Hypothesis Testing

An example…
Suppose that we want to compare the
crime rate in San Diego with the crime
rate in the rest of the country.
 Is there more or less crime in San Diego
than the national average?
An example…
 First, we start with the hypothesis that the
crime rate on average in San Diego is the
same as the national average.
 To test our hypothesis, we ask what
sample means would occur if many
samples of the same size were drawn at
random from our population if our
hypothesis is true.
An example…
 We can now refer to the sampling
distribution of the mean, for an infinite
series of samples of size n, drawn from a
population whose mean is the same as the
national average, and we compare our
sample mean with those in this sampling
distribution.
 If our hypothesis is true, then the
distribution of sample means will be
centered about the national average.
An example…
 Suppose that the relationship between our
sample mean and those of the sampling
distribution of the mean looks like this…
An example…
 If so, our sample mean is one that could
reasonably occur if the hypothesis is true,
and we will retain our hypothesis as one
that could be true. (The crime rate of San
Diego is the same as the national average.)
An example…
 On the other hand, if the relationship
between our sample mean and those of
the sampling distribution of the mean looks
like this…
An example…
 Our sample mean is so deviant that it
would be quite unusual to obtain such a
value when our hypothesis is true. In this
case, we would reject our hypothesis and
conclude that it is more likely that the
crime rate of San Diego is not the same as
the national average.
 The population represented by the sample
differs significantly from the comparison
population.
Null Hypothesis
The hypothesis that we put to the test
is called the null hypothesis, symbolized
H0.
The null hypothesis usually states the
situation in which there is no difference
(the difference is “null”) between
populations.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, symbolized
HA, is the opposite of the null
hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis is also
identified as the research hypothesis, or
the “hunch” that the investigator wants
to test.
Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
Both H0 and HA are statements about
population parameters, not sample statistics.
A decision to retain the null hypothesis
implies a lack of support for the alternative
hypothesis.
A decision to reject the null hypothesis
implies support for the alternative hypothesis.
When do we retain and when do we
reject the null hypothesis?

When we draw a random sample from a

population, our obtained value of the sample
mean will almost never exactly equal the
mean of our population.
The decision to reject or retain the null
hypothesis depends on the selected criterion
for distinguishing between those sample
means that would be common and those that
would be rare if H0 was true.
When do we retain and when do we
reject the null hypothesis?

If the sample mean is so different from

what is expected when H0 is true that
its appearance would be unlikely, H0
should be rejected.
But what degree of rarity of occurrence
is so great that it seems better to reject
the null hypothesis than to retain it?
When do we retain and when do we
reject the null hypothesis?

This decision is somewhat arbitrary, but

common research practice is to reject
H0 if the sample mean is so deviant that
its probability of occurrence in random
sampling is .05 or less.
Such a criterion is called the level of
significance, symbolized .
Rejection Regions
For our purposes, we will adopt the .05 level of
significance.
Therefore, we will reject H0 only if our obtained
sample mean is so deviant that it falls in the upper
2.5% or lower 2.5% of all the possible sample means
that would occur when H0 is true.
 The portions of the sampling distribution that include the
values of the mean that lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis are called rejection regions.
If our sample mean falls in the middle 95% of the
distribution of all possible values of the mean that
could occur when H0 is true, we will retain the null
hypothesis.
What sample means would
occur if H0 is true?
If it is true, the sampling distribution of
the mean would center on the
hypothesized population mean.
If we assume that the sampling
distribution of the mean approximates a
normal curve (and we can, if our
sample size satisfies the central limit
theorem)…
Critical Values
We can use the normal curve table to calculate the Z
values, called critical values, that separate the upper
2.5% and lower 2.5% of sample means from the
remainder.
An example…
Suppose our obtained sample mean of the
crime rate in San Diego is a score of 90.
Suppose that the national average is known
to be 85, with a standard deviation of 20.
Even if the population mean really is a score
of 85, because of random sampling variation
we do not expect the mean of a sample
randomly drawn from a population to be
exactly 85 (although it could be).
Using the Sampling Distribution of
the Mean to Determine Probability

The important question is what is the

relative position of the obtained sample
mean among all those that could have
been obtained if the hypothesis is true?
To determine the position of the
obtained sample mean, it must be
expressed as a Z score.
Z score
Before, you were finding the Z score of
a single individual on a distribution of a
population of individuals.
In hypothesis testing, you are finding a
Z score of your sample’s mean on a
distribution of means.
Z Score Formulas
The method of changing the sample’s mean to a Z
score is the same as changing an individual’s score to
a Z score.
In general :
score - mean of scores
Z
standard deviation of scores
To locate a raw score within a sample :
XX score - sample mean
Z 
S sample standard deviation
To locate a raw score within a population :
X  score - population mean
Z 
 population standard deviation
To locate a sample mean withi n a sampling distributi on :
X  X sample mean - mean of sampling distributi on
Z 
X standard error of the mean
An example…
In our study,
obtained sample mean  hypothesiz ed population mean (when Ho is true )
Z
standard error of the mean
90  85 5
Z   2.5
20 2
100
An example…
Our sample mean is 2.5 standard errors
of the mean greater than expected if
the null hypothesis were true.
The value of 2.5 falls in the rejection
region, so we reject H0 and retain HA.
We can conclude that the mean of the
population from which the sample came
from is not 85.
An example…
The crime rate of San Diego is, on
average, different from (greater than)
other cities of the country.
Notice that the conclusion is about the
population represented by the sample
under study and not simply the
particular sample itself.
What if we had used  = .01?
Our sample mean, and our Z value would still be the same, but
the critical values of Z that separate the regions of rejection
would be different,  2.58.
This is a more conservative value (it is harder to reject the null
hypothesis).
Your decision depends on your criterion.

Using an alpha
level of .01, you
would fail to reject
the null
hypothesis.
If we retain H0, what can we
conclude?
The decision to retain H0 does not mean
that it is likely that H0 is true.
Rather, this decision reflects the fact
that we do not have sufficient evidence
to reject the null hypothesis.
Certain other hypotheses would also
have been retained if tested in the
same way.
If we retain H0, what can we
conclude?
Consider our example where the hypothesized population mean
is 85.
If we had obtained a sample mean of 86, the null hypothesis
would have been retained.
But suppose the hypothesized population mean was 87.
If we had obtained a sample mean of 86, the null hypothesis
would also have been retained.
Strength of Decision
Rejecting the null hypothesis means
that H0 is probably false, a strong
decision.
Retaining the null hypothesis is a weak
decision.
Two-tailed Test
The alternative hypothesis states that the population
parameter may be either less than or greater than
the value stated in H0.
 The critical region is divided between both tails of the
sampling distribution.
Two-tailed Test
This type of test is desirable in most
research situations.
 For example, in most cases in which the
performance of a group is compared to a
known standard, it would be of interest to
discover that the group is superior or
inferior.
One-tailed Test
The alternative hypothesis states that
the population parameter differs from
the value stated in H0 in one particular
direction.
 The critical region is located only in one tail
of the sampling distribution.
One-tailed Test
Upper-tail Critical Lower-tail Critical
One-tailed Test
The advantage of a one-tailed test is that it is
more sensitive to detecting a false hypothesis
in the direction of concern than a two-tailed
test.
The major disadvantage of a one-tailed test is
that it precludes any chance of discovering
that reality is just the opposite of what the
alternative hypothesis says.
Steps of the Hypothesis Test
1. State the research question.
2. State the statistical hypothesis.
3. Set decision rule.
4. Calculate the test statistic.
5. Decide if result is significant.
6. Interpret result as it relates to your
research question.
An example…
Robins and John (1997) carried out a study on narcissism (self-
love), comparing people who had scored high versus low on a
narcissism questionnaire. (An example item was “If I ruled the
world it would be a better place.”) They also had other
questionnaires, including one that had an item about how many
times the participant looked in the mirror on a typical day. They
hypothesize that people who scored high on the narcissism
scale look in the mirror significantly more often than people who
did not score high on the scale. Based on previous research, it
is known that, on average, a person looks in the mirror 4.8
times per day, with a standard deviation of 2.6. Taking a
sample of 25 narcissistic individuals, they find a mean of 6.3
visits to the mirror per day. Using the .05 level of significance,
and assuming the distribution approximates a normal curve,
what should the researchers conclude?
An example…
State the research question:
 Do individuals, who score high on a
narcissistic scale, look at themselves in the
mirror significantly more often than
individuals who are not narcissistic?
State the statistical hypothesis:
H 0 :   4.8
H A :   4.8
Statistical Hypotheses
Two-tailed Test H :   X
0

HA :  X
One-Tailed Test
 Lower-tailed H0 :   X
HA :  X
 Upper-tailed H0 :   X
HA :  X
An example…
Set decision rule:
  .05
Z crit  1.65
An example…
Calculate the test statistic:
  4.8,   2.6, n  25
X   hyp
Z
X
6.3  4.8
Z  2.88
2.6
25
An example…
Decide if results are significant:
 Reject H0, 2.88 > 1.65.
Interpret results as it relates to the statistical
hypothesis:
 Narcissistic individuals look in the mirror significantly more
often than individuals who are not narcissistic.
Another example…
A psychologist is working with people who have had a particular
type of major surgery. The psychologist proposes that people
will recover from the operation more quickly if friends and
family are in the room with them for the first 48 hours after the
operation (based on several other studies on social support),
but acknowledges that the presence of friends and family may
also slow recovery time, due to the added activity and possible
stress associated with visitors. It is known that time to recover
from this kind of surgery is normally distributed with a mean of
12 days and a standard deviation of 5 days. The procedure of
having friends and family in the room for the period after the
surgery is done with 9 randomly selected patients. The patients
recover in an average of 8 days. Using the .01 level of
significance, what should the researcher conclude?
Another example…
State the research hypothesis:
Do patients who have friends and family with them following
surgery recover more or less quickly than people who do not?
State the statistical hypothesis: H o :   12
Set decision rule: Z  2.58 crit
H A :   12

Calculate the test statistic: 8  12

Z  2.40
Decide if results are significant: 5
Retain H0, -2.40>- 2.58 9

Interpret results as it relates to the statistical

hypothesis: Patients who have friends and family with them
following surgery do not recover significantly faster, or
slower, than patients who do not have social support.