RETAIL ANALYTICS

Team Name : PHOENIXES

Team Members : Aman Narula
Nidhi Bansal
Jaspreet Kaur
College Name : FMS, Delhi
Team PHOENIXES - FMS Delhi Capgemini L’INNOVATEUR 2.0

PROBLEM Developing an Analytics based model for big retail chains to help
IDENTIFIED STANDARD NEEDS
STATEMENT them know what items to make available, in which stores & quantity
Ensure accurate demand forecasting & inventory control system to Real time
OBJECTIVE Product Bundling Sales Forecasting
costs & productivity and profits. Inventory tracking
FOCUS Account factors leading to variation in demand & forecast to prevent
A) Excessive stocks (Blocked capital, labour & insurance costs)
B) Stock outs (Sales lost, reduced customer satisfaction & loyalty)
Multi store Predictive
Integration analytics
Global retail market will reach $25.038 trillion in 2019, an increase of 4.5%
SURVEY OF 200 MAJOR RETAILERS

33% 46% PRIMARY RESEARCH

US $1.1
trillion External factors Overbuying & To identify factors, leading to demand variations, that we need to account for-
Aggregate Loss due to seasonal, consumer Under buying 17% Pricing (Absolute, Relative) 10%
10 % Location
retail revenue Excess /short behavior changes Markdown
of Top 250 supply 16% Seasonality (Timing, Weather effect) 12%
12 % Product Traits (Brand, Quality)
15% Promotions by producer/retail trade 11%
11 % Product Life Cycle
13% Habitual behaviour of customers 06%
06 % Others
PRIMARY RESEARCH MAREKT LANDSCAPE MODEL DESIGNING
METHODOLOGY

Visited 5 major retailer Analyzed predictive
to understand needs, models globally to
factors affecting compare best in
demand & technology business strategies &
currently in use understand nuances
RETAILERS – WE VISITED
On the basis of our WHAT WE AIM TO PROVIDE
primary & secondary
research –we Setting up products Reduce Shrinkage
designed our
analytics model
Establishing
Using Automation
Networks

Forecasting
Creating flowcharts
Demand
Team PHOENIXES - FMS Delhi Capgemini L’INNOVATEUR 2.0

CASE IN POINTS
1 2
To enhance fill rate, efficiency, freshness to the food & grocery segment They wanted to predict customer’s future buying habits by historical data

Partnered with Perpule- moved data to the cloud, ensuring
real-time access inventory in real time. Moving the data
helps multiple stores manage inventory in real time
2017
The fulfilment centres get the real-time data which
made stock replenishment process more efficient
Partnered with Celect- to gain a more accurate view of
demand and help them exceed customer expectations by
using machine learning on their past transactions record
2018
This will help them deepen relationships with customers
by providing them likely demand, delivery timing etc

Cloud computing not only eases access but also enhances TAKEAWAY : Consumer behavior or review can have substantial effects on
TAKEAWAY : TAKEAWAY :
computing speed for big data to run – Open source processing demand- to account that- sentiment analysis on Facebook

3 4
To learn about customers shopping pattern, needs & expectations
Now Tesco is leveraging the power of big data & Machine
learning. They plan to improve their use of data in order to
deal with constantly changing customer buying patterns
This is helping them by showing how customers actually
shop, so they can adapt selling efforts to customer need &
expectations.
To minimize their error value b/w predefined demand value & actual
demand through employing regression methods
Multiple time series models to ensure all relevant
2016 parameters, such as channel and category, are considered 2018
for forecasting
Analytics will help them enhance decision making, develop
new business opportunities & help solve problems like
customer insights, pricing, ranging

TAKEAWAY Single prediction method overlooks inherent randomness of

TAKEAWAY :: Variations in dynamic variables can be understood well by TAKEAWAY
TAKEAWAY ::
machine learning tactics- Deep learning for complex factors the process, so we decided to add nine time-series methods
Team PHOENIXES - FMS Delhi Capgemini L’INNOVATEUR 2.0
To make our forecasts more reliable with respect to the trend changes and seasonality behaviors, nine different time
series methods, Support Vector Regression algorithm, and Deep Learning(DL) model will be blended by an ensemble
strategy. Deep learning approach will be used to estimate customer demand for each product. EXEC

SALES COMPANY DATA MINING & DEEP LEARNING

DATA ECONONICS
Deep Learning to analyze complex
features & relationships. DL requires
high computing power and large
amounts of data for training
WEATHER LOCATION
TREND
GROUPING RELATIONS ANALYSIS
THREE-FOLD CROSS
SOCIAL SHOPPING VALIDATION; PROFILING
MEDIA TRENDS NUISANCE REMOVAL

DATA ENRICHMENT
DATA DATA FROM BIG DATA
COLLECTION CLEANING REPLENISHMENT
DATA MART ON
FIND FREQUENT HADOOP / SPARK
DUPLICATE INCORRECT ITEMS
DATA COMPUTATION
POS data, sellers experience, H2O library : Open source big data AI
Primary research & customers Open source data processing
platform to implement DL algorithms on engine- for storage & stream
feedback for real-time, subjectivity Hadoop Spark big data environments.
ERRONEOUS MISSING data, trends and graph processing
VALUE VALUES
Apriori algorithm : The frequent item
sets determined will be used to
determine trends in the database.
Team PHOENIXES - FMS Delhi Capgemini L’INNOVATEUR 2.0
ENSEMBLE STRATEGY : An ensemble system is composed of two parts: ensemble generation and ensemble integration In
ensemble generation part, a diverse set of base prediction models is generated by using different methods or samples. In
integration part, the predictions of all models are combined by using an integration strategy EXEC

FEATURE EXTRACTION ALGO
To present and analyze the
most significant features
Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) : Works on feature
elimination & feature extraction
DIMENSIONALITY CLUSTERING
REDUCTION
CLUSTER FORMATION
Segregation of groups with
similar traits and assign them
into clusters
K-means will be employed- greedy
& fast clustering algo that partition
samples into k clusters each sample
is near to cluster center
ensemble system
Ensemble generation ensemble integration
DEEP LEARNING MODEL
BOOSTING STRATEGY
Decision integration approach
TIME SERIES MODEL combines strengths of
different algorithms into a
SUPPORT VECTOR
single collaborated method
philosophy. Weighted
REGRESSION MODEL
combination of the results
TIME SERIES MODEL DEEP LEARNING MODEL SVR MODEL
Predict future demand based Multilayer feedforward Support Vector Regression
on historical time series data artificial neural network tries to fit the best line within
which is a sequence of data (MLFANN) – Implementation a predefined or threshold
points measured at of artificial neural networks error value; to predict a
successive intervals in time to analyze historical & real- continuous variable
time data

1. DL consumes time & leads computing lack which made us to opt for clustering.
POTENTIAL

POTENTIAL
1. Reduce out of stock products by 18-20% CHALLENGE
IMPACT

2. Limited number of historical time-series data related with demand.

2. 85-90% customers will find what they want
3. Data collection itself will poise as a challenge
3. 4% increase in forecasting accuracy 4. Deficiency of real-life dataset to compare the state.
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