Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan

Rahimullah Yusufzai
 Ashraf Ghani & Karzai
• During President Ashraf Ghani’s June 27-28
visit to Pakistan, he & PM Imran Khan
pledged to forget past, start new era of
cooperation. Isn’t first such pledge or last,
but relations continue to be unfriendly.
• Ghani once said Afghanistan, Pakistan aren’t
brothers, just neighbours. During recent visit,
said Afghanistan, Pakistan tied by bonds of
brotherhood. If relations improving, can it be
sustained if Ghani re-elected, what happens
if Abdullah wins or polls result causes chaos?
• Ghani earlier alleged Pakistan in undeclared
war against Afghanistan, source of instability.
Visited Pakistan in Nov 2014 & Dec 2015, but
refused to visit next 3 years due to poor
relations. CEO Dr Abdullah never came in 5
years despite numerous invitations.
• Hamid Karzai (president for nearly 14 years)
said Afghanistan/Pakistan conjoined twins,
thus inseparable. “Pakistan is brother, India is
friend.” “Durand Line is a line of hatred
between 2 brothers.” “Visited Pakistan 20
times, every time was asked to recognize
Durand Line as international border.”
• Slight improvement in relations since early
2018. Pakistan initiative to set up APAPPS
with 5 working groups. Blame-game stopped,
but restarted with Ghazni attack. Hopes
raised with new govt in Pakistan. Lot of
friendly talk, less action. People-to-people
contacts good, but security issues dominant.
 Baggage of history
• Cannot bury past (Durand Line, Pakhtunistan,
safe havens both sides). Need to look to
future, stop blame-game, focus on bilateral
ties, cooperate against ISIS, promote peace
process, resolve less contentious issues
(trade, water sharing, Afghan refugees).
• Strategic depth idea irrelevant (Gen Aslam
Beg). Rather Pakistan gave strategic depth to
Afghanistan as economic lifeline, Afghan
refugees. Unwise decisions - Gen Zia backed
hardline, fundamentalist groups. Musharraf
said Pak policy is pro-Pashtun, alienated non-
Pashtuns.
• Afghanistan claims it isn’t treated as an
independent, sovereign state. Islamabad
believes Kabul doesn’t realize Pakistan’s
sensitivity to India’s role in Afghanistan.
Afghan govt/US say India is stabilizing factor,
Pakistan says it is destabilizing region.
• Due to India-Pakistan hostilities, both try to
befriend Afghanistan, which may have
benefited but also suffered whenever it took
sides. Presently siding with India, not neutral.
Unviable proposal to keep Afghanistan
neutral (was NAM’s founder member.)
• Mistrust soon after Pakistan’s independence.
In Sept 1947 Afghanistan only country to
oppose Pakistan’s UN membership by raising
issues of Pakhtunistan & Pashtun, Baloch
rights. Aug 31 declared Pashtunistan Day.
Support Pashtunistan when Afghan state is
strong. (now trying to exploit PTM factor)
• Border clashes, but never went to war.
Pakistan embassy in Kabul, consulates in
Herat, Jalalabad, Kandahar attacked, few
staffers killed. No attack on Afghan
diplomatic missions. Until 1973, Pakistan
showed restraint, but then (Bhutto, Babar)
started backing dissident Afghans. Tit-for-tat
continues to this day.
• Sympathy for Afghanistan worldwide due to
its suffering from conflict for 4 decades.
Afghan/US govts looking for scapegoat as
failed to bring peace, stability. Cannot push
out Taliban from half of country, easy to
blame Pakistan, esp due to its past policies.
• Pakistan securing itself through military ops,
border management, fencing at huge cost,
casualties (900 kms done, complete by early
2020), 480 kms trench in Balochistan. Hopes
raised due to peace talks, but can
Afghanistan become stable. (Another Fata
now across the border!)
• Pakistani militants’ safe havens in
Afghanistan. No precise figures (8-9000)
based near Pak border. Earlier Kabul in state
of denial but no longer as Fazlullah, Khan
Said Sajna, APS mastermind Khalifa Omar
Mansoor, Hafiz Saeed Orakzai of ISIS all killed
in US drone strikes in Afghanistan.
 Trade issues
• Drop in Pak-Afghan trade ($2.5b to $1.2b)
due to poor relations, border closures,
drawdown of Nato forces. Pakistan affected
more as trade largely in its favour. Less
transit trade, increase in smuggling. TAPI,
CASA-1000 creating hope, CPEC extension to
Afghanistan (good for under-developed KP,
ex-Fata, Balochistan).
• 1965 Transit trade agreement served well
until 2010 when renegotiated. Now 9 years
passed but not renewed. Afghanistan wants
to include India in new agreement, Pakistan
opposed to it. Wagha/Attari issue could be
resolved to help Afghanistan.
• President Ghani reducing dependence on
Pakistan, opened new trade routes, air
corridors, Iran’s Chabahar seaport with
Indian investment to bypass Pakistan. Still
Pakistan is shortest, least expensive route for
Afghanistan.
• As bilateral trade is in Pakistan’s favour, it has
to remove bottlenecks. Keeping Torkham
border open 24 hours is good move, but lack
of cooperation from Afghan side. 2010
Afghan transit trade agreement not renewed
after 5 years as planned.
 Ties with Taliban
• Despite appeal by Pakistan, Taliban
announced annual spring offensive Al
Khandaq in April. Afghan govt launched
Khalid ops, US had record airstrikes. Increase
in violence after Trump ended peace talks
with Taliban on Sept 8. Focus again on
military operations.
• Shows Pakistan’s diminishing influence on
Taliban as many shifted to Afghanistan
(Finance Commission head Gul Agha, Military
Commission chief Sadar Ibrahim, intelligence
chief Mohammadzai). Others to Iran, Qatar.
Difficult relationship. Refused its request to
agree to ceasefire, talk to Afghan govt. Won’t
act tough as will bring Afghan war to
Pakistan.
• Some Afghan Taliban figures, their families in
Pakistan (Sartaj Aziz). Through them Pakistan
tries to influence Taliban leadership, though
field commanders remain powerful, are
opposed to peace talks with Kabul but
support dialogue with US.
• Afghan conflict threat to region/world.
Power vacuum due to weak Afghan govt
provides space to terrorists/militants (AT, AQ,
ISIS, IMU, Islamic Jehad, ETIM). For Pakistan,
highest number of enemies - TTP, Jamaatul
Ahrar, Hezbul Ahrar, Lashkar-i-Islam, LeJ, ISIS,
AQ. Arms, Drugs, Afghan refugees also pose
challenge for Pakistan & beyond.
 Pakistan’s $1b assistance
• Pak role in rebuilding Afghanistan ($1b
compared to India’s $3b) not highlighted.
Roads, schools, hospitals, training, education
scholarships. Karzai, Ghani never inaugurated
any Pak-funded project while proudly did
Indian. Pak hosting, educating, providing
livelihood means to Afghan refugees (2.7m).
• Completed projects – rebuilt Rahman Baba
School & Hostel Kabul, Liaqat Ali Khan
Engineering Faculty, Balkh University, Mazar-
i-Sharif, Allama Iqbal Faculty of Humanities,
Kabul University, Sir Syed Post-Graduate
Faculty of Sciences, Nangarhar University &
60-bed Nishtar Kidney Centre in Jalalabad.
• 200-bed Mohammad Ali Jinnah Hospital in
Kabul opened on April 20, 2019, costing
$24m. Ongoing projects - Torkham-Jalalabad
75 kms second road costing Rs7b (one road
already built by Pakistan) & 100-bed Naeb
Aminullah Khan Logari Hospital in Logar.
• Pakistan providing 3,000 scholarships to
Afghan students for study in professional
colleges, universities plus 3,000 more. Also
educating thousands of Afghan refugees
children. Over 30,000 Afghans graduated
from Pakistan now serving in Afghanistan.
 Grievances galore
• Afghanistan’s position - Ghani took initiative
to improve relations but didn’t get support
from Pakistan. Sent 6 Afghan cadets despite
opposition at home to train in Pakistan at
PMA Kakul, took unilateral action against
Pakistani militants, but Islamabad didn’t act
against irreconcilable Afghan Taliban.
• Pakistani grievances - sanctuaries of Pakistani
Taliban in Afghanistan, Afghan opposition to
border management, state-sponsored
propaganda against Pakistan, ISI-NDS MoU
not implemented by Afghan govt, no real
Afghan interest in repatriating its citizens,
resolving water issues.
• Kabul alleged 32 training camps in Pakistan.
Islamabad offered joint inspection on both
sides in cooperation with US. Kabul gave list
of 85 Afghan Taliban/Haqqanin hiding in
Pakistan, Islamabad gave list of 75 Pakistani
militants based in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan tried to help by getting a Fatwa in
Jan 2018 by 1829 Pakistani Ulema (Paigham-
i-Pakistan) against suicide bombing, misuse
of territory against another country, but
Ghani said it is Pakistan-specific, should
include Afghanistan.
• Kabul rejected Islamabad’s 2011 offer for
strategic partnership agreement like India.
Refused offer to equip/train one ANA
brigade. Lukewarm response to train Afghan
army officers (got 6, India 1100 officers).
Kabul didn’t implement ISI/NDS MoU.
• Height of distrust. Kabul alleged Islamabad
pushed terrorists into Afghanistan thr Zarb-e-
Azb, making security situation worse in
Afghanistan. Afghans say Pak closes border
to let Afghan fresh fruits, vegetable rot.
Allege Pak nuclear bomb threat to
Afghanistan & Fata merger, fencing meant to
solve Durand Line issue once for all.
 Some positivity
• Positive points in Pak-Afghan relations - King
Zahir Shah told Pakistan not to worry about
western border with Afghanistan in 1965
when India & Pakistan went to war.
Afghanistan had historic ties with India but
its sympathies in 1965 & 1971 wars were
with Pakistan.
• Thousands of Pakistanis working in
Afghanistan, most Afghans in bureaucracy &
int organizations are Pakistan-educated, most
Afghans seeking treatment abroad come to
Pakistan, Pakistan is Afghanistan’s biggest
trade partner. Pakistan issues more visas to
Afghans than rest of world combined. Over
10,000 Afghans enter Pakistan daily.
• Unlike past when Pakistan used resources to
assist Afghan armed groups and warlords, it
is now investing in Afghan people. Pakistan
needs to befriend all Afghans instead of a
particular ethnic group (Pashtuns) or militant
faction (Taliban).
• Pakistan’s western border with Afghanistan
didn’t pose any major security challenge
despite occasional, manageable flare-ups
until US invasion (largely peaceful during
Soviet occupation). Focus always on
international border with India, LoC in J&K.
Now concern about 2-front threat.
 Pakistan’s losses
• US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan since 2001
didn’t bring stability, instead gave Taliban
reason to declare ‘jihad’ to fight foreigners,
non-Muslims. 430 US drone strikes in
Pakistan, cross-border raids (Salala,
Mohmand, martyring 24 Pakistani soldiers)
even though Pakistan shared intelligence,
provided airbases, allowed Nato supplies.
• Terrorism hit Pakistan in a big way, still
suffering. Thousands of Pakistanis radicalized
due to Afghan war, got trained in use of
sophisticated arms, bomb-making. 15 major
mil ops to fight local, foreign militants,
causing displacement, suffering, having
political fallout (PTM, foreign interference).
• Pakistan losses in war against terror huge.
Over 80,000 citizens martyred, economic
losses $128b but got $33b only from US,
mostly Coalition Support Fund for money
spent by Pakistan on counter-terrorism ops.
• Afghan refugees 2.7m. Remarkable
hospitality, no strife or forced repatriation,
working all over Pakistan even though caused
social, political, security problems. No pull
factor as Afghan govt unable to provide
security, housing, education, healthcare. 74%
born in Pakistan, offer of Pakistan citizenship
non-starter.
• 85% drugs (opium, heroin) produced in
Afghanistan. 50% enter Pakistan being a
major smuggling route onward to Iran, by
sea. (Narcotics Control Minister). Pakistan
managed to control opium-poppy cultivation,
but unable to check trafficking.
• Unresolved issues – Durand Line border not
recognized by Kabul (never took it to int
forum as its case is weak), sharing of river
Kabul water. Afghan transit trade, trade with
India via Pakistan, Pakistan’s access to
Central Asian republics via Afghanistan. Also
issues of safe havens & Afghan refugees.
• Pakistan as bigger country showed patience
despite Afghan provocations. Unlike
Afghanistan, no state-sponsored propaganda.
Hoping Afghanistan becomes a friend or at
least neutral in Pak-India disputes, doesn’t go
deeper into India’s camp.
 Pakistan as peacemaker
• Pakistan facilitating Afghan peace process.
Emerged as peacemaker (recently got
Taliban/US delegations to meet in
Islamabad). Peace in Afghanistan will
contribute to Pakistan’s stability. Shouldn’t
take sides in Afghan conflict as it contributes
to anti-Pakistan sentiment. One can change
friends, not neighbours.
• Pakistan has to keep offering training to
Afghan military officers, police, reiterate offer
of strategic partnership agreement first made
in 2011 despite Afghanistan’s refusal (India
has an edge). Offer more educational
scholarships, support medical tourism.
• Many Afghans ask what does Pakistan want
in Afghanistan. Need to explain better
Pakistan’s policy on Afghanistan. Pakistanis
will also want to know what Afghanistan
wants from Pakistan. Pakistan earlier said
want friendly Afghan govt, Afghans took it as
a client, pro-Pak govt. Now Pak says want
stable govt.
• With peace accord between Taliban-US
within reach, Pakistan should ensure it gets
its concerns addressed. 1) Pakistani terrorist
groups & their global allies don’t use Afghan
soil to attack, destabilize Pakistan. 2. India
isn’t allowed to misuse Afghan territory to
threaten Pakistan.
• After over 4 decades of conflict, first
serious/sustained effort made in July 2018 to
restore peace in Afghanistan. Taliban-US
peace talks raised hopes, but Trump scrapped
negotiations. More talks, deals needed to
bring durable peace.
• Taliban see it as victory as forced US to talk to
them directly in absence of ‘puppet’ Afghan
govt. For US, won’t be a bad deal as Trump
wants to bring his troops home (termed
Afghan war useless, ridiculous). Still
superpower US unable to achieve military
solution in 18 years with 150,000 Nato
troops, airpower.
• Will Taliban accept democracy, form political
party, contest polls. Broad Afghan,
international support for peace, but there
will be spoilers (non-state groups like Islamic
State since 2014 (Daesh), IMU, al-Qaeda,
ETIM, TTP, certain countries).
• Major reason is foreign intervention (Soviet
Union in Dec 1979, US in Oct 2001). Got
involved in internal disputes, took sides,
installed govt of choice. Foreign interference
by big & regional powers, Afghan warlords
fought for own interest & interest of
outsiders.
• War became business, war economy
flourished. State too weak to enforce rule of
law. Bad governance, gun-running, drug-
trafficking, corruption (Afghanistan always
among 5 most corrupt countries in world
(Transparency International).
• Democracy introduced, but trust in
politicians low. All 7 elections for president,
parliament rigged. Political, judicial system
unresponsive to people’s needs. Economic
issues, unemployment causing social unrest,
hopeless Afghans seeking to go abroad, join
militias.
• US refusing to do nation-building, focusing on
military actions, spending $45b a year. As
SIGAR reported, wastage of resources on
failed projects. UK, US assigned to control
poppy-cultivation, drug-trafficking, but more
drugs now ($3b).
• US could have talked to Taliban earlier. Until
early 2018, Trump threatening to ‘finish’
Taliban. Afghans suffered the most. 60
Afghans (soldiers, cops, civilians, Taliban) on
average die daily. President Ghani said since
2014 when he took over, 45,000 Afghan
security men killed.
• Ghani claims 20 global terrorist groups
operating in Afghanistan. Even if on high side
(aiming to get foreign assistance, keep US
engaged), pose challenge as targetting not
only Afghan state but also others (Pakistan,
Iran, China, Russia, US). Many are Pakistan-
focused so it has a major stake in peaceful
Afghanistan.
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