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MENAP Presentation
MENAP Presentation
Economic
Outlook
Middle East , North Africa ,
Afghanistan & Pakistan
(MENAP)
Presented to:
Professor DR. Ghulam Saghir
Presented by:
SABA WAHEED(L1F18MBAM0187)
LARIAB NADEEM(L1F18MBAM0236)
AMNA TAHIR (L1F18MBAM0176)
AQSA RANA (L1F18MBAM0247)
Global Developments :Implications
• This year projected slow 3.3% because prospects for growth
have deteriorated over the past year & forecast for 2019 is over
half a percentage lower than projected one year ago
• Weaker external demand, particularly from key trading partners
represents a key challenge to countries across the middle east &
central Asia
• The decline in oil prices will also adversely impact oil-exporting
countries.
• Lower prices will impact output & fiscal position which is
another common challenge for countries across the region
particularly for oil exporters (A,B,O)
Evolution of Oil Prices
Exposure to External Risks
• Trade tension between US and China may continue at length.
• Elevated oil price volatility may continue in uncertain global environment.
• Global Financial conditions have eased recently but are likely to remain volatile
& market sentiment could change abruptly
• Geopolitical risks are high
• In MENAP oil exporters procyclical fiscal policies have proved less supportive of
growth , underscoring economic weaknesses
• In MENAP oil importers public debt burdens have increased significantly over
past decade raising near-term vulnerabilities & limiting policy options to
address persistent structural weakness.
MENAP OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES: Impact of
Lower & more Volatile Oil Prices
• Growth in oil exporters of MENAP region is projected to remain
subdued relative to 2018 amid lower oil prices, restrained oil
production & slowing global growth
• Oil prices turned highly volatile in the end of last year
• Renewed oil prices volatility reflects supply disruptions , global
growth concerns technological changes & geopolitical
uncertainties .
MODERATE GROWTH:
• Regional uncertainty ( Afghanistan, Jordan , Lebanon , Syria) security concerns, weaker the public
investment & large external imbalances (Lebanon, Pakistan, Sudan) are expected to weigh on the
medium-term growth outlook
Lower Oil Prices Help But External
Vulnerabilities Persist
• The regional current account deficit is expected to decline from
6.5% of GDP in 2018 to 5.9% & 5.2% in 2019 & respectively in
2020 as lower oil prices help improve oil importers terms of trade
• Many countries have large foreign currency debt ($27 billion) set for the next
two year will slow the growth rate prospects & financial market volatility
• Immediate pressure on financial flows has been serve in the recent months
& global financial conditions remain uncertain
• Countries should improve the
efficiency of public spending
by rationalization recurrent
expenditure to make space for
capital & social spending