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Initial demand forecast ( made well before observing any sale) stages:-
First stage involved deriving Aggregate demand forecast i.e., demand for all
SKUs put together was forecasted.
In the second stage, different SKUs were ranked according to the likely demand
and all these ranks were later on combined with aggregate forecasts to derive
SKU level forecasts.
Aggregate demand forecast:
It was based on two sets of calculations- Distribution side and category side
Distribution side- was based on deriving sales forecast for each store. It was
derived by ‘Market Management System” (MMS). Historical sales data, growth
rates, seasonality, competitors’ action, and changes in macro-economic
conditions were taken into account to forecast sales growth at sore level.
To forecast demand for a new store or a future store, company used data such as
the foot traffic generated by various locations, target customers who shopped at
those locations and competitive brands already offered at the location.
Category side was based on aggregate demand forecast for each category. To
derive forecast for each category, product features such as the weight of the
fabric, whether the garment was knit or woven and the use of particular
fabrics and specific trims were considered.
Hence, aggregate forecast for category sales across the chain for entire period
(based on distribution side forecast) is
($200,000/ chain/ period*110 stores/ chain) = 220,000 units
$100/ unit
b) Category Side Forecast
Aggregate (chain level) demand forecast for category - 45,000 units per
week.
Duration of sales period - 4 weeks
Hence aggregate forecast for category sales across the chain for entire period
(based on category side forecast) is
45,000 units/weeks* 4 weeks = 180,000 units
Q6)Explain the Obermeyer Method used at World for SKU level
forecasts.