Teaching Pack – Probability of combined events

Lesson 3 – Draw and interpret tree diagrams

Cambridge IGCSE™
Mathematics 0580

Version 1.0
Lesson objectives

• To be able to draw and interpret probability tree diagrams.

• Use probability tree diagrams to solve probability questions involving independent
events.
Finding probabilities - recap

A bag contains six tickets numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

A student plays a game where they draw a ticket from the bag.
If they get a number less than 3 they eat a chocolate.
They play the game twice, returning the ticket between games so that there are
always six tickets in the bag.

Find, using any method, the probability that:

a) The student eats two chocolates.
b) The student eats no chocolates.
c) The student ends up eating exactly one chocolate.
d) The student eats at least one chocolate.
Finding probabilities - recap

2nd game Calculate the probability that:

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 a) The student eats two chocolates.
1 x x
b) The student eats no chocolates.
1st game

2 x x
3 c) The student ends up eating exactly one
4 chocolate.
5
d) The student eats at least one chocolate.
6

P(Student eats 2 chocolates) = P(Win Game 1) × P(Win game 2)

=  2 × 2
6 6
= 4
  =  1
36 9
Finding probabilities - recap

2nd game Calculate the probability that:

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 a) The student eats two chocolates.
1
b) The student eats no chocolates.
1st game

2
3 x x x x c) The student ends up eating exactly one
4 x x x x chocolate.
5 x x x x
d) The student eats at least one chocolate.
6 x x x x

P(Student eats no chocolates) = P(Lose Game 1) × P(Lose game 2)

=  4 × 4
6 6
= 16
  =  4
36 9
Finding probabilities - recap

2nd game Calculate the probability that:

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 a) The student eats two chocolates.
1 x x x x
x b) The student eats no chocolates.
1st game

2 x x x
3 x x c) The student ends up eating exactly one
4 x x chocolate.
5 x x
d) The student eats at least one chocolate.
6 x x
P(Student eats 1 chocolate) =
P(Win Game 1) × P(Lose Game 2) + P(Lose Game 1) × P(Win Game 2)
2
  × 4 +  4   × 2
= 6 6 6 6
= 8
  +  8 16 4
 
=   =
36 36 36 9
Finding probabilities - recap

2nd game Calculate the probability that:

+ 1 2 3 4 5 6 a) The student eats two chocolates.
1 x x x x x x
x b) The student eats no chocolates.
1st game

2 x x x x x
3 x x c) The student ends up eating exactly one
4 x x chocolate.
5 x x
d) The student eats at least one chocolate.
6 x x

P(Student eats at least 1 chocolate) = P(eat 1) + P(eat 2)

=  4 +  1  
9 9
=  5
9
Tree diagrams

Here is a different way to show the outcomes for my game.

1st game
 1
W
3
Start by considering the 1st game only.

He can either win and eat the chocolate or lose.

 2 L
3
Tree diagrams

Here is a different way to show the outcomes for my game

If he wins the 1st game, he still has a second game to play. He might still win or lose
the second game.

2nd game
 1
1st game W
3
 1
3 W
 2 L
3
 2 L
3
Tree diagrams

If he lost the 1st game, he still has a second game to play. He might still win or lose
the second game.

1st game
 1
W
3
2nd game
 1
3
 2 W
L
3
 2 L
3
Tree diagrams

There are 4 possible outcomes and to calculate the probability of each outcome you
multiply the probabilities on each branch together.
2nd game
Outcomes
1st game
 1 1  1 1
W P(W then × =
3 3 3 9
 1 W)
W 1  2 2
3 × =
 2 L P(W then L) 3 3 9
 1 3
W 2  1 2
 2 3 P(L then W) × =
L 3 3 9
3
 2 L P(L then L)
2  2 4
× =
3 3 3 9
Tree diagrams

We can show the outcome of 2 games as follows

2nd game
Outcomes
1 1 1 1
1st game   W P(W then W)   × =
3 3 3 9
1
  W
3 1 2 2
2   × =
  L
P(W then L)
3 3 9
1 3
  W 2 1 2
3
2
  P(L then W)   × =
3 L 3 3 9
2 2 2 4
  L P(L then L)   × =
3 3 3 9

a) The student eats two chocolates.

Tree diagrams

We can show the outcome of 2 games as follows

2nd game
Outcomes
1 1 1 1
1st game   W P(W then W)   × =
3 3 3 9
1
  W
3 1 2 2
2   × =
  L
P(W then L)
3 3 9
1 3
  W 2 1 2
3
2 P(L then W)   × =
  L 3 3 9
3
2 2 2 4
  L P(L then L)   × =
3 3 3 9

b) The student eats no chocolates.

Tree diagrams

We can show the outcome of 2 games as follows

2nd game
Outcomes
1 W 1 1 1
1st game   P(W then W)   × =
3 3 3 9
1
  W
3 1 2 2
2 P(W then L)   × =
  L 3 3 9
1 3
  W 2 1 2
3
2 P(L then W)   × =
  L 3 3 9
3
2 2 2 4
  L P(L then L)   × =
3 3 3 9

2  2 4
c) The student only eats one chocolate. +   = 
9 9  9
Tree diagrams

We can show the outcome of 2 games as follows

2nd game
Outcomes
1 W 1 1 1
1st game   P(W then W)   × =
3 3 3 9
1
  W
3 1 2 2
2 P(W then L)   × =
  L 3 3 9
1 3
  W 2 1 2
3
2 P(L then W)   × =
  L 3 3 9
3
2 2 2 4
  L P(L then L)   × =
3 3 3 9

2  2 1 4
d) The student eats at least one chocolate +  +  = 
9 9 9  9
Try this!

A bag contains six tickets numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

A student plays a game where they draw a ticket from the bag.
If they get a number less than 3 they eat a chocolate.
They play the game twice, returning the ticket between games so that there are
always six tickets in the bag.

What happens if the first ticket is not returned to the bag before the second ticket is
drawn?
Can I draw a possibility space diagram for this situation?
Can I draw a tree diagram for this situation?
What is the probability of winning exactly one game now?
Try this!

2nd game
1 Outcomes
1st game   W
5 2 1 2
P(W then  × =
W W) 6 5 30
2
  2 4 8
6 4 P(W then L)  × =
  L 6 5 30
5
2
  W 4 2 8
4
5 P(L then W)  × =
  L 6 5 30
6
4 3 12
3 P(L then L)  × =
  L 6 5 30
5

8
P(Win exactly one chocolate) =   + 8 = 16 =8
30 30 30 15