TVELFTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

ON MARINE SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGIES

Dedicated to the 40th Anniversary of the
Faculty of Shipbuilding of the TU-Varna

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF
PROGRESSIVE FLOODING TROUGH
NON-WATERTIGHT SHIP OPENINGS
P. Georgiev, L.Naydenov
Technical University of Varna, Bulgaria

Varna, 25 September, 2014

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 Outline

 INTRODUCTION
 STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
 METAMODELS AND RANDOM VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTION
 CALCULATED EXAMPLE
 CONCLUSIONS

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IMPLEMENATTION OF METAMODELS (SURROGARES)

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 PROGRESSIVE FLOODING TROUGH NON-WATERTIGHT
SHIP OPENINGS

Equation of the WL
xtg  ytg  z  d mid  0
Distance from a point to the WL
x0tg  y0tg  z0  d mid
h
tg   tg   1
2 2

A failure event - described by the limit state function

F  h(x)  0
x1 – Displacement;
x  ( x1 , x2 , x3 ) x2 - LCG
x3 - VCG
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 RELIABILITY ANALYSES
n
g (x)  a0   ai xi Linear limit state function
i 1
n
M  a0   ai X i Linear safety margin
i 1

The probability of failure can be written as:

PF  Pg (X)  0  P(M  0)

PF  ( ) where  is the so-called

reliability index given as

M

M
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 METAMODELS AND RANDOM VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTION

Response surface of tg = f(x1,x2); x3=0 Response surface of tg= f(x1,x2);x3 = 0

x0tg  y0tg  z0  d mid
h
tg 2  tg 2  1
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 METAMODELS AND RANDOM VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTION

Statistical data for a

container carrier for time
and corresponding
draughts
for 12689 hours i.e. 528
days.

Goodness of fit according to Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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 RANDOM VARIABLES
DISTRIBUTION
Sample with 70000 values generated by
EasyFit software – truncated to
63989
Correlation matrix
x1 x2 x3
x1 1
x2 -0.43782 1
x3 0.642631 -0.28394 1

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 FORM algorithm using spreadsheet proposed
by Low & Tank
Algorithm for correlated non-normal random variables.

  min nT R 1n
xF
where n is a column vector of ni and,

xi  F 1 (ni ) 40 Years Faculty of Shipbuilding of TU-Varna 9

 CALCULATRED EXAMPLE
P1 P2

0.016
P1,Y=6.630 m
P1,Y=7.935 m
P2,Y=6.630 m
Prob. of immersion, -

0.012
P2,Y=7.935 m

0.008

0.004

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Height above deck, m
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 CONCLUSIONS
• The progressive flooding trough the opening (air pipe,
ventilation etc.) is considered as a set of realizations of the
limit state function.

• An approach that combines the metamodels and basis of

structural reliability analysis was used in damage stability
analyses

• The explicit representation of the characteristics of flooded

condition for given damage scenario in relation to the initial
voyage characteristics is obtained by metamodels

• PDF’s of voyage parameters are based on statistical data for

a container carrier

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 CONCLUSIONS

• The obtained results by Long&Tank algorithm fully

coincide with the theory.

• The proposed approach could be used in evaluation of

alternative design solutions based on the probability for
some hazards during the flooding.

• Future investigations are connected with accumulating

more statistical data and knowledge about the pdf of
voyage characteristics during the live cycle of the ship.

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Tank you for your attention!

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