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Countdown to eDay!
By Kevin G. Coleman
The world has awakened to a new threat. China, Russia and North Korea's test of a cyber weapon, Iran's cyber weapon ambitions, the renewed defense industry’s emphasis on the use of computers as a weapon have all combined to accelerate the rate of development of what I’ve called “the most destructive weapon on the planet.” The proliferation of cyber weapons has exploded and estimates suggest that over 70% of countries will have at least a basic level cyber weapon by the end of 2008.
The China Syndrome
I testified on cyber crime.A Bit of History Back in 1998 when I was Chief Strategist of Netscape. Chris Dodd asked me. “Does our Defense Department know about you?” . That was when I began to research what we are now calling cyber warfare. At one point in my live demo. espionage and security before a joint Congressional Caucus. I became aware of an international movement that was designed to create software that could be used for criminal activity as well as disrupt Internet activity.
S.Cyber Warfare & Cyber Terrorism Cyber Warfare and Terrorism is one of the fifteen modalities of UnRestricted Warfare (URW) also called asymmetric warfare. ideological. against computers and/or networks. political or similar objectives. with the intention to cause harm or further social. religious. or the threat thereof. – Cyber Warfare & Terrorism • “The premeditated use of disruptive activities. Army Cyber Operations and Cyber Terrorism Handbook .” rce: U. Or to intimidate any person in furtherance of such objectives.
Customs and Border Protection Assistant Commissioner for the Office of International Trade Dan Baldwin and Director-General Robert Verrue.S. 6 . which took place last November and December.U.Counterfeit Hardware • February 2008 . European Commission Tax and Customs Directorate.000 counterfeit integrated circuits and computer network components bearing more than 40 different trademarks. today announced the results of Operation Infrastructure. • The Operation resulted in the seizure of more than 360.
Counterfeit Hardware February 2008 The Feds have confiscated more than $75 million of counterfeit Cisco networking gear. In most cases the fake gear was made in China and imported into the United States where unethical resellers passed it off as legit. code named Operation Cisco Raider. . The announcement is in a progress report on a two-year-old investigation.
• There are about 93 billion emails are sent per day that will not go through. • Millions of VoIP calls per day will not go through. . more than half say they go online every day or several times a week to perform those activities. • Over 200 million Google searches per day will not get done.Impact of a Cyber War • Of those who do perform what we consider “daily” activities online. • A reported 33% of Internet users say they make eCommerce transactions daily.
• Some 20% of online sports fans check sports scores daily. • Some 25% of the online weather bugs will check weather daily. • Some 40% of Internet users who get the news online say they log on daily.Impact of a Cyber War • Some 88% of online user say the Internet plays a role in their daily routines. .
.000 respondents to the poll.Org and the Technolytics Institute with nearly 1.S.A Recent Poll How prepared is the U. for a cyber attack? 43% Not Prepared Very Prepared Somewhat Prepa 47% 10% Source: A collaborative effort between DefenseTech.
Impact of a Cyber War INTELLIGEN .
Impact of a Cyber War Billion U.S. Retail eCommerce Sales That’s $425 million a day. $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 .
youtube. The TV channel CT2 said that they received frantic phone calls from viewers who thought a nuclear war had started.Cyber Media Warfare One can only imagine the psychological impact on the viewers that witnessed this prank.com/watch?v=MzaN2x8qXcM . http://www.
Think About This • What if the Internet went away: – For a day – A week – A month • No eMails • No BlackBerrys • No eCommerce Virtual business services of all sorts. as would many . accounting. payroll and even sales would come to a halt.
8 billion by 2010. – Almost two-thirds of large organizations in North America will be using VoIP products and services by year end. – Consumer VoIP adoption will drive wholesale VoIP revenues to $3. . Revenues are projected to reach $2 billion. and every month increases penetration into business. – Small Business VoIP adoption will grow to 3 million by 2010. government and the consumer sectors.The worst thing to do There is no doubt today that VoIP is taking over the telecom market. You are putting all your eggs in one basket.
and it can target anywhere in the world. it can be launched from anywhere in the world.Cyber Weapons Proliferation The cost to develop this new class of weapon is within reach of any country. We now have a weapon that can strike at the speed of light. This briefing will provide an understanding of the current state of cyber weapons. current defenses and a unique look at what the future cyber warfare scenario might encompass. any criminal organization and tens-of-millions of individuals The raw materials needed to construct cyber weapons are not restricted and are widely available. . any extremist group.
What does EPFC and TEDs stand for? 2. How many of you address CBRNE in you contingency plans? 3.Your Cyber Attack IQ Test If I can give you three pieces of intelligence you did not have before. Why should your organizations have supply-chain integrated into the security program? . would you agree this briefing provided value? 1.
000 .5 to $2 billion What does a stealth fighter cost? $80 to $120 millio $1 What does an cruise missile cost? to $2 million What does a cyber weapon cost? $300 to $50.Modern Weapons Economics What does a stealth bomber cost? $1.
Find the Weapons Facility Nuclear Weapons Facility Cyber Weapons Facility Where’s the Cyber Weapons Facility? 19 .
Cyber Weapons Proliferation .
000 websites in a single assault. RBN’s cyber weapons are very popular and powerful. Every time a copy of the cyber weapon is generated. The modularization of delivery platform and malicious instructions is a growing design in cyber weapons. it looks different to the anti-virus engines and it often goes undetected. u know RBN leases use/capacity on their 150 million node BotNe . In June 2007. one was used by a single person to attack and compromise over 10.Cyber Arms Dealers RBN and their support units provide scripts and executables to make cyber weapons undetectable by antivirus software.
Cyber Weapons Evolution High Basic Research Applied Research Early Adopters Rapid Advancement Significant Threat Advanced Weapons Low Basic Weapons 1994 1998 2002 2004 2008 2012 2016 22 .
we can put into context the evolving architecture for cyber weapons. low-cost.Interesting Quote NATO's cyber defense chief has warned that computerbased terrorism poses the same threat to national security as a missile attack.“ Using this as a framework. . It is almost an ideal weapon that nobody can ignore. He went on to say that “Cyber war can become a very effective global problem because it is low-risk. highly effective and easily globally deployable.
. As it turns out. followed by a navigations system (tells it how to get to the target) and finally the payload (the component that causes harm). the same three elements now appear in the design of cyber weapons.Cyber Weapons Design Cyber Weapon Architecture A missile is comprised of three basic elements. The first is a delivery vehicle (rocket engine).
Counterfeit hardware. Emails with malicious code embedded or attached is one mechanism of delivery. . Hacking is a manually delivery vehicle that allows a cyber soldier to place the malicious payload on a target computer.Cyber Weapons Design Cyber Weapon – Delivery Vehicle There are numerous methods of delivering cyber weapons to their targets. system or network. Another delivery vehicle is web sites that can have malicious links and downloads. software and electronic components can also be used as delivery vehicles for cyber weapons.
. These security exposures in operating systems or other software or applications allow for exploitation and compromise. it allows the malicious payload to reach a specific point inside a computer.Cyber Weapons Design Cyber Weapon – Delivery Vehicle Just as a navigation system guides a missile. Exploitation of these vulnerabilities may allow unauthorized remote access and control over the system. Vulnerabilities in software and computer system configurations provide entry points for the payload of a cyber weapon. system or network. System vulnerabilities are the primary navigation systems used in cyber weapons.
Cyber Weapons Design Cyber Weapon – Delivery Vehicle The payload of a missile is sometimes called a warhead and is packed with some type of explosive. A “bot” (a component of a botnet) is a great example of a payload that allows remote use of the computer by an unauthorized individual or organization. Finally. It can also be a program that begins to ease or alter information stored on the system. . In a cyber weapon the payload could be a program that copies information off of the computer and sends it to an external source. it can allow remote access so that the computer can be controlled or directed over the internet.
As one software or system vulnerability is discovered. This not only creates flexibility but also significantly increase the productivity of the cyber weapons developers. reported and patched. The architecture creates reusability and reconfiguration of all three components. . that component can be removed and replaced while the other two components are still viable.Cyber Weapons Design Cyber Weapon – Architecture This three element architecture demonstrates how advanced and sophisticated cyber weapons are becoming.
Whether the attack is focused on stealing our business and technology secrets. disrupting our financial systems or worse. terrorists and extremists around the world are developing and implementing cyber warfare doctrine. strategies and weapons. .Conclusion Our nation is increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks that could have catastrophic effects on critical infrastructure as well as severely damage the country’s economy. the threat is real. Countries.
The threat is eminent. In the cyber arms race we cannot finish anyplace but first. but the cyber arms race has just begun. We must rapidly develop offensive and defensive cyber weapons capabilities as well as the military doctrine and regeulations necessary to govern their use. .Conclusion The Cold War may be over.
QUESTIONS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 31 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? .
technolytics. The Technolytics Institute 4017 Washington Road Mail Stop #348 McMurray. He has briefed defense contractors and other organization on cyber warfare and is a highly published professional covering cyber security and writes regularly for Eye Spy Magazine and authors the Cyber Warfare Blog for DefenTech. Coleman is a Senior Fellow and Strategic Management Consultant with the Technolytics Institute.Biography Kevin G.com . He is the former Chief Strategist of Netscape and was a member for the Science and Technology Advisory Panel at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab. PA 15317 P 412-818-7656 F 412-291-1193 I www.com E kgcolman@technolytics .org.
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