Introduction to Probability

Dr. Faryal Younis

Week: 1
 Uncertainty
• Types of Uncertainties

1. Natural randomness (Aleatory)

2. Inaccuracies in prediction and estimation of reality (Epistemic)

Probability and Statistics provide the proper tool for modeling and analysis.
 Statistics
Presentation and interpretation of chance outcomes
1. The number of accidents that occur monthly at the U-turn in
front of NUTECH, hoping to justify the installation of a traffic
light
2. The volume of gas released in a chemical reaction when the
concentration of an acid is varied
3. Items coming off an assembly line as defective or non-defective
4. …
5. …
 Experiment
• Any process that generates a set of data
• Examples:
1. Tossing of a coin
2. Launching of a missile and observing of its velocity at specified
times
3. The opinions of voters concerning a new sales tax
4. …
5. …
 Terms
• Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is
called the sample space and is represented by the symbol S.

• Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the

sample space, or simply a sample point.
 Toss a die
• If we are interested in the number that shows on the top face,
the sample space is S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

• If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd,

the sample space is S2 = {even, odd}
 Task: 1
• An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a
second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a
die is tossed once. What will be the sample space?

• Suppose that three items are selected at random from a

manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective (D), or non-defective (N). List the elements of the sample
space.
Types of Sample Space
Discrete sample space (countably infinite no of sample points):
1. The no of flaws in a given length of welding
2. The no of cars crossing a toll bridge over a year

Continuous sample space (no of sample points always infinite):

3. The location on a toll bridge where a traffic accident may occur
4. Bearing capacity of a clay soil deposit between 1.5-4.0 tsf (tons per
square foot)
 Task: 2
From historical data of floods for a river, suppose the annual maximum flood
levels above the mean river flow range from 1m to 5m.
• If the annual maximum flow is measured in an increment of 0.1 m then the
sample space of the annual flow would be
S={1.0, 1.1, 1.2, …, 4.9, 5.0}
• The event of annual flood flow exceeding 3.0 m
A={3.1, 3.2, …, 4.9, 5.0}
• If the annual maximum flow can be any level from 1m to 5m, then the sample
space of the annual flow would be the continuum of infinite values between
1m and 5m.
 Events
• An event is a subset of a sample space.

• The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all

elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by
the symbol .

• Impossible Event: no sample point, empty set.

• Certain event: all sample points in sample space.

 Events

• The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B,

is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.

• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ,

that is, if A and B have no elements in common.

• The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∪B, is
the event containing all the elements that belong to A and B.
Operation of Sets (Overview)
Examples:
In describing the state of supply of construction materials, if E1
represent the shortage of concrete, E2 represent shortage of steel,
then
1. Shortage of construction material means:
2. No shortage of construction material means:
3. Shortage of both materials means:

The transportation of cargoes between Peshawar and Karachi may be

by air (A), highway (H) or railway (R), then
4. Cargoes may be shipped by air or highway or railway means:
5. Cargoes may be shipped by air alone means:
Examples:
Consider a simple chain of two links as in fig. Let E1 be the breakage of
link 1 and E2 be the breakage of link 2.

1. Failure of chain means:

2. No failure of chain means:
Task: 3
 Task: 4
Suppose there are two highways from city A to city B as shown in fig.
Let E1 represent the event that Route 1 is open and E2 that Route 2 is
open to traffic.
• At least one of the two routes is open means:
 Task: 5
• The water supply for two cities C and D comes from the two sources A
and B as in fig. Water is transported by pipelines consisting of
branches 1, 2, 3 and 4. Assume that either one of the two sources, by
itself, is sufficient to supply the water for both cities. Failure of a
branch means there is serious leakage or rupture of the branch.

• Shortage of water in city C means:

• No shortage of water in city D means:
Home Task