agricultural, commercial,
and industrial.

Industrial:
Underproduction
of commodities
DIFFERENT
DEMAND CURVES
FOR DIFFERENT
PRICE LEVELS
 Since water is supplied during a
drought period at a greater price, it
can be viewed as a revenue generator.
ECONOMIC
ASPECTS
OF WATER
Therefore, when the demand exceeds SHORTAGE
the available supply, the revenue
collected by the water supply agency
is less than what could have been
collected had there been more supply
than that actually available.
ECONOMIC ASPECTS Trucking in
Potable
Supplies
OF WATER
SHORTAGE
 Some water shortage relief efforts
can be undertaken so that
emergency water supplies may be
made available to users. This can
be implemented by:
Transporting water
through small diameter
emergency water lines

Water
Drilling
OPTIMIZATION PROCESS
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF
WATER SHORTAGE
 If the option for emergency supply construction is justified, then the design
needs to take into consideration the possibilities of optimization
 The construction can be designed such that the financial risk and the cost
of construction are optimal.
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF
WATER SHORTAGE
The expected annual damage cost
(Ejeta and Mays, 1998)

where:
f(x)dx is the probability that an event of magnitude x will occur in any given year
 D(x) is the damage cost that would result from that event. The event x in this case can be taken as

the demand
 xT can be the available supply during a drought event of return period T.
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF
WATER SHORTAGE
The annual damage cost for a return period T is given as;

To determine the annual expected damage in the above equation, the

damage that results from drought events of different severity levels must be
quantified.
THE
DIVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE
DEMAND AND
THE SUPPLY
INCREASES
WITH THE
RETURN PERIOD
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF
WATER SHORTAGE
Expressing the demand and the supply as a function of return period T of
drought events enables one to estimate the annual expected water supply
shortage volume, as given by the following;

where:
Sv is shortage volume
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE
WATER SUPPLY
Surface-Water Reservoir System
SURFACE-WATER
RESERVOIR
SYSTEM
 Reservoir

 The primary function of reservoir is to

smooth out the variability of surface-
water flow through control and
regulation and make water available
when and where it is needed.
 The use of reservoirs for temporary
storage would result in an
undesirable increase in water loss
through seepage and evaporation.
 Benefits can be derived through
regulating the flow for water
supplies, hydropower generation,
irrigation uses and other activities
that can offset such loses
 SURFACE-WATER
Flood Control
RESERVOIR SYSTEM

RESERVOIR SYSTEM OPERATIONS

2 General Operation Purpose:

Conservation 1. Conservation
2. Flood Control
CONSERVATION
INCLUDES:
-water supply
-low-flow augmentation for water
quality
-recreation
-navigation
-irrigation and
-hydroelectric power
FLOOD
CONTROL

 Is the retention or detention of

water during flood events for the
purpose of reducing downstream
flooding.
 SURFACE-WATER
RESERVOIR
SYSTEM Dead Storage Zone
Mainly required for
Total reservoir storage space
sediment collection,
in a multipurpose reservoir
recreation, or hydropower
3 Major Parts: generation.’
Active Storage
1. Dead Storage Zone Used for conservation
2. Active Storage Zone purposes, including water
supplies, irrigation and
3. Flood Control Storage navigation
Flood Storage Zone
Reserved for storage of
excessive flood volume to
reduce potential
downstream flood
damage
STORAGE FORM YIELD
ANALYSIS
 The determination of storage-yield relationships for a reservoir project is one of the basic
hydrologic analysis associated with the design of reservoirs.

 Two basic problems in storage-yield studies(U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1977) are:
 determination of storage required to supply a specified yield
 determination of yield for a given amount of storage

 The former is usually encountered in the planning and early design phases
of a water resources development study, while the latter often occurs in
the final design phases or in the reevaluation of an existing project for a
more comprehensive analysis.
STORAGE-YIELD ANALYSIS
• Other objectives of storage-yield analysis include:

 the determination of complementary or competitive

aspects of multiple-project development.
 determination of complementary or competitive aspects of
multiple-purpose development in a single project.
 analysis of alternative operation rules for a project or group
of projects.
• The procedures used to develop a storage-yield relationship include:
 simplified analysis
 detailed sequential analysis

• The simplified techniques are satisfactory when the study objectives are
limited to preliminary or feasibility studies.

• Detailed methods that include both simulation and optimization analysis

are usually required when the study objectives advance to the design
phase. The objective of simplified methods is to obtain a reasonably good
estimate of the results, which can be further improved by a detailed
sequential analysis.
• Factors affecting the selection of method for analysis are:
 study requirements
 degrees of accuracy required
 the basic data required and available

• Firm yield is defined as the largest quantity of flow or flow rate that is
dependable at the given site along the stream at all times. More
specifically, Chow, et al. (1988) define the firm yield of a reservoir as the
mean annual withdrawal rate that would lower the reservoir to its
minimum allowable level just once during the critical drought of record.
 The most commonly used
method to determine the
firm yield of an unregulated
river is to construct a flow-
duration curve, which is a
graph of the discharge as a
function of the percent of
time that flow is equaled or
exceeded.
• Surcharge
 excess/overload

• Flood control zone

 This zone temporarily stores
water and delays its release
when flow rates are the highest
• Conservation zone (top buffer)
 the maintaining level/zone of
the water
• Conservation zone (top
inactive)
 alarming level/zone of the water

• Dead storage zone

 shortage
RESERVOIR
SIMULATION
OPERATING RULES
(POLICIES)

Are used to specify how water is

managed in a reservoir and
throughout a reservoir system.
These rules are specified to
achieve system stream-flow
requirements and system
demands in a manner that
maximizes objectives, which may
be expressed in the form of
benefits.
SYSTEM
DEMANDS
 may be expressed as minimum
desired and minimum required
flows to be met at selected
locations in the system.
 In reservoir operation, the benefit
function used should indicate that
shortages cause severe adverse
consequences while surpluses may
enhance benefits only moderately. It
is common practice to define
operating rules in terms of a
minimum yield or target value. If
water supply to all demand points is
rigidly constrained when droughts
occur, it may be impossible to satisfy
all demands
 Rule curves are developed to
provide guidance on what
operational policy is to be
employed at a reservoir or dam
site
THREE BASIC METHODS HAVE BEEN USED IN
PLANNING, DESIGN, AND OPERATION OF
RESERVOIR SYSTEMS

(a)simplified
methods such
(b) simulation; (c)
as
and optimization
nonsequential
analysis;
 The planning and operation of a reservoir
system requires the simulation of these
systems to determine whether demands can
be met for water supply (municipal, industrial,
and/or agricultural users, hydropower,
instream flow maintenance for water quality,
and flood control). For purposes of discussion
here, water uses are considered in two
categories: flood control and conservation,
where conservation use refers to all nonflood
control uses.
THE GENERAL PROCEDURE FOR CONDUCTING A RESERVOIR SYSTEM ANALYSIS FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES USING
SIMULATION INVOLVES:

 1. identifying the system;

 2. determining the study objectives and specifying the criteria used to measure the objectives;
 3. examining the availability of the system data;
 4. formulating a model that is mathematically and quantitatively representative of the
system’s components hydrology, and operating criteria;
 5. validating the model;
 6. organizing and solving the model; and
 7. analyzing and evaluating the results according to how well they achieve the objectives of
the study.