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Determinants of
Interest Rates
Interest Rate Fundamentals
V V Time
0 N
Present value
Discounting: $X/(1+r)N
Relation between Interest Rates
and Present and Future Values
Present
Value
(PV)
Future
Value
(FV)
Interest Rate
Interest Rate
Real Riskless Interest Rates
P* =$850 i* = 17.6%
$800 25.0%
S1
Quantity of Bonds, B
Factors that Affect the Supply of
and Demand for Loanable Funds
for a Financial Security
Determinants of Interest Rates
for Individual Securities
ij* = f(IP, RFR, DRPj, LRPj, SCPj, MPj)
First two factors are common to all
financial securities (i.e. risk-free interest
rate), while the others can be unique to
each individual security
Inflation (IP): IP = [(CPIt+1 – CPIt)/CPIt] x 100
Real interest rate (R) and Fisher effect:
R = i – Expected (IP)
Determinants of Interest Rates
for Individual Securities
Sl
Sm Dm
Ss DS
Years to maturity
Liquidity Preference Theory
Key assumption: bonds of different maturities
are substitutes, but are not perfect substitutes
Implication: modifies pure expectations theory
with features of market segmentation theory
Investors prefer short rather than long bonds →
must be paid a risk (liquidity) premium, LN, to
hold long-term bonds
Results in following modification: long-term
interest rates will be averages of the expected
short-term rates plus a positive term premium
(1+RNt)=[(1+R1t)(1+f2)(1+f3)… (1+N-1fN)]1/N + LN
PUET vs. LPT