PAYING BACK: DIVIDEND

POLICY
To Pay or Not to Pay?
Before deciding to pay the dividends or repurchase shares,
the manager asks a series of questions
 Is the business generating enough positive free cash flow
after making all investments with positive NPVs?
 Is the firm’s Debt ratio Prudent?
 Are the company’s holding of cash a sufficient cushion for
unexpected setbacks and a sufficient war chest for
unexpected opportunities?
 Measures of Dividend Policy
3

• Dividend Payout = Dividends/ Net Income

• Measures the percentage of earnings that the company
pays in dividends
• If the net income is negative, the payout ratio cannot be
computed.
• Dividend Yield = Dividends per share/ Stock
price
• Measures the return that an investor can make from
dividends alone
• Becomes part of the expected return on the investment.
Highest dividend paying stocks
 5

Stocks with high Dividend Yield

Facts about Payout
• Cash Dividend versus Stock Repurchase
• Cash Dividend
• Dividends are rarely cut back, managers do not increase dividends
unless confident that dividend can be maintained

• Stock Repurchase or Buyback

• Repurchases are more flexible and repurchases are tax-advantaged
Facts about Payout
• Dividend Payments
• Cash Dividend
• Payment of cash by firm to shareholders
• Ex-Dividend Date
• Date that determines when stockholder is entitled to dividend payment
• Record Date
• Person who owns stock on this date receives dividend
NTPC’s Dividend
• Declaration Date
19/01/2018 • NTPC declares dividend of Rs. 2.73 per share

• Ex Dividend date
6/2/2018 • Share start to trade Ex-Dividend

• Record Date
• Dividend will be paid to shareholders registered till this
8/2/2018 date

• Payment Date
15/2/2018 • Dividend will be credited to shareholder
Empirical evidence about Cash Dividends
• Dividends are Sticky
• Dividends tend to follow earnings
• Dividends tend to follow smoother path than earnings
• Dividends follow life cycle
 Figure 21.7: Life Cycle Analysis of Dividend Policy

Revenues
$ Revenues /
Earnings

Earnings

Years

External funding High, but High, relative Moderates , relative Low, as projects dry
Low, as projects dry
needs cons trained by to firm value. to firm value. up.
up.
infras tructure

Internal financing Negative or Negative or Low, relative to High, relative to More than funding needs
low low funding needs funding needs

Capacity to pay None None Very low Increasing High

dividends

Growth stage Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Years

Start-up Rapid Expansion High Growth Mature Growth Decline

Source :A Damodaran
Dividend Policy
Survey 2004
Information Content of Dividend and
Repurchases
• Payout Decision
• Managers are reluctant to make dividend changes that
may be reversed

• Managers worry about rescinding dividend increases

and raising new funds to maintain payout
Information Content of Dividend and
Repurchases
• Payout Decision
• To avoid risk of reduction in payout, managers “smooth” dividends

• Dividend changes follow shifts in long-run sustainable earnings

• Transitory earnings changes unlikely to affect dividend payouts

Information Content of Dividend and
Repurchases
• Payout Decisions
• Managers focus on dividend changes over absolute levels

• Paying a dividend of Rs.2.00 per share is important if last year's

dividend was Rs.1.50

• Paying a dividend of Rs.2.00 is not important if last year's dividend

was Rs.2.00
The Dividend Decision
• How Companies Decide on Dividend Payments
• How does the Board of Directors decide what type of dividend to
declare?
• To help answer this question, John Lintner conducted a series of
interviews with managers about their firm’s dividend policy.
• He developed five “stylized facts” which describe how dividends
are determined.
Lintner Model
1. The primary determinants of changes' in dividends paid out
were the most recent earnings and the past dividends paid
2. Management focused on the change in the dividends rather
than the amount
3. Changes were made only when management felt secure
that the new level of dividends could be maintained and
firms very reluctantly cut or eliminated dividends
4. There was propensity to move toward some target payout
ratio for most firms, but the speed of adjustment toward the
level differed greatly among companies
5. Investment requirements generally had little effect on
dividend behaviour.
Information Content of Dividend and
Repurchases
• Information in Payouts
• Varying attitudes toward dividend targets

• DIV1 = target dividend

= target ratio × EPS1
• Dividend change

• DIV1 – DIV0 = target change

= target ratio × EPS1 – DIV0
• Thus, if circumstances would warrant a large increase in dividends,
managers will move only partway towards their target payout.
• They will wait to see if the earnings increase is permanent before the
dividend is fully adjusted.
Facts about Payout
• Dividend Payments
• Stock Dividend
• Distribution of additional shares to firm’s stockholders

• Stock Splits
• Issue of additional shares to firm’s stockholders

• Buyback
• Firm buys back stock from its shareholders
Stock Split
• Stock splits are akin to optical illusions – they give the
impression that things have changed. In reality, splits are
only adjustments in the number of shares outstanding,
while the company's equity and the value of shareholders'
holdings remain unchanged.
• Although most investors view stock splits as inherently
bullish, do not be swayed by this fact alone. The effects of
stocks splits are only temporary in nature. Ultimately, the
company's business fundamentals will be the true drivers
of the stock's value and its future direction.
What's the Point of a Stock Split?
• Psychology:: Splitting the stock brings the share price
down to a more "attractive" level. The effect here is purely
psychological
• Increase Liquidity
Three Schools Of Thought On Dividends

1. If there are no tax disadvantages associated with dividends &

companies can issue stock, at no issuance cost, to raise equity,
whenever needed
Dividends do not matter, and dividend policy does not affect value.
2. If dividends create a tax disadvantage for investors (relative to
capital gains)
Dividends are bad, and increasing dividends will reduce value
3. If dividends create a tax advantage for investors (relative to
capital gains) and/or stockholders like dividends
Dividends are good, and increasing dividends will increase value
 The balanced viewpoint
22

• If a company has excess cash, and few good investment

opportunities (NPV>0), returning money to stockholders
(dividends or stock repurchases) is good.
• If a company does not have excess cash, and/or has
several good investment opportunities (NPV>0), returning
money to stockholders (dividends or stock repurchases)
is bad.
 The Dividends don’t matter school
The Miller Modigliani Hypothesis
23

 The Miller-Modigliani Hypothesis: Dividends do not affect value

 Basis:
 If a firm's investment policies (and hence cash flows) don't change, the
value of the firm cannot change as it changes dividends.
 If a firm pays more in dividends, it will have to issue new equity to fund
the same projects. By doing so, it will reduce expected price
appreciation on the stock but it will be offset by a higher dividend yield.
 If we ignore personal taxes, investors have to be indifferent to receiving
either dividends or capital gains.
 Underlying Assumptions:
(a) There are no tax differences to investors between dividends and capital
gains.
(b) If companies pay too much in cash, they can issue new stock, with no
flotation costs or signaling consequences, to replace this cash.
(c) If companies pay too little in dividends, they do not use the excess cash
for bad projects or acquisitions.
 Taxes and Dividends: What do investors in your
stock think about dividends? Clues on the ex-
24 dividend day!
• Assume that you are the owner of a stock that is approaching an ex-
dividend day and you know that dollar dividend with certainty. In
addition, assume that you have owned the stock for several years.

Initial buy Pb Pa
At P
Ex-dividend day
Dividend = D
P = Price at which you bought the stock a “while” back
Pb= Price before the stock goes ex-dividend
Pa=Price after the stock goes ex-dividend
D = Dividends declared on stock
to, tcg = Taxes paid on ordinary income and capital gains respectively
 Cashflows from Selling around Ex-
Dividend Day
25

 The cash flows from selling before ex-dividend day are:

Pb - (Pb - P) tcg
 The cash flows from selling after ex-dividend day are:
Pa - (Pa - P) tcg + D(1-to)
 Since the average investor should be indifferent
between selling before the ex-dividend day and selling
after the ex-dividend day -
Pb - (Pb - P) tcg = Pa - (Pa - P) tcg + D(1-to)
 Some basic algebra leads us to the following:

Pb - Pa 1- t o
=
D 1- t cg
 Intuitive Implications
26

• The relationship between the price change on the ex-

dividend day and the dollar dividend will be determined
by the difference between the tax rate on dividends and
the tax rate on capital gains for the typical investor in the
stock.
Tax Rates Ex-dividend day behavior
If dividends and capital gains are Price change = Dividend
taxed equally
If dividends are taxed at a higher Price change < Dividend
rate than capital gains
If dividends are taxed at a lower Price change > Dividend
rate than capital gains
 The empirical evidence…
27

1966-1969

• Ordinary tax rate = 70%

• Capital gains rate = 28%
• Price change as % of Dividend = 78%

1981-1985

• Ordinary tax rate = 50%

• Capital gains rate = 20%
• Price change as % of Dividend = 85%

1986-1990

• Ordinary tax rate = 28%

• Capital gains rate = 28%
• Price change as % of Dividend = 90%
 Dividend Arbitrage
28

• Assume that you are a tax exempt investor, and that you
know that the price drop on the ex-dividend day is only
90% of the dividend. How would you exploit this
differential?
a. Invest in the stock for the long term
b. Sell short the day before the ex-dividend day, buy on the ex-
dividend day
c. Buy just before the ex-dividend day, and sell after.
d. ______________________________________________
 Example of dividend capture strategy with
tax factors
29

 XYZ company is selling for $50 at close of trading May

3. On May 4, XYZ goes ex-dividend; the dividend
amount is $1. The price drop (from past examination of
the data) is only 90% of the dividend amount.
 The transactions needed by a tax-exempt U.S. pension
fund for the arbitrage are as follows:
 1. Buy 1 million shares of XYZ stock cum-dividend at $50/share.
 2. Wait till stock goes ex-dividend; Sell stock for $49.10/share (50
- 1* 0.90)
 3. Collect dividend on stock.
 Net profit = - 50 million + 49.10 million + 1 million =
$0.10 million
 Two bad reasons for paying dividends
1. The bird in the hand fallacy
30

• Argument: Dividends now are more certain than capital

gains later. Hence dividends are more valuable than
capital gains. Stocks that pay dividends will therefore be
more highly valued than stocks that do not.
• Counter: The appropriate comparison should be between
dividends today and price appreciation today. The stock
price drops on the ex-dividend day.
 2. We have excess cash this year…
31

• Argument: The firm has excess cash on its hands this

year, no investment projects this year and wants to give
the money back to stockholders.
• Counter: So why not just repurchase stock? If this is a
one-time phenomenon, the firm has to consider future
financing needs. The cost of raising new financing in
future years, especially by issuing new equity, can be
staggering.
 Three “good” reasons for paying dividends…
32

• Clientele Effect: The investors in your company like

dividends.
• The Signalling Story: Dividends can be signals to the
market that you believe that you have good cash flow
prospects in the future.
• The Wealth Appropriation Story: Dividends are one way
of transferring wealth from lenders to equity investors
(this is good for equity investors but bad for lenders)
 But higher or new dividends may signal
bad news (not good)
33

Dividend Initiations and Earnings Growth

45.00%

40.00%

35.00%
Annual Earnings Growth Rate

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
-4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4
Year relative to dividend initiation (Before and after)

Running out of Investment opportunities

Microsoft and Dividends
• Microsoft had accumulated a cash balance of $ 43
billion by 2002 by paying out no dividends while
generating huge FCFE. At the end of 2003, there
was no evidence that Microsoft was being penalized
for holding such a large cash balance or that
stockholders were becoming restive about the cash
balance. There was no hue and cry demanding more
dividends or stock buybacks. Why?

• In 2004, Microsoft announced a huge special

dividend of $ 33 billion and made clear that it would
try to return more cash to stockholders in the future.
What do you think changed?
Taxes and Radical Left
• Taxes and Dividend Policy
• Capital gains taxed at lower rate than dividend income so
companies should pay lowest dividend possible.
• Short-term capital gains tax rate is 15%
• Dividend Distribution tax rate is around 17%.
• No long-term capital gains if STT paid (TILL NOW)
BUT Now long-term capital gains is taxed at 10%.

• Dividend policy should adjust to changes in tax code

Taxes Dividend Policy
• Returns to Shareholders Taxed Twice
Taxes Dividend Policy

• Australian Tax Credit to Shareholders

Reasons for steep Increase
• Change in the dividend taxation policy in 2016: The
steepest year-on-year increase in the dividend payout
ratio, however, happened in fiscal 2016 when the ratio hit
0.50 from 0.34 in fiscal 2015.
• Decline in earnings growth: This pushes up the ratio if
the absolute quantum of dividend paid out is not reduced.
Aggregate net profit for the BSE 100 companies
decreased 7% year on year in fiscal 2016. The dividend
payout, however, increased 33%