Stock and Flow

(sources for pictures taken from textbook not mentioned to

reduce clutter)
 Limitations of CLD
• hard to visualize how the system evolves
• in presence of multiple interacting loops
• the road-construction vs. traffic example

road
construction +
DELAY

+ pressure to reduce
road capacity B1
congestion -
+

Traffic volume -
travel time
depends on congestion, +
closing several +
feedback loops that -
attractiveness of -
cause traffic to traffic volume
+ B2 driving +
increase whenever new
+ +
roads are built

trips per day +

-
Limitations of CLD
• hard to understand how the system works
• consider a factory
Stocks and Flows

Population
births deaths

+ + + +
birth rate death rate

Net accumulation of a flow is called Stock

Nutrient flow in a field
Stock and Flow Diagram:

Stock
Inflow Outflow

Hydraulic Metaphor:

Differential Equation:
d(Stock)/dt = Net Change in Stock = Inflow(t) – Outflow(t)

Integral Equation: ???

Stocks and Flow Representation

 World Dynamics
quality of DAMAGE
Miniworld THRESHOLD
environment

INITIAL
POLLUTION

environ
degradation pollution regeneration
REGENERATION
RATE
INITAL
POPULATION
DEGRADATION
RATE
population
births deaths CONSUMPTION
consumption GOAL
level
DEATH RATE GROWTH RATE
BIRTH RATE

INITIAL production
CAPACITY
capacity capacity
BIRTH CONTROL
increase

Source: Systems Zoo: Bossel

Stocks and Flow
• Stock: fundamental quantity that characterizes the
state of a system
• can be measured in a snap-shot of the system
• stocks provide system with inertia and memory:
• past actions affect the present
• soil fertility
• nuclear arms stockpile
• Stocks can be soft/abstract quantities: apathy
SFD: Stocks only change by flows
SFD: Model Boundary
Drawing SFD
• A simple savings account
Drawing SFD
• Draw the simplest possible SFD of population dynamics

Note that the causal loops have disappeared

Garbage Dynamics
• (From Shaswat's TDSL report): in S-Ward, it is estimated that
484 ton of garbage is generated per day. The average garbage
collected is 318 Ton/day, resulting in 66% collection efficiency
Conservation of Stock
• Stocks remain in place till depleted by a flow
• A stock cannot simply disappear
• A flow either moves the extracted stock to another stock
• or it converts the extracted stock into some other quantity
• http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-19407115
Bangalore stinks as garbage piles up
Conservation of Stock..
• Turning off inflow does not mean outflow will stop
• i.e. the stock and its impact will not disappear

• commitment to global warming - dangerous and irreversible

anthropogenic warming.
• http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/07/18/understanding-ghg-
emissions-stock-vs-flows/
Conservation of Stock

• Think about the stock of water on earth

• Draw the SFD

What are the missing stocks here

Source and Sink for Flows
• Where do we get our drinking water from
• From the tap

• What was happening to that water before the dam for

Mumbai water supply was built
• Consider your previous population model
• Suppose we conclude that ‘Carrying Capacity’ of the country
cannot sustain this population growth
• Suppose the entire country voluntarily decides to adopt a two
child policy
• What do you think the graph of future population looks like.
Sketch the graph.

Population Dynamics in Detail

Disaggregation: You have to dis-aggregate the population stock
 A Disaggregated Model: World Dynamics

population dependency ratio

initial population 0 to 14
initial population 15 to 44 initial population 54 to 64 initial population 65 plus
reproductive
lifetime
Population 0 Population Population Population
To 14 15 To 44 45 To 64 65 Plus
births maturation maturation maturation deaths 65 plus
14 to 15 44 to 45 64 to 65
deaths 45 to 64
deaths 0 to 14
deaths 15 to 44
<Time>
mortality 0 to 14 mortality 15 to 44 mortality 65 plus
population mortality 45 to 64
equilibrium time <one year>
<one year>
mortality 0 to 14 mortality 15 to 44 mortality 45 to 64 mortality 65 plus
total fertility table table life expectancy
table table
<life expectancy>

deaths <Time>
<Time>