U.S.

-China Relations: Great

Power Politics

Nguyen Thanh Trung, Ph.D.

Why do US-China relations matter?
• Obama: “We can’t predict with certainty what
the future will bring, but …we know this: The
relationship between the US and China will
shape the 21st Century” (US-China Strategic dialogue, 2009)
• Liu Mingfu (Lưu Minh Phúc): “It has been
China’s dream for a century to become the
world’s leading nation”. This will happen by
2049. (The China Dream, 2010)
 U.S. Worries about China

U.S.-China Relations: How Should the U.S. Deal with a Rising

Power?
 Maoist Era (1949 - 1976)
• Main foreign policy makers
– Mao Zedong (CCP and PRC Chairman)
– Zhou Enlai (Premier and Foreign Minister)
 Cold War
• Alliance with Soviet Union in 1950s, but against the
US.
– Mao Zedong: “lean on one side”
• Alliance with “Third World” in 1960s: against both
the US and Soviet Union
– Replaced ROC in United Nations in 1971
• Normalize with United States in 1970s, but maintain
the animosity against the Soviet Union
• Alliance with United States in 1980s
 Break the Ice in 1970s
• PRC-USA adversary in 1950s and 1960s
• Growing threat from Soviet Union
• Mao said to Edgar Snow in 1970: ``If Nixon
would come I’ll talk with him”
• “Ping-pong diplomacy” in 1971
Nixon in China (1972)
Ford in China (1975)
 Deng Xiaoping’s Strategies
• One Focus
– economic modernization  boost ties with the
US.
• Two themes: ``peace and development”
– relatively peaceful world is favorable for domestic
economic construction
– trade, investment, and economic cooperation
 Diplomatic Relation (1979)
• 16 Dec 1978: “Joint Communiqué on the
Establishment of Diplomatic Relations
between the People's Republic of China and
the United States of America”
• 01 Jan 1979: P.R. China and the U.S. formally
established diplomatic relations at
ambassadorial level
Deng Xiaoping visits US
 Post-Cold War
• PRC perceives a world with ``only one
superpower but many great powers”
• PRC’s principal national interest defined as
economic modernization
• PRC diplomacy seeks to maintain conditions
conducive to continued economic growth
Can China overtake the US?
China US Trade
China vs US Military Comparison
 U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China

Realist assumption: “China wants power and regional

dominance”
Key Implication: Realists tell us that China must be treated
as a strategic threat, an enemy …

“China cannot rise peacefully” (Mearsheimer)

“[China] is bound to be no strategic friend of the United

States, but a long-term adversary” (Bernstein and Munro)

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 Political scientist John
Mearsheimer
- “China cannot rise peacefully. “
- “… I am not arguing that Chinese behavior alone will drive the
security competition that lies ahead. The United States is also
likely to behave in aggressive ways …”
- “… the United States labored for more than a century to gain
regional hegemony … it has made sure that no other great
power dominated either Asia or Europe the way it dominates
the Western Hemisphere. …”
Reasons to think China’s rise might
not be peaceful
• China might wish to change international order
created and controlled by West
• China might not be trusted by West because it is not
democracy
• Need for raw materials leads to conflict over
resources, sea lanes, etc.
• Internal instability leads to nationalist mobilization
Assessing Power Transition Theory
• Will China overtake the United States in
national power?
• Will China seek to overturn the existing
international or regional order?
• Can a US-China “cold war” be averted?
 Power Transition Theory

• Organski (World Politics)

– A preponderance of power maintains Peace
– There is always a hierarchy of powers
Dominant
power

Great powers (source of

Middle powers challenger)

Small powers
 The logic of transitions to war
Old International Order New International Order

Dominant state

Time

Challenger state

Great power war free zone War-prone zone Great power war free zone

David Lai, US Army War College, The US & China in Transition

(2011)
Conditions to challenge the hegemon
1. 2nd ranked power in demographic and
geographic terms;
2. Enjoys solid economic growth
3. Dissatisfied with existing world order
4. Offers an alternative model

Does China fulfill these conditions?

 Constraints on Chinese Economic
Power
• US will remain much richer on per capita
basis: Chinese per capita income from 7% of
US per capita income today to 54% in 2050.
• China’s economic growth rate will slow.
• Biggest reason: demographics
– Today: 70% of Chinese of working age – support
30% who are young or old
 Chinese Strategic Problems
• Surrounded by 14 countries who need
reassurance
• Depends on oil and other resources imported
along sea lanes controlled by US Navy
• Flashpoints: Taiwan, North Korea, South China
Sea, disputed border with India
• US military has technological lead and
capacity to increase spending
 U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China

Liberal assumption: China wants economic growth and

prosperity. That is, how do liberals answer the question,
“How should the U.S. deal with China?”
Key Implications. China’s energies are directed toward
creating a more prosperous economy, and confrontation
with the United States will not serve this purpose.
The United States, therefore, should treat China as
potential strategic partner; it should build rather than
burn bridges (perhaps by encouraging China’s greater
integration into global institutions), and by recognizing
that China has legitimate interests in Asia

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Reasons to think China’s Rise might
be peaceful
• China has benefitted from existing
international order
• International order built upon institutions that
are “easy to join, hard to overturn” (G. John
Ikenberry)
• China aware that expansionist policies will
produce balancing coalition among neighbors
who can rely upon US for support
 Will US seek to “contain” China?
• US depends on China for goods and finance
• US corporations heavily invested in China
• US needs Chinese cooperation on many issues
• Comparisons to Soviet Union: no ideological
challenge, no serious military challenge, far more
interdependent (80,000 Chinese students in US)
 Favoring Containment:
• Domestic challenges in China will result in aggression
abroad.
• China is establishing new international institutions to
challenge the US.
• Current behavior and statements suggest that China
has abandoned its policy of “peaceful rise” (Deng
Xiaoping’s “biding one’s time” is over)
 Favoring Integration:
• China’s rise has benefited the US, the World and China’s
citizens
• China sometimes plays a helpful role in international
politics – it may yet become a “responsible stakeholder”
• As China becomes more interdependent it becomes less
likely to challenge the existing system
• Containment will simply result in a security
dilemma/arms race
• We cannot expect China to bow to US dictates.
Integration: China CANNOT challenge
the US
Susan Shirk: China is a “fragile superpower”
Domestic challenges include:
•Pollution
•Inequality
•Corruption
•Food scandals
•Domestic unrest
•A slowing economy
 Possible Outcomes
1. US contains China – conflict eventually arises
2. China rises but then fades
3. US integrates/accommodates China and
China continues to rise

Congagement?
 Shaping the Choices of a Rising
China (Thomas Christensen)
• The research question is what China wants and
what the US wants from China.
• A broad national consensus within China is that the
nation should increase its power and influence on
the international stage.
• What policy should China use to increase that
influence: economic growth and greater integration
with regional and global economies? How should
the US influence these Chinese choices.
 How to achieve US Goals
• Two-pronged strategy:
- A strong US presence in Asian security and political affairs
to discourage the use of coercion by China when resolving
its disputes.
- Active diplomatic engagement to encourage China to seek
greater influence through constructive economic and
diplomatic policies.
Not containing China but shaping China’s choices: the United
States needs to consistently remind China that the U.S.
wants Beijing to play a larger role in international politics.
 How to achieve US Goals
• Not containing China but shaping China’s
choices.
• No zero-sum competition with China.
• Dialogue address problems in regions around
the world.
• Signs of real progress amid continuing
challenges
 Serious problems in the bilateral
relations
•Human rights and religion freedom
•Energy, the environment, and global warming
•Military modernization and lack of transparency
•Ensuring long-term stability in the Taiwan strait
•The need for continuity in China policy.
 the United States needs to consistently remind China
that the U.S. wants Beijing to play a larger role in
international politics.
 Questions to Consider
1. Should the US accommodate a new world
order with China as an equal?
2. What is the current US approach? Is this the
correct choice?