Sales forecasting Sales vol = (Mkt size) x (% of mkt aware of prod) x (% of mkt who try the prod) x (% of mkt who will rebuy) x (no. of repeat purchases per yr) x (unit price)
Sales forecasting by:
Customer and market research Jury of executive opinion Sales force estimates Look alike analysis Similar products mapped
PSM Module 8 Business Analysis 2
Sensitivity analysis Reduction in competitor’s price after launch - reduce own price - spend more on marketing and promotion
PSM Module 8 Business Analysis 3
Cannibalization New Prod (Rs) Old Prod (Rs)
Unit S.P. 10 10.5
Unit Var cost 5 6
Unit Contribution 5 4.5
PSM Module 8 Business Analysis 4
Cannibalization To sell 20,000 units of New Prod To sell 20,000 units of Old Prod
Diversion of 10,000 units from Old Prod
Loss of Re. 0.5 on sale of 1 unit Loss of Rs, 5000 on sale of 10,000 units Contribution from New Prod = 10,000 x 5 Net Financial gain = 50,000 – 5,000 = Rs 45,000 PSM Module 8 Business Analysis 5 Research Factor analysis
Regression - relationship between factors and
success/ failure
PSM Module 8 Business Analysis 6
Assignment Write down the factors for the success of a product in the market.