NATIONAL SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Department of International Relations and European Integration

Master’s Degree Program: “Security and Diplomacy”

Theory of International Relations

- World Politics -

Professor Vasile Secăreş, Ph.D.

SNSPA
Bucharest, 2018
IV. Power: Power Structure, Power
Politics, Power Cycles
 1. How to explain or understand the role of power:
the realist perspective on IR and power
1.1.Realism (Political Realism): a school of thought that explains
International Relations (both conflictual & cooperative) in terms of
power
→ Neorealism: the role and consequences of the international power
structure
→ The necessity to “reinvent” political realism in order to understand the
present characteristics of world politics.
1.2.A long tradition:
→ Sun Tzu (the “warring states” period): advised the rulers of state how
to use power in order to advance their interests & protect their survival
→ Thucydides: the first systematic study of war ( the Peloponesian War,
431 - 404 B.C.)
→ Niccolo Machiavelli (about 1500): leadership and the logic of power
→ Thomas Hobbes (17th century): “the state of nature” or “the state of
→ Karl von Clausewitz (19th century): “war is a continuation of politics by
other means”
→ Edward Hallet Carr (20th century): the realist critique of “the natural
harmony of national interests” (“The Twenty-Years Crisis, 1919-1939: An
Introduction to the Study of International Relations”, 1939)
→ Hans Morgenthau (after the World War II): international politics is
governed by objective laws based on national interest defined as power.
Other authors: Kenneth Waltz, Raymond Aron, Martin Wight, Hedley Bull,
Henry Kissinger & Zbigniew Brzezinski
1.3.Please remember the realist assumptions on how International Relations
work:
a) the state-centric assumption: states are the most important actors and
the distribution of power in the international system is essential.
b) the unitary rational-actor assumption: rational pursuit of self-interest
c) the anarchy assumption: they act in a system of sovereign states,
lacking central government
2. POWER: the central concept in International
Relations; surprisingly difficult to define or measure
2.1.Defining power: the ability to influence the behavior of others: to get
another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to do what it
would have done) (Robert A. Dahl) or actors are powerful to the extent that
they affect others more than others affect them (Kenneth Waltz), or
→ Power is the capability to prevail in conflicts, or
→ Power is the capability to control events (influence probabilities)
2.2.All these dimensions should be treated together
2.3.These definitions treat power as influence. Power is not influence in itself, but
the capability or potential to influence others.
2.4.This potential is based on specific (tangible) characteristics or possessions of
states: size, territory and population, level of economic development (GDP);
industrial development; military expeditures and armed forces etc. This is
power as capability.
→ Capability = the differential possession of some characteristics or attributes or
resources. Capabilities are easier to measure. GDP is a useful estimator of
material capabilities.
→ The use of geography as an element of power = a component of geopolitics
→ Power also depends on intangible elements: national will, the quality of
the political & administrative institutions, diplomatic skill; popular
support, domestic mobilization, often through religion, ideology or
nationalism.
2.5.International influence is gained by promoting its own values, by being
the one to set agenda, to form rules of behavior, to change images (the
way others see the world or even their own national interests) = soft
power (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.)
2.6.As a conclusion: Power is a mix of many “ingredients”: population,
territory, geography, natural resources, economic development and
industrial capacity, administrative capacity, scientific & technical/logical
base, moral legitimacy, military force, political culture, education, popular
support of government etc.
→ Power resources = elements that an actor can draw on over the long term
to develop particular capabilities, plans and actions.
→ Power capabilities = allow actors to exercise influence in the short term
(e.g.. military forces; military-industrial capacity; the quality of state’s
bureaucracy etc.)
 3. Power as a relation / interaction

3.1.Power is a relation, existing in a system of interaction, involving two or more

parties, each trying to influence the other more than it is itself influenced = the
exercise of power = power politics
→ Relative power = the ratio of the power that two states can bring to bear against
each other
→ Power strategies = plans actors use to develop & deploy power capabilities to
achieve goals (choosing the kinds of capabilities to develop; or to use in situations
etc.) → coherent strategies can help a state to make the most of its power
3.2.Power distribution (structure) = the most important characteristic of an
international system → the asymmetric distribution of power among states in the
world or in one region; most often it refers to the great-power system
3.3.The structure of power → a pyramid or hierarchy of power in the international
system
Conclusion: The international distribution of power = the system structure →
patterns of international behavior
4. Power and polarity

4.1.The international distribution of power can be described in terms of polarity

(the number of independent power centers): a multipolar system (5 or 6 centers
of power, not grouped into alliances); a bipolar system (2 powers or great rival
alliances); a unipolar system (hegemony)
4.2.The power status: Great Powers, Middle Powers, Regional Powers
4.3.The Balance of Power: the most reliable brake on the power of one state is
the power of other states; = balancing the power of another state or group of
states in order to maintain stability (recurring wars to adjust power relations)
→ alliances play a key role
→ In the Post-Cold War era of US dominance, balance of power theory would
predict closer relations among Russia, China, France and Germany (?)
4.4.Hegemony: the holding by one state (the hegemon) of a preponderance of
power in the International Relations system; Great Britain in the 19th century
and the US after the World War II and now
5. Power transition theory: world powers & long cycles

5.1.In terms of time, the modern world system has existed for 500 years, first
emerging when certain European states developed a capacity for global action.
5.2.The global political system = institutions & arrangements for the management of
global problems & relations and a hegemonic structure
→ entities that dominate the system for a generation or more and whose
influence pervades an entire century = world powers
→ the history of world politics = a succession of world powers; each period
associated with a world power = one cycle
→ a series of long cycles of about one hundred years.
5.3.The global political system has displayed a recurring or cyclical pattern: since
1494: 5 full systemic cycles → the transition into the 6th
5.4.Transition: global war or hegemonic war = long lasting, averaging 25 years in
length; a war that changes the international system; a mechanism of “selection”; a
war fought over succession to world leadership, when a rising power is surpassing
the most powerful state → a new hegemonic structure (filling the essential
global needs - public goods - for global governance, order, security, stability,
innovation, trade) (Organski, Modelski, Gilpin, etc.)
NB: Since 1494 there have been 5 full systemic cycles and the global system is now in
a transition phase into the 6th. or the first of a new international system
LONG CYCLES (Systemic)

LONG CYCLE WORLD POWER GLOBAL WAR

I 1494 – 1579 Portugal Italian & Indian Ocean Wars
(1494 - 1516)
II 1580 - 1689 Netherlands Spanish Wars
(1580 - 1689)
III 1689 - 1792 Britain I Wars of Louis XIV
(1688-1713)
IV 1792 - 1914 Britain II Wars of Napoleon
(1792 - 1815)
V 1914 - 1989/91 USA I World Wars I & II

VI 1989/91 - USA II ?