GROWING CHINA, IS IT THE

NEXT SUPER POWER – A

CONCERN FOR INDIA

BY PROF ANIL KAMBOJ

INSPECTOR GENERAL RETD
SUPERPOWER
A superpower is defined as a country that has global
influence over others in cultural, technological,
military and political spheres, and China is emerging
as a strong contender for the position. While the US
has been the world’s superpower for decades,
escalating political tension between the US and China
which leads many to wonder: Is China the Next
Superpower?
 STRATEGY
 Both US and China are economically strongest countries and that makes the leaders
strong.
 Xi Zinping policies are long term and initially looks attractive and beneficiary for
both the countries
 President Donald Trump’s policies are only ‘for Americans’ based.
 Chinese loans are collateralized by strategically important natural assets with high
long-term value
 Hambantota, for example, straddles Indian Ocean trade routes
 In exchange for financing and building the infrastructure that poorer countries need
 China demands favourable access to their natural assets, from mineral resources to
ports
 STRATEGY
 Sri Lanka, unable to pay the onerous debt to China it has accumulated, formally
handed over its strategically located Hambantota port to the Asian giant.
 It was a major acquisition for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
 Proof of just how effective China’s debt-trap diplomacy
 China provides huge project-related loans at market-based rates, without
transparency
 With the BRI, China is aiming to define “its own rules and norms”.
 China has encouraged its companies to bid for outright purchase of strategic ports,
where possible
 The Mediterranean port of Piraeus, which a Chinese firm acquired for $436 million
from cash-strapped Greece
 Will serve as the BRI’s “dragon head” in Europe.
 STRATEGY
 First, it wants to address overcapacity at home by boosting exports
 Second, hopes to advance its strategic interests, including expanding its diplomatic
influence
 By securing natural resources, promoting the international use of its currency, and
gaining a relative advantage over other powers.
 China is now establishing its own Hong Kong-style neo-colonial arrangements
starting with Hambantota
 Xi’s promise of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” is inextricable from
the erosion of smaller states’ sovereignty
 China chooses its projects according to their long-term strategic value
 they may yield short-term returns that are insufficient for countries to repay their
debts
 This gives Xi Zinping an extra leverage to force borrowers to swap debt for equity,
thereby expanding China’s global dominance
 STRATEGY
 A 99-year lease on Australia’s deep-water port of Darwin for $388 million
 Trapped in a debt crisis, Djibouti had no choice but to lease land to China for $20
million per year
 Its leverage over Turkmenistan to secure natural gas by pipeline largely on Chinese
terms
 Kenya’s crushing debt to China now threatens to turn its busy port of Mombasa—the
gateway to East Africa
 Countries, from Argentina to Namibia to Laos, have been ensnared in a Chinese
debt trap, forcing them to confront agonizing choices to stave off default
 States caught in debt bondage to China risk losing both their most valuable natural
assets and their very sovereignty
 A deep-rooted strategy that Xi Zinping is playing is very dangerous, like serpent
 SRATEGY
 Leaders in many countries have been bribed by Chinese companies like Nigeria, ,
the husband of former Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, former
President Abdulla Yameen of corruption in leasing out islands Feydhoo Finolhu,
former President of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa
 Can this be China bribing its way to superpower status?
 As China pushes its ambitious trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative
 India’s smaller neighbours are especially vulnerable
 India can partner with other countries like Japan and the US to take up
infrastructure projects in these countries
 Often, the labour and the input materials in these projects are also sourced from
China
 The investment flow is dictated by political rather than market choices
 The result is a host country saddled with white elephants not generating enough
capital to pay back the loans
 STRATEGY
 One of the surest signs of the emergence of a global superpower is its ability and
willingness to intervene in other states’ domestic politics.
 Its role in the removal of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, China was aware of the
Zimbabwean army’s plans to oust Mugabe, as General Constantino Chiwenga

 ECONOMICALY GROWTH
 In 1980, China and India were not even among the 45 largest economies of the
world.
 In 2016, at $11.2 trillion, China’s GDP was second only to the US ($18.6 trillion)
and at $2.3 trillion, India’s GDP was the seventh largest in the world
 Though its per capita income continues to be a fraction of all four.
 China and Latin America shot up from almost nothing to more than $200bn by
2014.
 Latin America’s exports to China increased by around 30%
 China is the largest trading partner of Chile, Peru, Argentina and of Brazil.
 The biggest changes are in Chinese investment and lending
 . Chinese companies have invested at least $21bn on Brazilian deals last year.
 Chinese loans to Latin America totalled $9bn in 2018.
 ECONOMICALY
 From Latin America’s viewpoint, the relationship is “really about the money” and
fear economic dependence
 . Panama is the only country in the region to have signed a belt-and-road
agreement.
 In a few years, if China has a military confrontation in the South China Sea, for
example, some Latin American countries might feel obliged to back their new
patron.
 China’s influence is growing by the day.
CHANGING THE WORLD POLITICAL
ORDER
 BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
 China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (一带一路) is an ambitious programme to
connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks along six
corridors with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and
stimulating economic growth.
 The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global development strategy adopted by
the Chinese government involving infrastructure development and investments in
152 countries and international organizations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle
East, and the Americas. "Belt" refers to the overland routes for road and rail
transportation, called "the Silk Road Economic Belt"; whereas "road" refers to
the sea routes, or the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
 The Chinese government calls the initiative "a bid to enhance regional connectivity
and embrace a brighter future". Some observers see it as a push for Chinese
dominance in global affairs with a China-centered trading network. The project has
a targeted completion date of 2049, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of
the People's Republic of China.
 The initiative was unveiled by Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping in September
and October 2013 during visits to Kazakhstan and Indonesia,[9] and was thereafter
promoted by Premier Li Keqiang during state visits to Asia and Europe.
 Already, some estimates list the Belt and Road Initiative as one of the largest
infrastructure and investment projects in history, covering more than 68 countries,
including 65% of the world's population and 40% of the global gross domestic
product as of 2017
 BRI
 The Belt and Road Initiative addresses an "infrastructure gap" and thus has
potential to accelerate economic growth across the Asia
Pacific area, Africa and Central and Eastern Europe: a report from the World
Pensions Council (WPC) estimates that Asia, excluding China, requires up to US$900
billion of infrastructure investments per year over the next decade
 In March 2014, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang called for accelerating the Belt and
Road Initiative along with the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar Economic
Corridor[19] and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor in his government work
report presented to the annual meeting of the country's legislature.
 CPEC
 The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, and was opened in 1979
 The Karakoram highway via the Kunjerab Pass connects China and Pakistan, through
Jammu and Kashmir
 In 1963, under the Sino-Pakistan ‘boundary agreement’, Pakistan unilaterally and
illegally ceded chunk of Gilgit and Baltistan (5,180 sq km) to China
 With CPEC, Kashmir could become an international issue
 Raises security concerns for India
 Pakistan has reportedly decided to raise a special security division, specially
trained for counter-terrorism
 The Northern Areas remain one of the most neglected and poorest parts
 What is planned is a major expansion of the Karakoram Highway, establishment of
industrial parks in special economic zones
 Both Pakistan and China have disregarded India’s objections to the alteration of the
status of PoK
 CHINESE ACTIONS THAT UPSET INDIA
 Firstly, China’s continuous shielding of Pakistan and Pakistan-backed
terrorism against India
 Secondly, China’s position vis-a-vis India’s application to the exclusive
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that sets the rules for global nuclear
commerce too has not been accommodative
 Building CPEC inspite of India’s concern
 CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR
 China has geographic handicap; no access to southern world oceans
 Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa must travel all the way around
India, Malacca and ASEAN
 For its economic progress China wants to have market where it can approach by
shortest, fastest means and the transportation is easy and cheap
 This concept was the named as China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
 A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in
Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea
 Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and hydro power plants across Pakistan
 This made Pakistan a “very important Friend” of China
 Why CPEC is so important for China?
 Firstly, Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the Strait of
Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes
 Secondly, it has proximity to Africa; China has invested billions of dollars in Africa,
it buys natural resources
 Thirdly, Pakistan is a flourishing market for China
 Fourthly, it would have proximity to Sri Lanka where it plans to have a naval base
 If USA/UK (control Malacca strait- Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to
choke it, China will have no problem as it has CPEC
 That depends on PoK, which China would like to be continued to be occupied by
Pakistan
 China has already invested close to 50 Billion Dollars in Pakistan
 Why CPEC is so important for China?
 20% of Pakistan's GDP is now Chinese
 China has Pakistan now in its firm grip, so much so that Pakistan can now be called
as China's 24th province
 Would suppress any attack on Pakistan, they own it now
 All India’s moves to isolate Pakistan internationally, has been countered by China
 Resulting, it has also intensified its attempts to infiltrate terrorists from across
the border
Geo-Political Game in the Region
Pakistan gets protection and Chinese their economic corridor
and business
China is not doing business with Pakistan but it is running its
business in Pakistan
China will like that Pakistan to keep India Engaged in its
Proxy war
It is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning
China does not want to confront India directly so keeping
Pak in front
Economically, large amount of the country’s resources is
diverted towards security
 We face is two-fold Challenge:
 Firstly, is the emergence of a new order in the Asia-Pacific
 Secondly, structural adjustment in the Chinese and, therefore, the world
economy
 Both have major implications for India-China relations and India’s prospects
 China wants to be dominant power-- but Australia, Japan, India joined hands
 Russia now works politically with China
 Their coordination in Central Asia, Afghanistan and elsewhere
 Eurasian consolidation, expressed in the One-Belt-One-Road concept
STRATEGY TO BE ADOPTED BY INDIA
 India must act tough now with both China and Pakistan
 India to develop roads and area in Arunachal Pradesh and J&K
 India’s Aggressive Foreign Policy and Diplomacy to counter China
 THANK YOU
 Patanjali


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