Iranian Nuclear Simulation Report:

The European
INTL 1050 POLT
Edythe Weeks
December 17, 2016
Flag & Background • The European Union (EU) is an
association of European nations formed
in 1993 for the purpose of achieving
political and economic integration.
• Incorporating the European community,
the European Union's member states
are: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal,
Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and
Sweden.
• In 2016, the United Kingdom voted by
referendum to withdraw from
membership in the European Union
(BREXIT).
 Actors
• There are four key institutions which work together to run the EU:
• The European Commission: The executive body of the EU responsible for proposing
legislation, implementing decisions, upholding the EU treaties and managing the day-
to-day business of the European Union.
• The European Parliament: Parliament of the European Union (EU). EU citizens elect its
members once every five years. Together with the Council of Ministers, it is the law-
making branch of the institutions of the Union.
• The Council of the European Union: In the Council, government ministers from each
EU country meet to discuss, amend and adopt laws, and coordinate policies. The
ministers have the authority to commit their governments to the actions agreed on in
the meetings. Together with the European Parliament, the Council is the main
decision-making body of the EU.
• The Court of Justice: The highest court in the European Union in matters of European
Union law.
Representatives
• There are 27 countries in the EU. Political leadership is provided by a team of 27 Commissioners
(one from each EU country) which is led by the Commission President, who decides who is
responsible for which policy area.
• The College of Commissioners, includes the President of the Commission, his seven Vice-
Presidents, including the First Vice-President, and the High-Representative of the Union for
Foreign Policy and Security Policy and 20 Commissioners who are in charge of portfolios.
• The Commission business is performed by its staff (economists, lawyers, etc.), who are organized
into departments known as Directorates-General (DGs), each responsible for a specific policy area.
• In order to appoint the President, the candidate is put forward by national leaders in the European
Council, taking account of the results of the European Parliament elections. He/ she needs the
support of a majority of members of the European Parliament in order to be elected.
• When selecting the Representatives, The Presidential candidate selects potential Vice-Presidents
and Commissioners based on suggestions from the EU countries. The list of nominees has to be
approved by national leaders in the European Council.
• The nominee appears before the European Parliament to explain their vision and answer
questions. Parliament then votes on whether to accept the nominees as a team. Finally, they are
appointed by the European Council, by a qualified majority.
• The current Commission's term of office runs until 31 October 2019.
The Commission

• The Commission is composed of the College of Commissioners of

28 members, including the President and Vice-Presidents. The
Commissioners, one from each EU country, are the Commission's
political leadership during a 5-year term. Each Commissioner is
assigned responsibility for specific policy areas by the President.
The President: • The President is the head of the
European Commission. According to the
Jean Claude Juncker Treaties, he decides on the organization
of the Commission, assigns portfolios to
members of the Commission and has the
power to make changes at any time. The
President also determines the
Commission's policy agenda, defending
the general European interest. The
President was elected by the European
Parliament on the basis of his Political
Guidelines that were formed drawing on
his contacts with the parliamentary
committees and the strategic guidelines
for the Union presented by the European
Council of June 27, 2014.
Map
of EU
Countries

Note:

*The UK is no longer
part of the EU since
2016
(BREXIT)

*Croatia is now part

of the EU
 EU’s Dissuassion Efforts & Strategy
• The position of the EU against Iran originated as the implementation of the
positions of three member states. There are still many member states that
have different position against Iran on a bilateral level and at the end they
undermine credibility of EU ́s dissuasion efforts. This is a prime example of
the conflict that comes with the union of countries.
• The EU’s dissuasion strategy relies on two basic procedures in an effort to
dissuade Iran from doing the activity that the EU doesn’t want. The strategy
is an attempt to raise the costs of undesired activity and the second is the
reduction of the expected gains from the realization of unwanted activity.
 EU and Iran’s Time Line of Events
• September 2003: Nuclear Program Is Suspended Due to the American invasion of Iraq, which
was originally justified by Bush. Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, Ayatollah Khamenei orders
a suspension of work on what appear to be weapons-related technologies, although he
allows uranium enrichment efforts to continue.
• January 2006: Natanz Production Is Restarted Iran resumes uranium enrichment at Natanz after
negotiations with European and American officials collapse.
• September 2009: Warning on Nuclear ‘Deception’ American, British and French officials
declassify some of their most closely held intelligence and describe a multiyear Iranian effort,
tracked by spies and satellites, to build a secret uranium enrichment plant deep inside a mountain.
• February 2010: Work on Warhead The United Nations’ nuclear inspectors declare for the first time
that they have extensive evidence of “past or current undisclosed activities” by Iran’s military to
develop a nuclear warhead.
• June 2010: U.N. Approves New Sanctions The United Nations Security Council levels its fourth
round of sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program. The sanctions curtail military purchases, trade
and financial transactions carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which controls
the nuclear program.
• December 2011: Natanz Plant Recovers After a dip in enriched uranium production in 2010 because of
the cyberattacks, Iranian production recovers. While the United States and Israel never acknowledged
responsibility for the cyberprogram, Olympic Games, some experts argue that it set the Iranians back a
year or two. Others say that estimate overstates the effect.
• May 2012: Talks With West Falter After a brief spurt of optimism, talks between Iran and six world
powers on its disputed nuclear program fail to produce a breakthrough in Baghdad. The United States,
Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany wanted a freeze on Iranian production of uranium enriched
to 20 percent purity, which is considered a short step from bomb grade.
• February 2013: U.S. Bolsters Sanctions A new round of American sanctions take effect which state
that any country that buys Iranian oil must put the purchase money into a local bank account. Iran
cannot repatriate the money and can use it only to buy goods within that country. Violators risk severe
penalties in doing business with the United States. Oil exports from Iran have already dropped by
a million barrels a day.
• May 2013: Iran Is Seen Advancing Nuclear Bid The I.A.E.A. says Iran has made significant progress
across the board in its nuclear program, while negotiations with the West dragged on this spring. But it
said that it has not gone past the "red line" that Israel’s leaders have declared could trigger military
action.
• September 2013: First Direct US-Iran Talk Since 1979 President Obama says he has spoken by phone
with President Hassan Rouhani, the first direct contact between the leaders of Iran and the United
States since 1979. Mr. Obama, speaking in the White House briefing room, said the two leaders
discussed Iran’s nuclear program and said he was persuaded there was a basis for an agreement.
• January 2014: Negotiators Put Final Touches on Iran Accord Iran and a group of six
world powers complete a deal that will temporarily freeze much of Tehran’s nuclear
program starting Jan. 20, in exchange for limited relief from Western economic
sanctions.
• November 2014: Role for Russia Gives Iran Talks a Possible Boost Iran tentatively
agrees to ship much of its huge stockpile of uranium to Russia for conversion into
specialized fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Iran’s only commercial
reactor. The agreement is potentially a major breakthrough in talks that have until
now been deadlocked.
• November 2014: U.S. and Allies Extend Iran Nuclear Talks by 7 Months A yearlong
effort to reach an enduring accord with Iran to dismantle large parts of its nuclear
infrastructure fell short, forcing the United States and its allies to declare a seven-
month extension, but with no clear indication of how they plan to bridge fundamental
differences.
• April 2015: Iran Agrees to Nuclear Limits, But Key Issues Are Unresolved Iran and
the European Union say they have reached an understanding about next steps, but
key issues need to be resolved before a final agreement by June 30.
 Political Agenda
• In their reaction to the Iranian nuclear crisis, The EU believed that dialogue and negotiations are
the best means for reaching an agreement, followed by multilateral sanctions completed by
unilateral sanctions. During its intervention, the EU paid special attention to the position of the
UN Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency and the international community.
The EU’s involvement had,as a base, the respect for and wish to preserve the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. These instruments cannot be considered rational but a consequence of
the international identity of the European Union.
• Since 2003, the High Representative has led diplomatic efforts between the E3/EU+3 and Iran
which led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Act on Iran’s nuclear program (JCPOA) in Vienna on
July 14, 2015. The JCPOA will ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful and if
implemented, provides for the comprehensive lifting of EU, UN and US nuclear related sanctions.
• Following legislative reviews of the JCPOA in the US and Iran, Adoption Day was declared which
set in motion the implementation of the provisions of the JCPOA. On Adoption Day the EU
adopted the legislative framework to lift all of its nuclear-related economic and financial
sanctions then what followed: Implementation day and Transition Day.
• Under the JCPOA, a Joint Commission was established and consisted of all members of the
E3/EU+3 and Iran. The High Representative will coordinate the work of the Joint Commission
which will address potential problems and disputes.
The EU and Iran

• Iran and Europe have a long history together and individual Member States all
have their own specific relationship with Iran. The country which has had the
most stable relationship (sustaining the conversation and exchange) with the
Islamic Republic of Iran is Germany. This has been particularly important during
times when the general EU relationship with Iran has been frosty. For some time
the EU’s overall policy towards Iran became a function of its relationship with
the US, especially following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iranian policy
towards the EU, in turn, carried the weight of its lack of a relationship with the
U.S.
• After further failed attempts at talks, the ‘Iran file’ was referred to the UNSC.
Beginning with UNSCR 1696 in July 2006, a number of UNSC resolutions
(UNSCRs 1737 and 1747 in 2007; 1803 and 1835 in 2008; and 1887 in 2009)
constituted the legal basis for sanctions against the Islamic Republic. But
sanctions were still a means to an end, not an end in itself, and a new offer of
dialogue was made by Javier Solana in 2008.
• This offer was an effort under the EU, the US, China and Russia. After
subsequent negotiations in 2009 failed, UNSCR 1929 (June 2010) - the most
comprehensive UN-led sanctions effort - was passed. The EU added its own set
of sanctions and restrictions, which were regularly updated. In 2012, the EU
took restrictions one step further with an EU-wide import boycott on Iranian
oil, implemented in July 2012.
• The EU, sustained a diplomatic track for negotiations between the E3+3
(Germany, France, Britain, Russia, China and the United States) and Iran. The
breakthrough came with a change in approach by the Obama administration in
2012 and the election of a new Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, in June 2013.
The Obama administration acknowledged that the goal of making Tehran
abandon its nuclear enrichment program was unrealistic. With the new tone set
by the new Iranian negotiating team under Foreign Minister Dr Javad Zarif, the
negotiators made headway. In November 2013, the P5+1 and Iran agreed to the
Joint Plan of Action, which outlined the future negotiation process and the
possible end goal of a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. In
July 2015, the intensive negotiations led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action, which details how the Iranian nuclear program is capped and reduced in
exchange for sanctions relief by the UN, EU, and eventually, the United States.
• In April 2016, the EU High Representative visited Tehran together with several
Commissioners and officials so they could pursue a better and broadened
exchange and relationship with Iran.
 EU Interests in Iran
• The Middle East states neighbor the EU. War and instability generate refugee flows and hardship
that may result in violence and ideological extremism. It is in the EU's general interest that the
Middle East is stable. The interests and values of the EU coincide. Tradeand a fostering of peaceful
tools for conflict resolution are vital means applied within the European Union, and should be
increasingly applied to neighboring states and regions.
• Iran is a vital player in the Middle East region. As a result, Iran; a relatively stable state in the
region, with a vibrant society that includes elements of democratic rule, is a potential partner in
creating a more stable and harmonious Middle East which will benefit the European Union
• It is in the interest of both parties to develop closer cooperation in areas such as environment,
climate change, migration management, transport and energy, education and humanitarian
issues. Using closer trade and energy ties with Iran to consolidate and integrate the entire region’s
economic development will also help the EU address other critical issues.
• The EU is interested in contributing to the growth and availability of Iranian gas as an engine for
sustainable regional development and potentially a future source of energy for the EU itself. In the
medium term, the focus should be on the region and the premise that a regional cohesion based
on energy interconnectivity will provide the world with the needed energy resources and also ease
some of the tensions that may cause uncertainties in this important energy hub.
Global Problems
• From the EU’s point of view, economic and political instruments as well
as long- term engagement are considered to be the best solution when
it comes to dealing with cases of nuclear proliferation. The European
Union does not try from the start to solve a problem with threats but
always tries to attract the other by offering incentives. In this context,
the European Union has tried to give as much oxygen to Iran as it could
in order to persuade it to abandon some parts of its nuclear program.
The EU kept negotiations open for as long as Iran did not restart
enriching uranium and also refused to send Iran’s case to be solved by
the UNSC because it considered that it would not be productive and
would have harmed the negotiation process (Kile 2005, 13).
Allies and Opponents
• Allies: United States & UN

• No direct opponents mentioned.

The EU’s Position and Iran Today
• Today, combatting Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq in particular,
presents the most immediate opportunity for dialogue with Iran and limited
collaboration with the EU. Iraq’s stability is an important concern for Iranians,
who still remember the two countries’ devastating eight-year war in the
1980’s. Iran sees ISIS as a threat. Today, with the removal of a barrier to
dialogue with Iran and the increasingly normal nature of dialogue between the
EU and Iran, coordination on the fight against ISIS could become a more
sustained low- level cooperation.
Desired Outcomes, Short Term & Long Term Goals

• A more regular between the European Parliament and the Iranian Majlis. The
interaction between these two elected bodies has been very irregular and
often been hostage to the overall international political climate.
• A better relationship with Iran.
Worst Case Scenario
• The worst case scenario of Iran gaining a nuclear arsenal
would be a nuclear war. Multiple actors are expected to use
destructive and tragic nuclear weapons in response to the
nuclear weapons deployed against other states.
Summary
• The European Union, specifically EU3 (Great Britain, France, Germany), role was that of
mediator in the Iran nuclear crisis. During talks the EU message between Iran and the
international community was that military action against Iran would not be an acceptable
method to achieve the desired outcome. The EU’s message of diplomacy and peace was
consistent, assertive when necessary, and effective. The role gave the EU proven
credibility as a strong and independent actor for these negotiations, as its own
institution, and as a foreign policy relations builder.
• The EU wanted to keep trade open for access to Iran’s oil and gas energy reserves.
Economic and political interests would be sustainable if Iran demonstrated commitment
and complied with terms of the deal to suspend nuclear arms. The Huffington Post stated
that the EU leans toward a multilateralism or collective approach. EU’s determination
and continued efforts were shown in 2013 when a committee of 8 European Parliament
representatives traveled to Iran to meet with prominent Iranians, from conservatives to
activists. Achieving a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear crisis is the ultimate goal.
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