Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy

TO : DR. SYED AHMED SIR

BY : ARAFAT SAUDAGAR
INTRODUCTION
 A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that is zoonotic and causes respiratory disease
 Coronaviruses are important human and animal pathogens.
  the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus was identified as the cause of a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, a city in the
Hubei Province of China.
  Globally, more than 200,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported. 
 Since the first reports of cases from Wuhan, a city in the Hubei Province of China, at the end of 2019, more than 80,000
COVID-19 cases have been reported in China.
 ongoing local transmission has driven smaller outbreaks in some locations outside of China, including South Korea, Italy, Iran,
and Japan, India, and infections elsewhere have been identified in travelers from those countries.
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
  The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to be within 14 days following exposure, with most cases occurring
approximately four to five days after exposure
 symptoms would develop in 2.5 percent of infected individuals within 2.2 days and in 97.5 percent of infected individuals within
11.5 days . The median incubation
period in this study was 5.1 days.
 In a study of 1099 patients with confirmed symptomatic COVID-19, the median incubation period was four days (interquartile
range two to seven days)
 In a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention that included approximately 44,500 confirmed infections,
87 percent of patients were between 30 and 79 years old .
 CORONA VIRUS OUTBREAK IMPACTS JEWELLERY DEMAND
 Gold hit by financial market turmoil: WGC
 it is a high quality and highly liquid asset, trading over $260 billion per day in March.
 Funds across regions have seen US$3.6 billion of net inflows in March for a collective total
of US$11.5 billion YTD.
 Before 44961.00 10 GRMS Today 40377.00Per 10 GRMS
  the price of gold will surge by at least 260% at $5,000 an ounce by the year 2020.
PROBLEM STATEMENT

 Gold prices hit due to massive liquidation across asset classes

 the world over central banks are slashing interest rates.
 Gold traded 2.3% higher at $1,505.21 eight-day rally.
 In the international market, both the metals were trading with hefty gains, with gold quoting higher at USD 1,514
per ounce and silver at USD 12.96 per ounce.
 the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.16 per cent to 922.23 tonnes on
Thursday.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
 the metal was on track to post its second weekly drop due to a rush for cash amid the widening economic fallout from the coronavirus
outbreak.
 “We believe that recent volatility in the gold price has been driven by massive liquidations across all assets, and likely magnified by

leveraged positions and rule-based trading,” the report said .

 widespread negative real rates and quantitative easing will be supportive of gold investment demand as a safe haven.

 Gold has taken support around $1450 and made a double bottom and if it breaches that level, we may see gold crashing till $1380.

 the next resistance comes at $1570. After the gold has confirmed that a bottom is in place.

 Investors should look at the history of 2008 crash where the same situation was playing out.

 The fall is approximately 8.4 in percentage terms, which is very high compared to average weekly movements.

 Yellow metal extends gains as coronavirus spreads

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
 Spot Gold on Monday traded 8.60 points higher at USD 1,579, trading near a 7-year high of $ 1,610 an
ounce.
 Tracking gains in international spot prices, coupled with depreciation of rupee against the US dollar,
physical gold or retail gold price traded around Rs 41,600 in Delhi.
 Amid the disease outbreak, oil prices plummeted over 2% today to $59.33 per barrel.
 In a similar trend, silver futures on MCX jumped 0.66% or nearly Rs 308 to Rs 47,243 per kg.
 In the international market, both the metals were trading with hefty gains, with gold quoting higher at
USD 1,514 per ounce and silver at USD 12.96 per ounce.
ANALYSIS
PER DAY CASES OF COVID19 IN INDIA
DISCUSSION
The 2020 Coronavirus outbreak, however, shall result in more than50percent decline in demand and is likely to


go higher.

The country is already experiencing a slowdown in growth. In the third quarter of the current fiscal, the economy


grew at 4.7 per cent, slowest in six year.

But this time the issue is inverted. It’s a revenue issue first and foremost. As far as revenues are concerned, they


are just not coming. It is not a decline in demand rather it is a decimation of demand .

Coronavirus impact: Over 50% of India Inc sees impact on ops, 80% witness fall in cash flow.


A significant 53 per cent of Indian businesses indicate the marked impact of the coronavirus pandemic on business


operations even at early stages, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) said.

Rising prices may hit gold demand by 8% this year.

CONCLUSION AND FUTURE IMPLICATION
 writing blank cheques to initiating lockdown, governments are using every possible means to slow the
spreading of the virus.
 The authorities have advised social distancing and have closed most public transport services.
 Gold futures were up 0.09 per cent to Rs 40,280 per 10 grams. Silver futures were up 1.26 per cent to
Rs 35,900 per kg.
 The increase in central bank demand for gold reflects current geopolitical, political and economic
conditions, as well as structural changes in the global economy.
 value in ETFs, investors cumulatively held about $135 billion of gold (2,609 metric tonnes) as on 19
February.
 small portion - around 10-15 per cent - of entire investment portfolio to gold with a long-term investment
horizon.
REFERENCE

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news
/gold-rate-today-in-india-latest-news/articleshow/74311017.cms?u
tm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign
=cppst


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news
/gold-rate-today-in-india-latest-news/articleshow/74311017.cms?u
tm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign
=cppst
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_India
 conomictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-
THANK YOU