PROJECT MANAGEMENT

LECTURE 07
PERT

Dr Tasweer Hussain Syed

DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT

NUST COLLEGE OF E & ME
1
 Topics Covered
 CPM Calculations for AOA
and AON Networks
 Slack Time / Float
 Critical Path, Critical Activity
 Practice Problems
 Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (Pert)
 Sample Problems

2
 CPM Calculations

 Provides activity information

 Early start (ES) & late start (LS)

 Early finish (EF) & late finish (LF)
 Slack (S) / Float (FL)

 Identifies critical path

3
Forward and Backward Pass
Forward pass is a technique to move forward
through network diagram. Backward pass is its
opposite.

 Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) use the

forward pass technique.
 Late Start (LS) and Late Finish (LF) use the
backward pass technique.

Note: If the float of the activity is zero, the two

starts (ES and LS) and the two finish (EF and
LF) are the same. Hence, If float of activity is
zero, ES = LS and EF = LF.
4
Early Start and Early Finish Steps

 Begin at starting event and work forward

 ES = 0 for starting activities
 ES is earliest start
 EF = ES + Activity time
 EF is earliest finish
 ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for
non- starting activities

5
Late Start and Late Finish Steps
 Begin at ending event and work
backward
 LF = Maximum EF for ending activities
 LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish
 LS = LF - Activity time
 LS is latest start
 LF = Minimum LS of all successors for
non-ending activities

6
 Slack Time/Float
Slack Time is the
t amount of time an
activity may be delayed without
affecting the project deadline. This is
also referred as float.
 Total Slack Time/Total Float:
Slack Time shared among more than
one activity.
 Free Slack Time/Free Float:
Slack Time associated with a single
activity. 7
 Critical Activity
An activity having zero slack time is called
critical activity.

The concept of critical activities is quite

interesting. It draws the attention of the
project manager to the activities that needs
the closest monitoring.

Any delay of a critical activity leads to an

equivalent delay of the total project.
8
 Critical Path
A path having longest duration
(completion time) in the network is called
critical path.

 Shortest time project can be completed

 Any delay on critical path activities, delays

project

 Critical path activities have zero slack

9
 Explanation of Total Float
Total Float is valid for a chain and not for a
single activity.

In the under discussion example, C and G

have a float of 06 days. This means that the
sum of delays for C and G may run up to 06
days without affecting the project finish time.

Analysis of float is a particularly neat tool for

calculating consequences of schedule
variance. 10
 Explanation of
Free Float

Consider slack time of activity F.

Delaying this activity decreases only
its slack time and does not impact
the slack time of any other activity.
This type of slack time is referred as
free slack / free float.

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CPM Calculations
for AON Network

CPM calculation for AON

Network is same as for
AOA network, but the
calculation of events is
omitted.

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 Legends

Name
Activity
Earliest Earliest
Start ES EF
Finish

Latest LS Duration LF
Start Activity Latest
Finish

Key 13
Problem 3: General Hospital’s Activities
and Predecessors

Activity Description Immediate Duration

Predecessors
A Build internal components - 2
B Modify roof and floor - 3
C Construct collection stack A 2
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B 4
E Build high-temperature burner C 4
F Install pollution control system C 3
G Install air pollution device D, E 5
H Inspect and test F, G 2

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AON Network for General Hospital
Includes Critical Path

A C FF
0 H 2 2 H 4 4 H 7
0 A 2 2 C4 10 13
2 2 3
Slack=0 E H
Slack=0 4 H 8 Slack=6 13 H 15
0 HStart0 F
0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2
0
BB DD Slack=0 G
Start 0 H 3 3 H 7 8 G Slack=0
H 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5
Slack=1 Slack=1 Slack=0
15
 Critical Path for General Hospital

F
A C

Start F H

B D G
s s h ow
Arrow dence
prece ships
l a ti on
re

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 Gantt Chart for General Hospital
Early Start and Finish
General Hospital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16
A Build internal components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection stack
D Pour concrete and install
frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution device
H Inspect and test
17
 Gantt Chart for General Hospital
Late Start and Finish
General Hospital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16
A Build internal components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection stack
D Pour concrete and install
frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution device
H Inspect and test
18
CPM Calculations
for AOA Network

In CPM calculation for AOA

network the calculation of
events is done

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 Activity Scheduling
 An activity’s early starting time equals
the TE of its beginning event: ES = TE.

 An activity’s late finishing time equals

the TL for its ending event: LF = TL.

 From these, Two times are computed using

the expected activity completion time t:
Early finishing time: EF = ES + t.
Late starting time: LS = LF  t.

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 Problem 04

Table for Network Scheduling 21

 Problem 04
Solution - AOA Method

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Early Event Time (TE)

23
Finding TE Values

24
Late Event Time (TL)

25
Finding TL Values

26
Critical Path

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 Problem 04
Solution - AOA Method

Scheduled Times must fall between ES and LF and allow

at least time t to complete.
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 Problem 05
Activity Preceding Activity Duration (weeks)
A - 10
B - 07
C - 12
D A 18
E B 14
F B 13
G C 16
H D, E 12
I F, G 06
CPM Calculations for an AON Network 29
 Problem 06
   
Predecessors
Activity (Dependencies) Time (Weeks)
A - 3

B - 5

C - 7

D A 8

E B 5

F C 5

G E 4

H F 5

I D 6

J G-H 4

Table for Network Scheduling 30

 Exam Question

S. No Activity Duration Predecessor

1 A 2 -

2 B 1 A

3 C 6 A

4 D 6 C

5 E 4 B

6 F 2 A

7 G 3 D, E, F, H

8 H 2 -

Table for Network Scheduling 31

Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Pert calculates the expected durations for all
activities and then does an ordinary CPM calculation
of the network using these expected values as
durations. The expected value and variance can be
calculated as:

TE=(a + b + 4m)/6 (already discussed)

2
Var=V= 1/36 (b - a)

The variance is a measure of uncertainty of the

duration. The larger variance, the larger is the
uncertainty.
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique

1/2
Standard deviation = =(V)

Probability
Pr = Φ (D – T) /

D= deadline / desired completion time

T= project completion time
Φ= normal distribution (from table)
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 Problem 09
(Use Pert Technique on P-04)

Activity Preceding Activity Duration (weeks)

A - 10
B - 07
C - 12
D A 18
E B 14
F B 13
G C 16
H D, E 12
I F, G 06 34
Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
Activity m a b
A 10 9 17
B 7 5 9
C 12 10 20
D 18 16 32
E 14 13 21
F 13 10 16
G 16 15 23
H 12 11 19
I 6 5 7
35
Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
Activity m a b TE
A 10 9 17 11
B 7 5 9 7
C 12 10 20 13
D 18 16 32 20
E 14 13 21 15
F 13 10 16 13
G 16 15 23 17
H 12 11 19 13
I 6 5 7 6 36
 Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
Activity m a b TE Var
A 10 9 17 11 1.78
B 7 5 9 7 .44
C 12 10 20 13 2.78
D 18 16 32 20 7.11
E 14 13 21 15 1.78
F 13 10 16 13 1
G 16 15 23 17 1.78
H 12 11 19 13 1.78
I 6 5 7 6 .11
37
 Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
The network is calculated using the expected
values (TE). The critical path is A-D-H.

Project completion time T= TA+TD+TH

= 11+20+13 = 44

Variance V= Va + Vd + Vh
= 1.78+7.11+1.78= 10.67

38
 Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
The variance as such does not provide much
practically useful information about
uncertainty. It is used to calculate probability,
which can then be used as a decision
parameter.

For example, project manager would like to

know what is the probability of reaching the
40-days deadline calculated by CPM method.

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 Problem 09 (Pert Solution)

1/2 1/2
Standard deviation= = (V) = (10.67)
= 3.266
Probability
Pr = Φ (D – T) /
D= deadline / desired completion time=40
T= project completion time=44
Pr = Φ (40 – 44) / 3.266 The chance of
= Φ (-1.23) = 0.11 meeting the
deadline is 11
percent only.40
 Problem 09 (Pert Solution)
What deadline project manager should give if
he/she wants 90 percent probability of finishing
on or before the deadline?
If this deadline is D, using the formula
0.90 = Φ (D – 44) / 3.266

Φ(1.28)= Φ (D – 44) / 3.266

D= 48.2

R
E
S In order to have 90 percent
U
L
guarantee against a delay, 41
T the deadline should be 49 days.
 Comments on Pert
Program evaluation and review technique (PERT)
allows activity duration with uncertainty. It assumes
that there is no underlying connection leading to
simultaneous duration variation of two or more
activities.

If activity X is delayed, this does not lead to a similar

delay of activity Y. This is, of course, a questionable
assumption. Quite often there are activities that are
connected.
For example, a delay of an activity may be caused by
a shortage of labor. In this case it is reasonable to
believe that this is the case for other activities
performed in the same region. 42
43
Discussion

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