“Predicting COVID-19 beahviour in

Colombia”
Dynamic Systems Modeling
Alfredo Díaz Jácome MSc
Universidad del Norte
Mechanical Engineering Department
Context
Challenge

 Stratified information analysis.

 Dynamic Modeling.
 Microbial and Bacterial Growth-like modeling.
 Data adjusting and model parameter estimation.
 Clinical Surge Estimation
Results

 Description of the problema abroad

 Definition of problem boundaries (time, model capacity, considerations, model
characteristics)
 Definition of inital parameters for clinical surge capacity.
 Definition of models for microbial estimation.
 Hypothesis and scenario definition
 Material, resources, sources of information and methods.
 Results
 Conclusions of techincal results.
 Community Advices
 Acknowledgements (Regarding connection of DSM, MechEng and Epi)
Tools and Resources

 Matlab and Simulink:

 Model Parameter Estimation
 Model Sensitivity Analysis
 Data Analysis
 Matlab Covid Resources (available at Mathworks File Exchange)