Section 1.

How and Why the Climate is Changing

1.2. The Causes of Climate Change

USAID LEAF
Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development
Module: Basic Climate Change (BCC)
Basic Climate Change (BCC) Module Team Acknowledgements
Basic Climate Change Module Team
Name Affiliation Name Affiliation
Developers
Michael Furniss; Co-Lead US Forest Service David Ganz, Chief of Party USAID LEAFBangkok
Bunleng Se; Co-Lead Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAFBangkok
Chan Hoy Yen Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Naroon Waramit Kasetsart University, Thailand
Kalyan Ly Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Phi Thi Hai Ninh Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Somvang Phimmavong National University of Laos Lam Ngoc Tuan Dalat University, Vietnam
Latsamy Boupha National University of Laos Le Hai Yen Dalat University, Vietnam
Sokha Kheam Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Nguyen Le Ai Vinh Vinh University, Vietnam
Ahmad Makmom Bin Abdullah Universiti Putra Malaysia Nguyen Thi Viet Ha Vinh University, Vietnam
Jirawan Kitchaicharoen Chiang Mai University, Thailand Nicole Kravec USAID LEAFBangkok
Thaworn Onpraphai Chiang Mai University, Thailand Hour Limchhun USAID LEAFCambodia
Patthra Pengthamkeerati Kasetsart University, Thailand Le Nhu Bich Dalat University, Vietnam
Kieu Thi Duong Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Somsy Gnophanxay National University of Laos
Truong Quoc Can Vietnam Forests and Deltas Program Karen Castilow University of Virginia
Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Geoffrey Blate US Forest Service
Mokbul Morshed Ahmad Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand Elizabeth Lebow US Forest Service
Ly Thi Minh Hai USAID LEAFVietnam Kent Elliott US Forest Service
Danielle Morvan Tulane University, New Orleans Ann Rosecrance California State University., Northridge

Reviewers
Andrea Tuttle Freelance consultant Somsy Gnophanxay National University of Laos
Sermkiat Jomjunyoug Chiang Mai University, Thailand Jamil Tajam Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Sampan Singharajwarapan Chiang Mai University, Thailand Ajimi Bin Jawan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
Chea Eliyan Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Ratcha Chaichana Kasetsart University, Thailand
 I. HOW AND WHY THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
1.1. Introduction to Climate Science and Climate Change
1.2. The Causes of Climate Change
1.3. Climate Intensification: Floods and Droughts
1.4. Climate Modeling
Basic Climate Change (BCC)
II. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PEOPLE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
2.1. Introduction to Climate Change Impacts
2.2. Sea Level Rise
2.3. Climate Change and Water Resources: Effects
2.4. Climate Change and Food Security
2.5. Climate Change and Human Health
2.6. Climate Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
III. REPONSES AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
3.1. Climate Change and Forest Management
3.2. Climate Change and Water Resources: Response and Adaptation
3.3. Principles and Practice of Climate Vulnerability Assessment
3.4. Dealing with Uncertainties in Climate Change
3.5. Introduction to Ecosystem Services
3.6. Introduction to REDD+
3.7. Bioenergy and the Forest
3.8. Communications and Engagement
IV. CURRICULUM MODUL RESOURCES AND TOOLS
4.1. Curated Video Collection
4.2. Literature – Annotated Bibliography
4.3. Climate Change Glossary
4.4. Reading and Video Assignments and Problem Sets
Learning objectives

At the end of this session, learners will be able to:

 Explain and evaluate past climate investigations and tools to
detect its change over time
 Analyze causes and factors (natural and human induced)
contributing to climate change
 Describe past, current, and future concentrations of
greenhouse gases (GHG), their effect on Earth’s climate, and
humans’ contributions to GHG emissions
 Identify major sectors and human activities contributing
globally and regionally to GHG emissions
 Outline
 Increasing global temperatures
 Weather vs. Climate
 Natural climate variability
 How the climate is changing: Observations and trends
 The Greenhouse Effect and greenhouse gasses
 Basics of climate and radiative forcing
 Evidence of climate warming. Climate data and research: How do we
know?
 Scientific consensus
 Climate feedbacks
 Exercises and reference
Optional Assigned Readings and Question
Sets

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hare, Bill; Serdeczny,

Olivia; Schaeffer, Michiel; Adams, Sophie; Baarsch,
Florent; Schwan, Susanne; Coumou, Dim;
Robinson, Alexander; Vieweg, Marion; Piontek,
Franziska; Donner, Reik; Runge, Jakob; Rehfeld,
Kira; Rogelj, Joeri; Perette, Mahe; Menon, Arathy;
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Bondeau, Alberte;
Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia; Schewe, Jacob;
Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Rocha, Marcia.
2013. Turn down the heat : climate
extremes, regional impacts, and the case
for resilience
Washington DC ; World Bank.http
://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17862361
/turn-down-heat-climate-extremes-regional-impacts-case-res
ilience-full-report
Beginning the conversation

Discussion or Homework question:

 What past weather related events have you experienced?
List at least 5.
 How did they affect your plans or actions?
Global Temperatures 1880 – 2010
Goddard Institute for Space Studies

The 15 hottest years on record all occurred since

1990
The Medieval warm period, Little Ice Age,
and now
Changes can be extremely abrupt

Greenland Ice Cores:

Abrupt 4C (7F) increases
in mean temperature over
1-3 yrs;
Cumulative 15C (27F)
warming over 40 yrs
Climate versus weather

 Climate: A statistical description of the mean and variability of

temperature, precipitation, wind, etc. over a period of time
ranging from months to thousands or millions of years
 Weather: The present condition of the above elements,
typically over periods up to two weeks
 Climate change: A change in the state of the mean and/or
variability of these elements that can be identified statistically
and that persists over a longer period, typically decades or
longer.
What is “Climate” Anyway?

CLIMATE
A statistical description
of weather for a region

WEATHER
Daily variations in temperature,
precipitation, wind, and so on
“Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get”
Weather vs. Climate

“Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about

weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer is
about climate.”
Charles Wohlforth. The Whale and the Supercomputer

Moscow, Russia Hanoi, Vietnam

Weather versus Climate

 Weather – the specific conditions of the atmosphere at a

particular place and time, measured in terms of variables
that include temperature, precipitation, cloudiness,
humidity, air pressure, and wind.
 Climate – the long-term average of conditions in the
atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets and sea ice described
by statistics, such as means and extremes.
 Natural climate variability

 Earth’s Natural Climate System

 Climate Changes over Time,
Often in Recurring Patterns or
Modes
 Modes are Nested: Annual,
Decadal, Century, Millennial
Scales
 Different Physical Mechanisms
Drive Different Modes
 Changes in Climate can be
Gradual, Directional, Abrupt,
or Reversible
1.Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
(10,000-100,000 yr periods)
 6°-10°C (10°-18°F) mean global
temperature differences
 CO2 & CH4 cycle as well as temperature
 Caused by earth’s changing relationship
to sun C. Millar
2. Century-Scale Cycles (200-1000 yr
periods)
 1°-3°C (1.8° – 5.4F°) mean changes in Little Ice Age
1450-1900 AD
global temperature
 Triggered by changes in Sun’s activity
 Variably expressed in different regions

Medieval Anomaly
900-1300 AD C. Millar

C. Millar

NASA
3. Decadal & Annual-Scale Cycles (2 to 45 yr
periods)
 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 25 - 45 yr cycle
 El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) 2 - 8 yr cycle
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

University of Washington
Driven by changes in
ocean circulation

ENSO

NOAA
 How do Current Changes Compare to
Natural Climatic Variability?

UNUSUAL in 21st CENTURY:

 Extreme warming
 Rates of change
 High atmospheric CO2
 Human footprint,
population growth
One thousand years of temperature

Medieval
warm Little
period Ice
Age
Increasing global mean surface
temperatures
Global mean temperatures are rising
rapidly
Increasing global temperatures

The 15 hottest years on record all occurred since

1990
Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
Keeling Curve with annual pattern
 Why the annual cycle in CO2 concentration?
Earth - Array of Land and Oceans

More
Land
Hawai’i

Less
Land
 METHANE: 23X CO2
Fossil fuel production
Livestock
CH4 Rice cultivation
Burning biomass = wood etc.
Waste management

But
CO2 is not the only gas
increasing since 1750
N2 O
NOx : 296X CO2
Fossil fuel combustion
Fertilizers
Nitrogen fixing plants
Earth’s Greenhouse Effect

Learn more about the greenhouse effect! Earth Guide at the Scripps Oceanographic Institute
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/02_1.shtml
Earth radiative energy balance
Actual Greenhouse vs. the Greenhouse
Effect - similar but not quite the same
GHE#1 - naturalEarth’s Natural Greenhouse Effect
 Human-caused Global Warming
GHE#2 - humans
 GHE#3 - text
The science of global warming is based on well-understood
physical principles. There is NO scientific debate about this!
Due to human activities, there are now 40% more
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than there were a few
hundred years ago.
The Earth has already warmed as the consequence of this,
and scientists expect that the next 20 to 100 years the
world will warm a lot more!
GHGs trap heat
Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat
What is the most important atmospheric
component to us and what is the history?
Permanent vs. variable gases
Atmospheric lifespan of greenhouse gases
 Current GHG concentrations 2007
Current greenhouse gas concentrations
Pre-1750 Recent Absolute Percentage Increased
Gas tropospheric tropospheric increase increase radiative
concentration concentration since 1750 since 1750 forcing
(W/m2)

Carbon dioxide
(CO2) 280 ppm 392.6 ppm 112.6 ppm 40.2% 1.85

Methane (CH4) 1874 ppb / 1174 ppb / 167.7% /

700 ppb 0.51
1758 ppb 1058 ppb 151.1%

Nitrous oxide 324 ppb / 54 ppb / 20.0% /

(N2O) 270 ppb 0.18
323 ppb 53 ppb 19.6%

Tropospheric 25 ppb 34 ppb 9 ppb 36% 0.35

ozone (O3)

For an interactive table of GHGs: http

://chemlinks.beloit.edu/warming/pages/molecule.html
Carbon dioxide concentrations
What is a metric ton of CO2?
One metric ton (MT) of CO2e (1000 KG / 2204.62lbs) is equivalent to any
one of the following:
• CO2 emissions from 114 gallons of gasoline consumed
• Emissions from a typical passenger vehicle driven 2,134 miles
• CO2 emissions from 10% of the annual energy use in one home

App 27 ft cube
How much CO2 do we emit?

Gt    =  gigatonne  =  109 metric tonnes,  (MT = the mass

of one cubic kilometre 106 of water).  Instead of Gt, some
authors use Pg  =  petagram  =  1015 grams.
Global emissions by gas
Global emissions by sector
Sectors and GHGs - Global 2005
2008 Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion and some industrial processes

Source: National CO2
 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2008.
Per-capita CO2 Emissions
Imagine a hot and sunny summer day

 You hold your hand up to the sun.

What do you feel and why?

 Would you wear white or

black? Why?

Alan Journet
On the same hot and sunny day you find yourself
walking outside with bare feet.
 Where would you prefer
to walk and why?

Alan Journet
The atmosphere is heated from the
bottom

 Therefore, it is warmest near the

bottom, and gets colder with
increasing elevation
 Except the stratosphere is heated
from the top – ozone absorption
of incoming UV
 Mesosphere and Thermosphere
have little impact on the
biosphere.
Natural Climate variability

At the millennium
scale, the
Milankovich
cycles and GHG
are largely
responsible for
the variation, and
thus the glacial
(ice ages) and
interglacial
periods.
Variations in Solar radiation

 Changes in sunlight may occur long- and short-time frame.

 Sunspots are caused by magnetic storm that appear as dark,
relatively cool regions on the Sun’s surface, and it is short-term
variation.
 Rapid changes in insolation can be caused by clouds, dust and ash
(e.g. volcanic eruptions).
 The variation in the intrinsic output of the Sun does not vary
greatly, and is clearly not sufficient to account for the variation of
Earth’s temperature, either in the past or current observations.
 But, the amount of heat the Earth receives, and the timing
depends a lot on…
Milankovitch Cycle

A 100,000 year temperature cycle results from 3 component

cycles:
105,000 year cycle in shape of Earth’s orbit of sun-
Eccentricity
Milankovitch Cycle
41,000 year cycle in the tilt (obliquity of ecliptic) of Earth
21.1o-24.5o around 23.5o.
 Milankovitch Cycle
21,000 year cyclic advance

Precession of the equinoxes – date when sun is over equator…. Jan  Feb 
March….. January.
Milankovitch Cycle

Consequence:
Inconsequential change in total solar radiation – but
 A cycle in severity of seasons
 From warm summers/cold winters to cool
summers/mild winters
 Glaciation occurs when summer is not warm enough to
melt winter snows.
Coincidence in the three cycles: Current orbital
cycles should be driving the Earth cooler now
When all the Milankovitch cycles (alone) are taken into account, the present trend
should be towards a cooler climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with extending
glaciation.
Illinois Glaciation
Wisconsin Glaciation
Animations of Milankovich Cycles

59
Global radiative forcings

 Radiative forcing is defined as the difference of radiant energy

received by the earth and energy radiated back to the space.
 Radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of
watts per square meter of earth’s surface.
 A positive forcing (more incoming energy) warms the earth’s
system, while negative forcing (more outgoing energy) cools
it.
 Causes of radiative forcing include changes in insolation
(incident solar radiation) and in concentration of radiatively
active gases and aerosols.

60
Estimation of global radiative forcing
For 650,000 years, the CO2 ––
Temperature relationship has held

Temp
Proxy
Correlation between CO2 and temperature
390

?
 Plate tectonics influences climate over
very long time frames
The Long-Term Carbon Cycle
Volcanoes
release CO2
Metamorphism of
Weathering Weathering
older carbonates
consumes Sedimentation consumes CO2,
releases CO2
CO2 of CO3 carried to sea
Sediments
Ocean crust Continental
CO2 released at crust
uc nts

mid-ocean
d
bd e
te
su dim

ridges
Se

CO2 carried to
ocean ridges
Asthenosphere
Plate tectonics

 Plate tectonics affects the climate over a very long-term

scale:
 Climate is also affected by whether the continents are
together or apart.
 When plate tectonic processes lower sea level, exposed
limestone or carbonate rocks undergo a weathering
process releasing CO2 into the atmosphere.
Plate tectonics and related volcanism

 Most volcanic eruptions are caused by plate tectonic

movement, leading to release aerosols into atmosphere
which reduce global insolation and decrease global average
temperature.
 Flood basalt eruptions are extremely rare, but strongly
potential to climate effects. These propel ash, dust, and
aerosols into the atmosphere, block sunlight and cause global
cooling. Together, the eruptions release CO2 leading to global
warming.
El Niño – La Niña Cycles

For unknown reasons

 In El Niño Years:
 The easterly winds become westerlies,
 Ocean current reverses,
 Thus, the upwelling ceases,
 Tropical water flows N. up west
coast of U.S.,
 and tropical fish move up the coast.
El Niño y La Niña

Video clip on

El Niño and La Niña

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FVZrw7bk1w
El Niño, La Niña, and Normal

Animation of
normal, El Niño, and La Niña Conditions
http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geoanimations
/animations/26_NinoNina.html
Normal and El Niño Conditions
La Niña

Coastal C.A.
Pacific Ocean –
Warm:
= red / white
Cool:
= blue / purple
 El Niño

Coastal C.A.
Pacific Ocean –
Warm:
= red / white
Cool:
= blue / purple
Ocean temperatures in El Niño and La Niña
conditions

73
Ocean temperatures during ENSO

NOAA
Atmospheric and Pacific ocean conditions
in normal and El Niño years

75
El Niño events alternate with La Niña

Warm Years
Among the consequences of El Niño
conditions

 Increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and

in Peru, causing destructive flooding
 Regional sea level rise or fall due to anomalous ocean
temperatures
 Drought in the West Pacific, SE Asia.
 Sometimes producing devastating brush fires in Australia.
La Niña Phenomenon and its
consequences for SE Asia

 Warm water in western Pacific accumulates much more than

in usual condition, leading to higher temperatures and more
water and energy in the local atmosphere.
 Western Pacific, SEA, and Australia have more rain,
meanwhile, East Pacific and South America get drier.
La Niña events occurred in 1999-2000, 1988, 1974-1975, and
1954-1956
Discussion Questions

After learning introduction to climate science and climate

change section, we would like to take you to focus on:
 What are the causes of climate change?
 Write down what you know about causes of climate
change.
Ice Cores
 Ice cores are samples of ice taken from
glaciers .
 Air bubbles, dust, and oxygen isotopes
get trapped in glacial ice, and can be
used to analyze past climate.
 Glaciers become thicker over time, so
the deeper you drill the older the ice is.
 Glaciers obtain one layer each year, Heidi Roop

so counting layers is like counting

years.
 Ice core data can extend back
hundreds of thousands of years.
Exercise – Earth Surface Temperatures

Temperature trends in SE Asia

 Go to this site: Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project
 In small groups, determine and discuss:
 The temperature trends in your country and neighboring countries. What is similar?
What are the differences?
 Look at the page for all of SE Asia. How does your country differ?
 Look at some of the pages for big cities, such as Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh
City. Are these different than the trends for the country and region as a
whole? Why?
 The daily maximum temperature trends in your country and neighboring
countries
 The differences in the number of temperature monitoring stations in each
country. How does this influence the data, and our assessment of trends?
IPCC IV-2007 Conclusions

Warmest 12 years on record

Warming of the climate
system:
 Increasing in global
average air and ocean
temperatures
 Rising global average
sea level
 Reductions of snow and
ice
Group discussion

 Why does a trend of increasing CO2 lead to increased

temperature?

 What is the evidence?

 How reliable are the measurements of CO2

concentration in the atmosphere?
Climate Data and research

Paleo climate
Sources of paleo climate information:
 Ice Cores
 Tree Rings
 Geomorphic features
 Fossils
 Ocean Sediment, and
 Others
Ice Cores (cont.)

 Ice cores can reveal temperature,

precipitation, and gas composition
of the lower atmosphere.
 They also can indicate volcanic
eruptions, solar variability, sea-
surface productivity and a variety
of other climate indicators.
Ice Cores (cont.)
 Deuterium (a hydrogen isotope) can be used to reconstruct
past temperature changes.
 In Antarctica, a cooling of 1°C results in a 9 ppm (parts per
million) decrease in deuterium.
The ratio of oxygen isotopes, Climate related parameters
O18/O16, in ice is an indication determined from ice cores

of temperature at the time Ice Core Climate Parameter

Property
the air was trapped. Smaller
CO2, CH4 Greenhouse gasses
values of O18/O16 indicate
SO2, ash Volcanic eruptions
warmer temperatures.
Be10, Cl36 Solar activity
Changes over 600 millennia
O18/O16 , Temperature
are now known from deuterium
Greenland ice cores. thickness Precipitation
Tree Rings

 In temperate regions where there is a distinct growing season, trees

generally produce one ring a year.
 Since tree growth is influenced by climatic conditions, patterns in tree-
ring widths, density, and isotopic composition reflect variations in
climate. 
 Trees can grow to be hundreds to thousands of years old and can
contain annually-resolved records of climate for centuries to millennia.
 If a tree is fossilized, the age of the tree
(how long ago it died) can be
determined by examining isotopes.
 Isotope ratios are also indicative of
temperature change.
Ocean Sediments

 Billions of tons of sediment

accumulate in the ocean and lake
basins each year.
 Scientist drill cores of sediment
from ocean and lake floors.
 Ocean and lake sediments
include tiny fossils and chemicals
that are used to interpret past
climates.
 Proxy data (climatic proxies)
Proxy or indirect data Source: Pittock, 200
Atmospheric Structure

 The pressure, temperature, and composition of the

atmosphere vary with height above Earth’s surface, as well as
with location on Earth’s surface.
 In the lower regions of the atmosphere, known as the
troposphere, the composition is relatively independent of
altitude, and variations are primarily of pressure and
temperature, which decrease with altitude.
 In the region known as the stratosphere, beginning at about
10 km altitude (the tropopause), pressure continues to
decrease with altitude, but temperature increases with
altitude.
Warming causes increased rate of
evaporation, which causes more warming

 Warming climate leads

to an increased
evaporation rate.
 More water vapor in the
atmosphere.
 Water vapor is a
greenhouse gas so
causes even more => (This is known as positive feedback loop)
warming.
Positive feedbacks increase warming
The science is now clear

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”

"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures

since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.“

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

Scientific consensus on climate change

+35%
 Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse
gases increase the heat capacity of our
atmosphere, and thus warm the planet.
 Human activities have increased the
+142
%
concentration of the major greenhouse
gases since ~1750.
 Average global temperature has increased
since 1906. Warming since the 1950s very
+18%
likely (>90% chance) due to human
increases in GHG.

Figure source: IPCC

Discussion Questions

 List and explain possible causes of climate change

 What is the greenhouse effect?
 Explain why the average temperature on Earth would be 0
degrees Fahrenheit without the layer of greenhouse gases.
 What natural phenomena produce greenhouse gases?
 What are some everyday activities that result in carbon
dioxide being released into the atmosphere?
 Explain the relationship between increased amounts of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global warming.
Exercises and Problems

 Estimates of regional warming due to increased greenhouse gases

are generally larger over land areas than over oceans. What might
be the reasons for this?
 Prepare a one-minute explanation of the greenhouse effect that
would be understandable to your grandmother or grandfather.
 How is the greenhouse effect in the Earth's atmosphere different
than in an actual greenhouse?
 Runaway Greenhouse Effect Exercise:
http://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/roleplaying/examples/auastro.ht
ml
 More Exercises related to the greenhouse effect:
http://www.camelclimatechange.org/resources/view/167281
Optional Assigned Readings and Question
Sets

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hare, Bill; Serdeczny,

Olivia; Schaeffer, Michiel; Adams, Sophie; Baarsch,
Florent; Schwan, Susanne; Coumou, Dim;
Robinson, Alexander; Vieweg, Marion; Piontek,
Franziska; Donner, Reik; Runge, Jakob; Rehfeld,
Kira; Rogelj, Joeri; Perette, Mahe; Menon, Arathy;
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Bondeau, Alberte;
Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia; Schewe, Jacob;
Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Rocha, Marcia.
2013. Turn down the heat : climate
extremes, regional impacts, and the case
for resilience
Washington DC ; World Bank.http
://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17862361
/turn-down-heat-climate-extremes-regional-impacts-case-res
ilience-full-report
 Assigned Reading
Chapter 2 – The Global Picture pages 7-13

1. Define equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). What is the current estimated range for ECS?
2. How does the rate of warming over the past decade compare to the rate of warming in earlier decades?
Does this tell us something about the sensitivity of the climate system?
3. Thus far, how well have models predicted rates of warming? Rates of sea level rise?
4. Under a business as usual scenario what level of warming are we likely to reach by 2100? Can global
mean temperatures be held below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels?
5. Why might warming be stronger in the Northern Hemisphere?
6. Explain what a warming of 5 sigma means.
7. Based on the way that this publication determines normalized warming, what regions of the globe are
likely to experience the highest normalized warming as well as the strongest increases in heat extremes?
8. At what sigma level is a region said to shift into a new climate regime where the coldest months are
substantially warmer than the hottest months relative to 1951–80? Are such shifts seen under RCP2.6?
RCP8.5?
9. Looking at figure 2.7 describe how the likelihood of 3-sigma and 5-sigma events differ for RCP 2.6 and
RCP 8.5.
World Bank. 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World
Must Be Avoided. Washington, DC. © World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11860
Assigned reading:
Chapter 2 – The Global Picture pages 13-16
BCC sections: Climate Intensification: Floods and Droughts, Sea Level Rise, Climate
Change and Water Resources: Effects
1. What effect does warming the lower atmosphere have on the hydrological cycle? Why? In
general, how does this affect dry regions? Wet regions? What mechanisms might lead to
deviations from this general pattern?
2. Name one regions that does not follow the wet gets wetter pattern and is likely to experience
strong intensification of heat and water stress.
3. What are the key contributors to sea level rise? Which of these is more difficult to predict?
4. If warming is limited to 2°C what is the projected sea level rise by 2100? In a 4°C world?
5. How does sea level rise differ by latitude? Can you explain the reason for this difference?
6. For scenarios of 4°C + warming a further decrease in ocean pH of 0.3 is predicted. This is
equivalent to a ____% increase in acidity.
7. Does the degree and rate of observed ocean acidification have an precedent in the geological
past? How does ocean warming impact the effect of acidification on calcifying species?
8. How does ocean warming relate to warming on land?

World Bank. 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World
Must Be Avoided. Washington, DC. © World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11860
Assigned reading #3:
Chapter 4 – South East Asia, pages 65-70

1. Models predict moderate mean surface warming relative to the global average over land and moderate
changes in average rainfall for South East Asia. What might be the reason for this?
2. Given the relatively moderate projected changes in average rainfall and temperature in this region,
explain why climate change still poses a very strong threat in this region.
3. How do warming sea surface temperatures affect the characteristics of tropical cyclones?
4. Describe some of the risks associated with rising sea levels in South East Asia.
5. Name some of the slow-onset impacts and some of the sudden-onset impacts of climate change in South
East Asia. Give an example of how these types of impacts may act in concert to weaken agricultural
productivity and food security in the region.
6. Cora reef dieback is projected at levels of warming well below 4°C. Name three of the drivers impacting
coral reef health. What are some of the potential negative consequences of coral reef dieback?
7. Discuss the major threats to river deltas in South East Asia and how this might affect food security in the
region.
8. What are some of the health impacts of rising sea levels and intensified tropical cyclones.
9. Why are the effects of heat extremes particularly pronounced in urban areas?

World Bank. 2012. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World
Must Be Avoided. Washington, DC. © World Bank.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11860
Getting more information

Sources – Many
 IPCC, Universities, LEAF, ADB, Mekong River Commission, USAID
publications, World Bank publications, US Global Change
Research Program, NOAA Climate Service, NOAA Regional
Climate Centers, State and Province Climatologists, Forest
Service Research , Other federal research agencies….
 Your Staff and their Experience
 Local farmers, water supply managers, and so on
 Check the credibility of the information source
Online course resource

https://www.coursera.org/course/globalwarming
References

Blasing, T.J. (February 2013), Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations , doi:

10.3334/CDIAC/atg.032  , on CDIAC 2013.

Bond, G. G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M., Showers, W.,
Hoffmann, S., Lotti-Bond, R., Hajdas, I., and Bonani, G.: Persistent Solar Influence
on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene, Science, 294, 2130–2136, 2001.

Gates, D. M.. 1993. Climate change and its biological consequences. Sinauer
Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts.

IPCC. 2013. AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
 
References

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf

Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E. (1997). "Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy

Budget". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association 78: 197-208.

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific
decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, pp 1069-1079.
References

Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N. I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile,M. Bender, J. Chappellaz,M. Davisk, G.
Delaygue, M. Delmotte, V. M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V. Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pe´ pin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzmank
& M. Stievenard. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core,
Antarctica. Nature, 399, 429-436.

Rogers, R., and L. Evans. 2011. World carbon dioxide emissions data by country: China speeds ahead of the
rest. The Guardian. January 31, 2011. http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world-
carbon-dioxide-emissions-country-data-co2#data

Steffensen, J.P., Andersen, K.K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K.,
Hansson, M., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S.O., Rothlisberger, R.,
Ruth, U., Stauffer, B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Sveinbjı´rnsdottir, A.E., Svensson, A., White, J.W.C., 2008.
High resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years. Science 321,
680–684.

Taylor, K.C., Mayewski, P.A., Alley, R.B., Brook, E.J., Gow, A.J., Grootes, P.M., Meese, D.A., Saltzman, E.S.,
Severinghaus, J.P., Twickler, M.S., White, J.W.C., Whitlow, S., Zielinski, G.A., 1997. The Holocene-Younger
Dryas transition recorded at Summit, Greenland. Science 278, 825–827.
 Sample test questions
Which of these is NOT a greenhouse gas? How long can carbon dioxide stay in
o Carbon dioxide the atmosphere?
o Water vapor o A: <1–1,000+ years
o Oxygen
o B: 6–12 months
o Methane
o o C: 1,000–2,000 years
Nitrous oxide
In 2005, what was the approximate atmospheric CO2 Needs resolution -- sources do not agree, nunaced.

level, in ppm? Fill in. Which of the following is an important

What is the difference between weather and climate? function of Earth’s atmosphere?
o Weather is the current condition of the atmosphere in terms of o Insulates the surface against temperature extremes
temperature, precipitation, wind, and so on. Climate is the statistical o Maintains a hydrologic cycle and fresh water
description of weather - such as averages and variation -- over some time supplies
period.
o Supplies the oxygen for life
o Climate is controlled by geologic forces; weather is controlled by wind
patterns. o Screens out much of the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation
o Climate is non-cyclical; weather is cyclical. o All of the above
o Climate is inherently certain; weather is inherently certain.
Approximately how much cooler
The influence on climate of carbon dioxide is mainly due
would the Earth be, on average, if
to its ability to absorb:
o Water
there were no natural greenhouse
o Infrared radiation effect (in either 0C or 0F?). Fill in.
o Helium
o Argon
o Free ions
Instructor Review of Materials

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 What is missing?
 How did you, or would you, modify the materials to make
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 Please share your experience and modifications here:
climatecurriculum@googlegroups.com