Statistika Psikologi

09
Modul ke:

Uji Hipotesis

Fakultas
Psikologi Niah Maretno Sari, M.Psi.,Psikolog

Program Studi
Psikologi
THE ROLE OF INFERENTIAL STATISTICS IN RESEARCH

• a random sample may be more or less representative of a population because, just by the luck of the draw,
the sample may contain too many high scores or too many low scores relative to the population. Because
the sample is not perfectly representative, it reflects sampling error, and so the sample mean does not
equal the population mean.
• Researchers perform inferential statistics in every study, because it is always possible that we are being
misled by sampling error so that the relationship we see in our sample data is not the relationship found in
nature
• Previously we’ve said that inferential statistics are used to decide if sample data represent a particular
relationship in the population.
SETTING UP INFERENTIAL PROCEDURES

• Creating the Experimental Hypotheses

• Experimental hypotheses describe the predicted relationship we may or
may not find.
• One hypothesis states that we will demonstrate the predicted relationship
(manipulating the independent variable will work as expected). The other
hypothesis states that we will not demonstrate the predicted relationship
(manipulating the independent variable will not work as expected).
• Sometimes we expect a relationship, but we are not sure whether scores
will increase or decrease as we change the independent variable. This leads
to a two-tailed statistical procedure. A two-tailed test is used when we
predict a relationship but do not predict the direction in which scores will
change
• “men and women differ in creativity” or that “higher anxiety levels will
alter participants’ test scores.”
• At other times, we do predict the direction in which the dependent scores
will change. A one-tailed test is used when we predict the direction in
which scores will change. We may predict that as we change the
independent variable, the dependent scores will only increase, or we may
predict that they will only decrease. Notice that a one-tailed test occurs
when we predict which group will have the higher dependent scores. For
example, we have a one-tailed test if we predict that “men are more
creative than women” or that “higher anxiety levels will lower test scores.”
• Creating the Statistical Hypotheses
• Statistical hypotheses describe the population parameters that the sample
data represent if the predicted relationship does or does not exist. The two
statistical hypotheses are the alternative hypothesis and the null
hypothesis.
• The Alternative Hypothesis
• The alternative hypothesis describes the population parameters that the
sample data represent if the predicted relationship exists. The alternative
hypothesis is always the hypothesis of a difference; it says that changing
the independent variable produces the predicted difference in the
populations.
• The symbol for the alternative hypothesis is Ha. (The stands for hypothesis
and the subscript a stands for alternative)
• The Null Hypothesis
• The statistical hypothesis corresponding to the experimental hypothesis
that the independent variable does not work as predicted is called the null
hypothesis. The null hypothesis describes the population parameters that
the sample data represent if the predicted relationship does not exist. It is
the hypothesis of “no difference,” saying that changing the independent
variable does not produce the predicted difference in the population.
Setting Up the Sampling Distribution for a Two-Tailed Test

• The mean of the sampling distribution always equals the of the µ raw
score population that says we are representing.
• A sampling distribution always describes the situation when Ho is true.
Here it shows the sample means that occur when we are drawing samples
from the IQ population where µ is 100. Any sample mean not equal to 100
occurs solely because of sampling error—the luck of the draw that
produced an unrepresentative sample.
Determine the size and location region of rejection
• Choose alpha : Recall that the criterion probability defines sample means as
being too unlikely to represent the underlying raw score population, which in
turn defines the size of the region of rejection. The symbol for the criterion
probability is α, the Greek letter alpha. Usually the criterion is 0.05 , so in
code, a α = 0.05.
• Locate the region of rejection : Recall that the region of rejection may be in
both tails or only one tail of the sampling distribution. To decide, consider
your hypotheses. With our pill, we created two-tailed hypotheses for a two-
tailed test because we predicted the pill might raise or lower IQ scores. We
will be correct if our sample mean is either above 100 or below 100 and we
can reject that it represents the no-pill population.
• Determine the critical value: We’ll abbreviate the critical value of z as z crit .
With α = 0.05 , the total region of rejection is 0.05 , of the curve, so the
region in each tail 0.025 is of the curve. From the z-table, a z-score of 1.96
Computing Z
Interpreting significant result
• Significant does not mean important or impressive. Significant indicates
that our results are unlikely to occur if the predicted relationship does not
exist in the population. Therefore, we imply that the relationship found in
the experiment is “believable,” representing a “real” relationship found in
nature, and that it was not produced by sampling error from the situation
in which the relationship does not exist.
THE ONE-TAILED TEST

• Say that we had developed a “smart” pill, so the experimental hypotheses

are (1) the pill makes people smarter by increasing IQ scores, or (2) the pill
does not make people smarter. For the statistical hypotheses, start with the
alternative hypothesis: People without the pill produce µ = 100, so if the
pill makes them smarter, their will be greater than 100. Therefore, our
alternative hypothesis is that our sample represents this population, so
Ha: µ > 100. On the other hand, if the pill does not work as predicted,
either it will leave IQ scores unchanged or it will decrease them (making
people dumber). Then µ will either equal 100 or be less than 100.
Therefore, our null hypothesis is that our sample represents one of these
populations, so Ho µ < 100.
The One-Tailed Test for Decreasing Scores
ERRORS IN STATISTICAL DECISION MAKING

• Type I Errors: Rejecting H0 When H0 Is True

• Sometimes, the variables we investigate are not related in nature, so Ho is
really true. When in this situation, if we obtain data that cause us to reject
Ho , then we make an error. A Type I error is defined as rejecting Ho when
Ho is true. In other words, we conclude that the independent variable
works when it really doesn’t.

• Type II Errors: Retaining H0 When H0 Is False

• It is also possible to make a totally different kind of error. Sometimes the
variables we investigate really are related in nature, and so Ho really is
false. When in this situation, if we obtain data that cause us to retain Ho ,
then we make a Type II error. A Type II error is defined as retaining Ho
when is false (and is true). In other words, here we fail to identify that the
independent variable really does work.