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Lecture
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKET
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign exchange market:
A market for converting the
currency of one country
into the currency of
another.
Exchange rate:
The rate at which one currency
is converted into another.
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign exchange risk:
The risk that arises from changes in exchange rates: the
likelihood that unpredictable or unexpected changes in
exchange rates will have an impact (positive or
negative) on the value of various activities of a
company’s business.
Examples:
An unexpected change in exchange rates will change
the home currency value of foreign currency cash
payment that is expected from a foreign source;
An unexpected change in exchange rates will change
the amount of home currency needed to make a
payment or service a debt that requires payment in a
foreign currency.
Foreign Exchange Market
MAD’S MONEY CLASS
MONEY
2 MM/1CM
1MM/1C
M
4MM/1C
M
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
Exchange rates are quoted in two ways:
Price of the foreign currency price in terms of
dollars [or of home currency per foreign
currency]
e.g. $0.00854/yen
Known as direct or sometimes as American quote
Price of dollars in terms of the foreign
currency [or foreign currency per home
currency]
e.g. SF 1.562/$
Known as indirect or sometimes as European
quote
READING FOREIGN EXCHANGE
QUOTATIONS
Hill, 5th
ed.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
Foreign exchange traders have nicknames for
currencies:
“Cable” is the exchange rate between US Dollars and
Pounds Sterling
Canadian dollar is a “loonie”
French franc used to be known as “Paris”
New Zealand dollar is a “kiwi”
Australian dollar is an “aussi”
Swiss Franc is a “Swissie
Singapore dollar is a “Sing
dollar”
TERMS: CURRENCY VALUES
Forex deals with exchange, so the value of one currency is
often discussed in comparison to another currency. (e.g. value
of currency “A” against currency “B”)
APPRECIATION (rise): a currency increases in value against a
foreign currency in response to market demand; it is getting
stronger, therefore, less of this currency is needed to convert to
a weaker foreign currency; in other words, the currency that is
appreciating will buy more of a weaker currency.
DEPRECIATION(fall): a currency decreases in value against
another currency in response to market forces; it is growing
weaker, therefore, more of this currency is needed to convert to
a stronger foreign currency; in other words, the currency that
is depreciating will buy less of a stronger currency.
UNDERVALUED: a currency is too weak against another
currency; is not as strong as it should be.
OVERVALUED: a currency is too strong against another
currency; should have less value than it does.
Foreign Exchange Market
Is currency appreciating or depreciating?
Twogeneral functions:
Converting currencies
Reducing risk
HOW TO CONVERT
EXAMPLE: You arrive at the train station in Switzerland early in
the morning. You go to the exchange office to trade your U.S.
dollars for Swiss francs. You ask the exchange office: “How
many Swiss francs do I receive for every dollar? The clerk
answers:
“The rate is 1.5625 Swiss Francs per dollar.” You exchange
US$50.00. How many Swiss francs do you receive?
A. US$50 x SF1.5625 = SF 78.13
You stop for a moment and think to yourself, “Well, then, how
many dollars are in one Swiss franc?”
A. 1USD =
US$0.6400/SF SF 1.5625/S
You are back at the train station and it is time to leave
Switzerland and you have a bunch of Swiss francs in your pocket
which you want to convert into Euros. You are told that the
exchange rate for SF to Euros is: SF1.5466/Euro.
So how many Euros do you get for the 152 Swiss Francs you
have?
A. 152SF = 98.28 Euros
SF 1.5466/Euro
CURRENCY CONVERSION
Fundamentally, currency conversion involves a transfer of
purchasing power: this is necessary because international
trade and capital transactions usually involve parties living
in different countries with different national currencies.
Countries either transfer power to or from their home
currency in order to be active in the global economy.
When a company is importing goods from another country,
it will usually give up its domestic currency in the foreign
exchange market to get the foreign currency needed to pay
for the import.
Result: demand for the foreign currency increases,
supply in the foreign exchange market of the home
currency increases.
CURRENCY
CONVERSION:WHEN
Companies receiving payment in foreign
currencies need to convert these payments
to their home currency
EXAMPLE: A Japanese components
manufacturer receives payment in US$ from
their U.S. customer ; the manufacturer may
want to convert it so it can be spent in
Japan.
Companies paying foreign businesses for
goods or services
EXAMPLE: A U.S. company must obtain
Japanese yen to pay for an order they received
because the contract specified “payment in
yen.”
CURRENCY
CONVERSION:WHEN
Companies investing spare cash for short
terms in money market accounts
U.S. company has dollars that they want
to invest short term, but the interest rate
is only 2% in U.S. but 12% in South
Korea.
So, the company changes dollars into won
and invests in the money market of
South Korea
Rate of return will depend on the interest
rate and the value of the Korean won at
the time they exchange the won back into
dollars and bring back their money to the
U.S.
CURRENCY
CONVERSION:WHEN
Companies taking advantage of changing exchange rates
(Speculation = short term moment of funds from one
currency to another, seeking to profit from changes in
exchange rates)
U.S. company has $10 million to invest. The company
thinks that the dollar is too strong against the yen (it is
overvalued), and that it will lose its value over time
(depreciate).
Assume exchange rate is $1 = Yen 120
Company changes money and receives
1.2 billion Yen ($10 million x 120 yen)
Over next three months value of the dollar drops, so
that one dollar buys less yen and now the
exchange rate is $1 = Yen 100.
Now the company exchanges the 1.2 billion Yen back
into dollars and because of the new exchange rate
receives $12 million.
REDUCING RISK
Insuring against foreign
exchange risk: protecting
against unexpected or
unpredictable changes in
exchange rates through
hedging transactions.
REDUCING RISK
TERMS important in discussions of
FOREX risk issues
Spot exchange rate: rate of currency exchange
on a particular day
Amsterdam
Hamburg
Brussels
Dusseldorf
London
Frankfurt
Toronto Zurich
Paris
Basel
Rome
San Chicago Madrid
Vienna
Francisco New Tokyo
York
Hong Kong
Mexico
City Bombay
Singapore
Sydney
Rio de Janiero
Melbourne
São Paulo
THE MARKET THAT NEVER
SLEEPS
SOURCE: Eitman, David K.,
Stonehill, Arthur L., Moffet, Michael
H. MULTINATIONAL
BUSINESS FINANCE.
Addison Westley: New York,
2001.
Foreign Exchange Market
Think of the Foreign Exchange Market
like Las Vegas
24 hours
Many players
Presence of risk
Action happening
all the time
Economic Theories about How
Exchange Rates are Determined
Many different theories exist. No true
consensus exists.
If the factors which influence the value of
exchange rates can be identified, then we may
be able to forecast exchange rate fluctuations
and movements.
This knowledge, in turn, can help companies to
protect against foreign exchange risk and preserve
profitability of international trade and investment
and manage price competitiveness.
WHAT FACTORS INFLUENCE THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
Investor psychology
and “Bandwagon”
effects: the “People”
effect
Role of the
Government
Forex: Supply and Demand
The spot exchange rate depends on supply
and demand for a foreign currency throughout
the day. This is in response to the changes in
the supply and demand for goods and
services.
Differences in spot rates reflect differences in
supply and demand for currencies. These
differences will affect the value of the
currency.
Example: If spot demand for U.S. dollars is high and U.S.
dollars are in short supply but the spot demand for British
pounds is low and the supply of British pounds is
plentiful, the dollar will most likely appreciate against the
pound. This reflects the supply and demand for U.S. and
British goods.
ARBITRAGE: moments of opportunity which
impact supply and demand for FOREX
Arbitrage: a trading strategy based on the purchase of
foreign exchange in one market at one price while
simultaneously selling it in another market at a more
advantageous price in order to obtain a risk-free profit on
the price differential. “Buy low/sell high.”
Arbitrage in foreign exchange takes advantage of the
disequilibrium (imbalance) which exists in foreign exchange
markets. It overcomes differences in geography, currency
type, and time.
Example: At 8:00 a.m. in New York, the Swiss franc is quoted for sale at
$.46 and in Zurich at that same time for $.48. Traders and arbitrageurs
will buy Swiss francs in New York and sell then in Zurich. Demand in New
York would increase and raise the price in New York and the increased
supply in Zurich would cause the price to lower. Eventually, these trades
would cause the price to be stabilized.
Currency Conversion: Transfer of
Purchasing Power
Trade in home currency for
foreign currency: increases
demand for foreign currency
Foreign Exchange
[and decreases supply];
Market
increases supply of home
currency [decreases demand]
in foreign exchange market
FOREIGN
HOME
CURRENCY
CURRENCY
Forex: Supply and Demand
Supply and demand as it relates to
import/export activity.
WHEN…..
Domestic currency is appreciating: imports tend to
increase because foreign goods are less
expensive and exports tend to decrease because
they cost more to foreigners.
Domestic currency is depreciating: exports tend to
increase because domestic goods cost less for
foreigners and imports tend to decrease because
they cost more to local consumers in the domestic
market.
Supply in Forex market of a domestic currency
is increased under imports.
Demand in Forex market of a domestic currency
is increased under exports.
Forex : Changes in Income
Changes in income due to increased
employment, more workers in the workforce,
periods of economic growth etc. give residents
of a country more expendable income.
An increase in domestic income of a country
will usually encourage residents to spend a
portion of their additional income on imports.
When income of a nation grows rapidly,
imports tend to rise rapidly.
Results: More domestic currency is traded for
more foreign currency and the domestic
currency will usually depreciate.
Forex : Changes in Income
If incomes in both trading partners are
increasing, the country with the faster
growing income will increase demand
for imports relatively more.
This may lead to a depreciation in currency
of the more rapidly growing national
economy
Forex: Changes in Prices
Basic concept: Law of One
Price
How is the exchange rate between two currencies determined? In
theory, the exchange rate should be the medium to transfer and
equalize purchasing power from one currency to another. What is
the relationship between prices and exchange rates? We must
examine two theories: The Law of One Price and Purchasing
Power Parity.
LAW OF ONE PRICE
Basic premise: If an identical product or service can be sold in two
different markets, and no restrictions exist on the sale or
transportation costs of moving the product between markets, the
product’s price should be the same in both markets.
therefore :Price currency A = Price currency B x exchange rate
How would this come about?
This is the result of the occurrence of arbitrage and markets seeking
equilibrium. Prices that are different will tend to equalize in markets
free of transportation costs and trade barriers.
Example: US/British pound exchange rate: $1.50/ £1 A jacket selling for
US$75 in New York should sell for £50 in London ($75/1.50)
If jackets in London sell for £40, demand would increase, and price would go
up in London while extra supply would lower the price in New York. (this
explains why companies export—to take advantage of differences in price)
Net result: eventually, in theory, prices will tend to equalize:
P$ = P£ x E$/£
Forex: Change in Prices
Basic concept: Purchasing Power
Parity
PURCHASING POWER PARITY: in theory, the “ideal” is that
the exchange rate should represent equivalence of
purchasing power between two currencies.
Basic premise: If the Law of One Price were true for all
goods and services, the PPP could be found from any
individual set of prices, assuming the market is efficient.
Thus, E$/£ = P$ / P £
By extension: In relatively efficient markets (few
impediments to trade and investment) then a ‘basket of
goods’ should be roughly equivalent in each country.
Forex: Change in Prices
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Extension of PPP/Law of One Price: applicable to a basket of
goods and their prices.
If relative prices change in a basket of goods, the exchange rates
should change to reflect the difference in purchasing power for a
given currency PPP.
Example:
Jan 1: a basket of goods costs U.S. $200 and Japan ¥ 20,000
22,000
Result: it takes 10% more yen to buy the same basket of
goods(22,000/20,000) so the value of the yen is depreciating
by 10%. The dollar is appreciating and will buy 10% more.
The change is reflected in both the price of the goods and the
price of the currencies.
Forex: Change in Prices
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Extension of PPP/Law of One Price: if it is known that
prices are going to change in the future, can we project
what the forward rate will be?
Example: Two countries, Great Britain and United States
produce just one good: beef. Suppose the price of beef in the
United States is $2.80 per pound and in Britain, it is £3.70
per pound.
According to PPP theory, what should the $/£ be?
Hill, p. 349
Switzerland
THE BIG MAC INDEX
Big Mac Index provides
general comparison of
currencies against a
base currency (US$) to
determine which are
under-valued or over-
valued against the
base currency
EXAMPLE: the Chinese Yuan
FULL COVERAGE: China WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Yahoo.com July 21, 2005 China switched from being
China Severs Its Currency's Link t pegged to the U.S. dollar at 8.28
yuan to the U.S. dollar to a
AP - 41 minutes ago “managed floating exchange rate
BEIJING - China dropped its regime.” Currency is being
politically volatile policy of revalued to 8.11 yuan to the U.S.
linking its currency to the U.S. dollar.
dollar on Thursday, adopting a Chinese exports will become more
more flexible system based on expensive over time.
a basket of foreign currencies
that could push up the price of Imports into China, of products
Chinese exports to the United such as oil, will become less
States and Europe. The expensive over. Foreign assets
government also strengthened will also become less expensive
the state-set exchange rate to over time.
8.11 yuan to the dollar — from This was done in response to
8.277 yuan, where it had been pressure by the U.S. and the E.U.
fixed for more than a decade in particular because cheap
— in a surprise announcement Chinese imports into these areas
on state television's evening were creating too much
news. competition.
Change in Prices due to Inflation
Forex: Money Supply and
Inflation
PPP theory predicts that changes in relative prices will
result in a change in exchange rates. What happens
when there is price inflation?
Inflation occurs when the money supply increases faster
than output increases.
If more money is available, banks can borrow more money
from the government and consumers can borrow more
from banks.
More money in circulation can create more demand for
goods and services that is not satisfied by supply.
Prices will increase.
A country with high inflation should expect its currency to
depreciate against the currency of a country with a
lower inflation rate. (Deflation should cause
appreciation).
Forex: Interest Rates
What about the relationship of inflation
and interest rates? What is the impact
on forex rates?
Theory says that nominal interest rates
reflect expectations about future inflation
rates.
Fisher Effect (i = r + I) Nominal
interest rates are equal to the real rate
of return plus compensation for
expected inflation.
Example: if real interest rate in a
country is 5% and annual inflation is
expected to be 10 percent, the
nominal interest rate will be 15%.
Forex: Interest
Rates
In the global
can exist.
market, differences in interest rates
Investors will trade in their home currency to
obtain currency of the country offering the higher
rate so that they can purchase higher yield assets.
Initially this will cause more demand for the
currency in the country with the higher rate and
thus cause an appreciation of that currency.
Example: Japan has higher interest rates than the U.S.,
so U.S. investors trade in their dollars for yen in order
buy higher yield assets. This increased demand for yen
causes the yen to appreciate initially.
Forex: Interest
As investors transfer capital freely between
countries Rates
and take advantage of interest rate
differences, eventually arbitrage will
equalize them.
-Example: Over time, the lower interest rate in the U.S.
will attract more borrowers and the demand for money
in the U.S. will raise the interest rates there. The
increase in supply of money in Japan would begin to
lower interest rates there. This would continue until both
sets of real interest rates are equalized.
Forex: Interest Rates
PPP theory predicts that changes in relative
prices will result in a change in exchange
rates; exchange rates are affected by
inflation.
From Fisher Effect, we know that
interest rates reflect expectations about
inflation
Interest rates tell us about inflation
inflation can cause exchange rates to
change Therefore, theory says that
interest rates reflect expectations about
future exchange rates.
Forex: Interest Rates
By extension, theory identifies the International
Fisher Effect (IFE): If PPP holds true and real
rates of interest are equal across countries, the
following is assumed.
For any two countries, the spot exchange rate should
change in an equal amount but in the opposite
direction to the difference in nominal interest rates
between the two countries.
Example: if nominal interest rate in Japan is 10 %
and in the U.S. is 6%, we would expect the yen
to depreciate by 4% against the dollar.
Forex: Role of
The Government
monetary, fiscal, and trade policies
of the Government can impact the
exchange rate. Examples:
Creation of barriers to trade and
investment
Controls on flow of foreign currency
Restrictions on foreign investments
Control of repatriation of profits, dividends,
royalties, etc.
Impositions of trade barriers blocking or
discouraging imports
Forex: Role of Government
The monetary and fiscal policies of the
Government can impact the exchange
rate. Examples:
Management of the money supply
Management or creation of inflation
Central bank intervention
Management of unemployment
Economic growth policies
Rates of taxation
Forex: Influence of
Peopleof market performance
Market sentiment: based on
Perception
Expectation of market performance
Explanation may be investor psychology and the
bandwagon effect
Studies suggest they play a major role in short
term movements
Hard to predict
Shock in world politics and social
events can incite investor reaction
“Unexpected events may move markets for a matter of a
few hours or a day at the most. It is peoples perceptions
of fundamentals that move markets.” Stuart Frost,
Technical Analyst
EXAMPLE of Factors affecting Forex
Invester’s Business Daily, Vol.
21, No 170. Friday, Dec 10,
2004 p. A1 (faster-growing
economy in U.S.)
San Jose Mercury News, Dec
4, 2004, p. C-1 (U.S.
employment data weaker than
expected)
Forex: Influence of People
Impact of reactions by FX dealers
based on
What the chartists are showing
What people are saying the
market
What central banks are doing
“The trend is my friend.”
“Buy the rumour, sell the fact”
What are Good Predictors of
Forex Rates?
Evidence suggests that neither PPP nor the International
Fisher Effect are good at explaining short term movements
in exchange rates.
Complications with empirical tests conducted on PPP or
IFE:
Identical “basket of goods” is often not
Time periods for testing are not free from government
intervention, so markets are not as efficient
As part of globalization, capital and financial markets have been
deregulated and cross border flow has increased; this has had
a considerable impact on supply and demand of currency,
which
is not taken into account by PPP.
Transportation costs still a factor
What are Good Predictors of
Forex Rates?
General wisdom is:
Short term (spot rates): supply and demand,
investor psychology/people factor, especially for
floating rates
Longer term: Purchasing Power Parity (changes
in prices based on impacts of changes in
income, interest rate, inflation, actions of the
government, etc.)
Some economists maintain that that the
forward rate is also a good unbiased
predictor of the future spot rate.
Approaches to Forecasting
Fundamental analysis
Draws on economic theory to construct
sophisticated econometric models for predicting
exchange rate movements.
Looks at variables such as inflation rates,
money supply, balance of payments,
etc.
Technical analysis
Uses price and volume data to determine
trends
Special Issue: Currency
Convertibility