Many types of probability

problems have only two outcomes

or can be reduced to two
outcomes.
How do we resolve those kinds of
probability problems?
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
OBJECTIVE:
1. To distinguish a binomial
experiment and non-binomial
experiment.
2. To find the exact probability
for X successes in n trials of a
binomial experiment.
TWO OUTCOMES OR NOT

TOSSING A COIN
TWO OUTCOMES OR NOT

TOSSING DICE
TWO OUTCOMES OR NOT

WHEN A BABY IS
BORN
TWO OUTCOMES OR NOT

TRUE OR FALSE
EXAM QUESTION
WHAT IS BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT?
It is a probability experiment that satisfies 4 requirements
1. There must be a fixed number of trials.
2. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes
that can be reduced to two outcomes. These outcomes
can be considered either success or failure.
3.The outcomes of each trial must be independent of one
another.
4. The probability of a success must remain the same for
each trial.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Surveying 100 people to
determine if they like Safeguard
Soap
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Tossing a coin 100 times to see
how many heads occur
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Drawing a card with replacement
from a deck and getting a heart
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Asking 1000 people which brand
of cigarettes they smoke
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Testing four different brands of
aspirin to see which brands are
effective
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
consists of the outcomes of a
binomial experiment and
corresponding probabilities
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION
P(S) = probability of success
p = numerical probability of success
P (F) = probability of failure
q = numerical probability of failure
𝑃 𝑆 = 𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃 𝐹 = 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY FORMULA
In a binomial experiment, the probability of
exactly X successes in n trials is
𝑛! 𝑋 𝑛−𝑋
𝑃 𝑋 = ∙𝑝 ∙𝑞
𝑛 − 𝑋 ! 𝑋!
n = number of trials
X = number of successes in n trials
0 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑋 = 0,1,2,3 ⋯ 𝑛
A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the
probability of getting exactly 2 heads.
Given:
1 1
𝑛=3 𝑋=2 𝑝= 𝑞=
22 2
1
3! 1 1 3
𝑃 2 = ∙ ∙ =
3 − 2 ! 2! 2 2 8
= 0.375
A survey found that one out of five citizens say he or
she has visited a doctor. If 10 people are selected at
random, find the probability that exactly 3 will have
visited a doctor.
1 4
𝑛 = 10 𝑋 = 3 𝑝 = 𝑞=
5 3 57
10! 1 4
𝑃 3 = ∙ ∙
10 − 3 ! 3! 5 5
= 0.201
A survey found that 30% of teenage consumers receive
their money from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are
selected at random, find the probability that at least 3 of
them will have part-time jobs.
𝑛 = 5 𝑋 = 3,4,5 𝑝 = 0.3 𝑞 = 0.7
5!
𝑃 3 = ∙ 0.3 3 ∙ 0.7 2 = 0.132
5 − 3 ! 3!
5!
𝑃 4 = ∙ 0.3 4 ∙ 0.7 1 = 0.028
5 − 4 ! 4!
5! 5 0
𝑃 5 = ∙ 0.3 ∙ 0.7 = 0.002
5 − 5 ! 5!
𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 3 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 − 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑗𝑜𝑏𝑠
= 0.132 + 0.028 + 0.002 = 0.162
A burglar alarm system has six fail-safe
components. The probability of each
failing is 0.05, find these probabilities
a. Exactly 3 will fail
b. Fewer than 2 will fail
c. None will fail
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Testing one brand of aspirin by
using 10 people to determine
whether it is effective or not.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Asking 100 people if they
smoke
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Checking 1000 applicants to
see whether they were
admitted to college.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Surveying 300 prisoners to
see how many different
crimes they were convicted
of.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT or NOT?
Surveying 300 prisoners to
see whether this is their first
offense.
A research found that 40% of
Americans do not think having a college
education is important. If a random
sample of five Americans is selected,
find the probability of
a. Exactly 2 people will agree with that
statement
b. At most 2 people will agree with that
statement
Practical Use of Binomial Experiments
1. Adults might report relief with
medication or not
2. Adults who suffer a heart attack
might survive or not
3. Children with bacterial infection
might respond to antibiotic therapy or
not
The binomial distribution allows us to
compute the probability of observing a
specified number of “successes” when
the process is repeated a specific
number of times (e.g. in a set of
patients) and the outcome for a given
patient is either a success or failure.
Compute the probability of X successes,
using the binomial formula.
a. n = 6, X = 3, p = 0.03
b. n = 4, X = 2, p = 0.18
It is reported that 77% of workers aged
16 and over drive to work alone.
Choose 3 workers at random. Find the
probability that
a. All drive to work alone
b. None of them drive to work
c. Exactly 1 drive to work alone