Analisis Regresi

Ekonometrika 1
Dr. Ghozali Maski
Historical Origin of the Term
Regression
• Francis Galton, although there
was a tendency for tall parents to
have tall children and for short
parents to have short children,
the average height of children
born of parents of a given height
tended to move or “regress” to
ward the average height in the
population as a whole.
• Karl Pearson
2
The Modern Interpretation

• Regression analysis is concerned

with the study of the dependence of
one variable, the dependent
variable, on one or more other
variables, the explanatory variables,
with a view to estimating and/or
predicting the (population) mean
value of the former in terms of the
known or fix (in repeated sampling)
value of the latter.
3
 Some Key Point
• Regression versus causation
• Regression versus correlation
• Terminology and notation:
Explained variable

Regressa Endogen Controlle

Predicted Response Outcome
nd ous d variable

Independent variable

Regresso Exogeno Control

Predictor Stimulus Covariate
r us variables

4
The Nature and Sources of
Data for Economic Analysis
• Types of data:
- Time series
- Cross-section
- Pooled
• Sources of data:
- Internet
• Measurement scale of variables:
Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio
5
Two-Variable Regression
Analysis: some basic ideas

• Regression analysis is largely

concerned with estimating
and/or predicting the
(population) mean or average
value of the dependent variable
on the basis of the known or
fixed values of the explanatory
variable (s).
6
 Table income and
consumption
X weekly family income X $
Y 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

Weekly family 55 65 79 80 102 110 120 135 137 150

Consumption 60 70 84 93 107 115 136 137 145 152
Expenditure
Y$ 65 74 90 95 110 120 140 140 155 175
70 80 94 103 116 130 144 152 165 178
75 85 98 108 118 135 145 157 175 180
88 113 125 140 160 189 185
115 162 191
Total 325 462 445 707 678 750 685 1043 966 1211

7
The Concept of Population and
Sample Regression Function

• Population Regression Function

(PRF)

E(Y|Xi) = β1 + β2 Xi

• Sample Regression Function (SRF)

Y = b1 + b2 Xi + u
8
Random Sample
Y X
70 80
65 100
90 120
95 140
110 160
115 180
120 200
140 220
155 240
150 260

9
The Meaning of the Term
Linear
• Linearity in the variable
• Linearity in the parameters

10
The Significance of the
Stochastic Error terms
• Vagueness of theory
• Unavailability of data
• Intrinsic randomness in human
behavior
• Poor proxy variables
• Wrong functional form

11
SELESAI
• Ada Pertanyaan??

12