Consequence Analysis-

Dispersion Model
Dr. S. P. Sivapirakasam
Professor
Department of Mechanical Engineering
NIT, Trichy
Introduction
• A dispersion model is used to describe how the material is transported downwind and dispersed to
some concentration levels.
• During an accident, process equipment can release toxic materials quickly and in significant enough
quantities to spread in dangerous clouds throughout a plant site and the local community.
• Serious accidents (such as Bhopal) emphasize the importance of planning for emergencies and of
designing plants to minimize the occurrence and consequences of a toxic release.
• Toxic release and dispersion models are an important part of the consequence modeling procedure.
• From the result obtained from dispersion model are used to
(1) developing an emergency response plan with the surrounding community
(2) developing engineering modifications to eliminate the source of the release
(3) enclosing the potential release and adding appropriate vent scrubbers or other vapor removal
equipment
(4) reducing inventories of hazardous materials to reduce the quantity released
(5) adding area monitors to detect incipient leaks and providing block valves and engineering
controls to eliminate hazardous levels of spills and leaks.
Dispersion Model

Dispersion Model
• It describes how vapors are transported downwind of a release.
• Three different kinds of vapor cloud behaviour and release time models are there.

Vapour cloud behaviour Release-time mode

Neutrally buoyant gas Instantaneous (Puff)

Positively buoyant gas Continuous (Plumes)

Dense buoyant gas Time varying continuous

Conti…..
Neutrally buoyant gas
• A neutrally buoyant gas has almost the same density as air.
• Neutrally buoyant gases do not have any intrinsic movement of either up or down.
• Gases cloud are driven by wind or artificial air stream.
• Neutrally buoyant gas clouds mix extremely quickly with surrounding atmosphere due to
turbulence and vortexes
Positively buoyant gas
• Positively buoyant gas having density less than that of air at ambient temperature.
• So positively buoyant gas float above air.
Dense buoyant gas
• Dense buoyant gas having density more than that of air at ambient temperature.
• So once released these types of gases come to surface of ground.
Puff Model

Puff Model
• It is made for instantaneous release from the source.
• In the down wind direction the released gas getting dispersed
• For the puff model a typical example is the sudden release of a fixed amount of material because
of the rupture of a storage vessel. A large vapor cloud is formed that moves away from the
rupture point
Plume Model

Plume Model
• Release which coming from a source continuously in the down wind direction.
• This keeps on dispersing on the downwind side in the larger and larger area.
• For the plume model a typical example is the continuous release of gases from a smokestack. A
steady-state plume is formed downwind from the smokestack.
Factors Affecting Dispersion
• Wind speed
• Atmospheric condition
• Ground condition
• Height of release above ground
• Initial momentum of the released material
1. Wind Speed
• Any emitted gas is initially diluted with passage of air.
• Emitted gas is then carried forward faster
 In this process, it also gets diluted faster by large quantity of air.
• Wind speed and direction of wind influences the release significantly
 Wind speed and direction can be obtained from wind rose diagram.
Wind Rose Diagram
• It is a plot for a specific region which shows wind speed, direction and relative frequency.
• It comprises of 16 angular wedges, each representing an arc of certain angle segment.
• It contains different coloured segments. Each colour represents specific wind speed when
blowing from a specific direction.
• Overall radius of each wedge represents % of time wind came from that direction during
the period of interest.
Conti…..
Conti…..
•• Near-neutral
  and stable air condition wind profile is given by

• Where P is power co-efficient (p= 0.4 for urban areas, 0.28 for sub-urban and 0.16 for
rural areas).
• is wind speed at 10m elevation and Z is the elevation (in m)
2. Terrain Effects
• Ground conditions and terrain effects influence mechanical mixing at the source.
• It also affects wind profile at different height.
• Presence of trees and buildings increases mixing.
• Open sources like lakes and open ground decreases it
• Figure below shows change in wind speed versus height for a variety of surface
conditions
3. Atmospheric Stability
• Atmospheric stability relates to vertical mixing of the air.
• During the day, the air temperature decreases rapidly with height, encouraging vertical(lift)
motions. At night the temperature decrease is less, resulting in less vertical(lift) motion.
• Temperature profiles for day and night situations are shown in figure below.
Conti…..
•• Sometimes
  an inversion occurs. During an inversion, the temperature increases with height,
resulting in minimal vertical motion. This most often occurs at night because the ground cools
rapidly as a result of thermal radiation.
• Lapes rate is given by
10C/100m
• Where dT is temperature differential and dZ is variation in height
Atmospheric Stability: Classification
• It is classified into 3 groups and 6 different stability classes
3 Group are
Unstable
• For unstable atmospheric conditions the sun heats the ground faster than the heat can be removed so that the air
temperature near the ground is higher than the air temperature at higher elevations, as might be observed in the early
morning hours.
• This results in unstable stability because air of lower density is below air of greater density. This influence of buoyancy
enhances atmospheric mechanical turbulence.
Neutral
• For neutral stability the air above the ground warms and the wind speed increases, reducing the effect of solar energy
input, or insolation.
• The air temperature difference does not influence atmospheric mechanical turbulence
Stable
• For stable atmospheric conditions the sun cannot heat the ground as fast as the ground cools; therefore the temperature
near the ground is lower than the air temperature at higher elevations.
• This condition is stable because the air of higher density is below air of lower density.
• The influence of buoyancy suppresses mechanical turbulence
Conti…..
• The atmospheric conditions are classified according to six different stability classes,
shown in Table of next slide.
• The stability classes depend on wind speed and quantity of sunlight.
• During the day, increased wind speed results in greater atmospheric stability, whereas at
night the reverse is true. This is due to a change in vertical temperature profiles from day
to night and effect of wind speed on Lapes rate.
• A is extremely unstable
• B is moderately unstable.
• C is slightly stable
• D is neutrally stable
• E is slightly stable
• F is moderately stable
• Note : Atmospheric stability during Bhopal gas tragedy was E-F
Conti…..
4. Effect of Release Height
• The release height significantly affects ground-level concentrations.
• As the release height increases, ground-level concentrations are reduced because the plume must
disperse a greater distance vertically. This is shown in Figure below.
5. Initial Momentum of the Released Material

• The buoyancy and momentum of the material released change the effective height of the release.
Figure below demonstrates these effects.
Conti…..
• The momentum of a high-velocity jet will carry the gas higher than the point of release,
resulting in a much higher effective release height.
• If the gas has a density less than air, the released gas will initially be positively buoyant
and will lift upward.
• If the gas has a density greater than air, then the released gas will initially be negatively
buoyant and will slump toward the ground.
• The temperature and molecular weight of the released gas determine the gas density
relative to that of air (with a molecular weight of 28.97).
• For all gases, as the gas travels downwind and is mixed with fresh air, a point will
eventually be reached where the gas has been diluted adequately to be considered
neutrally buoyant.
• At this point the dispersion is dominated by ambient turbulence.
Dispersion models for neutrally and positively buoyant
gas
• Neutrally and positively buoyant gas dispersion models estimate average concentration.
• Predict time profile for flammable toxic gases downwind of the release.
• Plume and puff models are commonly used to model the vapour cloud dispersion.
Plume dispersion model
• Figure below shows plume model of continuous emission of materials from steady state
at height h, H is the effective stack height above the ground level.
• Wind blowing direction is taken along X axis.
Conti……..
•• Average
  released material/ gas concentration is given by
C (x, y, z) =] x exp [] + exp []
• C(x,y,z) is the average concentration (kg/m3)
• H is height of releasing source (m)
• (x,y,z) are distances from the source in downwind, cross wind and vertical direction
respectively (m)
• Q is the release strength (kg/s)
• U is the wind velocity (m/s)
• are dispersion coefficients in Y and Z direction
Dispersion Coefficient
•• The
  dispersion coefficients , , and represent the standard deviations of the concentration in the
downwind, crosswind, and vertical (x, y, z) directions, respectively.
• Values for the dispersion coefficients are easier to obtain experimentally.
• The dispersion coefficients are a function of atmospheric conditions and the distance downwind
from the release
• Concentration of dispersed gas follows a bell shaped Gaussian distribution from the point of
release
• Let the initial concentration is as increases concentration follows a slope like in figure below and
it is a exponential distribution. But if we consider a Y-Z plane such that X axis as centre
concentration along the Y and Z axis of the plane follows a normal distribution.
Conti…..
• Consider a stack releasing gas continuously as shown in figure
Conti…..
•• Let
  the stack height be H
• If we consider a section A-B . The coordinates of O will be (x,0,H)
• If we measure the concentration of the gas in the plane(A-B) along Y axis from points Y1,Y2,……..Yi
we get a normal distribution as shown below

• Where is the distance from X axis where concentration is one standard deviation.
Conti…..
•• Similarly
  If we measure the concentration of the gas in the plane(A-B), along z axis from points
Z1,Z2,……..Zi we get a normal distribution as shown below

• Where is the distance from X axis where concentration is one standard deviation.
Conti…..
• Value of Dispersion coefficient is given as graph or table based on the expirements
Conti…..
Conti…..
•• Case
  1 : Ground level concentration (z=0)
• Case 2 : Ground level centerline concentration (y=z=0)

• Case 3 : Ground level centerline concentration at a releasing height, H=0

Note: In both the cases, X is implicit in the dispersion coefficient.

Maximum Plume Concentration
•• Always
  occur at release point.
• For releases above ground, maximum concentration at ground occurs downwind along the
centerline (X axis)
• Distance at which maximum ground level concentration would occur is given by
•
• Maximum concentration is estimated by
• (
Solved Example
• On an overcast day a stack with an effective height of 60 m is releasing sulfur dioxide at the rate
of 80 g/s. The wind speed is 6 m/s. The stack is located in a rural area. Determine
a. The mean concentration of SO2 on the ground 500 m downwind.
b. The mean concentration on the ground 500 m downwind and 50 m crosswind.
c. The location and value of the maximum mean concentration on ground level directly downwind
Conti…..

• 
Answer a
• This is a continuous release. The ground concentration directly downwind is given by
Equation
• Ground level centerline concentration (y=z=0)
•
• Here x = 500 m, Q= 80 g/s, u= 6 m/s
• From Table 5-1 the stability class is D.
• = 0.08 = 39 m
• = 0.06 = 22.7 m
• Substituting in equation C= 1.45 X
Conti…..
•  b
Answer
• The mean concentration 50 m crosswind is found by using Equation
• Ground level concentration (z=0)

• x=500 m, y= 50 m, H= 60 m, u = 6m/s , Q= 80 g/
• By substituting values
• C = 6.37 X
Answer c
• The location of the maximum concentration is found from Equation
• = = 42.4 m
• From versus distance for D stability, has this value at about 1200 m downwind. From the equation
of substitute x=1200 m , the we get = 88 m. The maximum concentration is determined using
Equation
• (
Conti…..
•• By
  substituting values
• C= 4.18 X
Puff Dispersion Model
•• It
  describes instantaneous release of material
 Example : Sudden release of chemical from a ruptured vessel
 Consequence: large vapour cloud is dispersed from the rupture point.
• Puff model is used to describe a plume
 For example effect of plume of change of wind direction is a dynamic modeling of plumes
• Average concentration is estimated for puff release by the following equation
• C(x,y,z,t)= ] x ] x exp [] + exp []
Case 1
• Puff with Instantaneous Point Source at Ground Level,Coordinates Fixed at Release Point,Constant
Wind Only in x Direction with Constant Velocity u
• C(x,y,0,t)= exp - + + ]
•Case
  2 :The ground-level concentration is given at z =0
• C(x,y,0,t)= exp - + ]

• Case 3 :The ground-level concentration along the x axis is given at y = z = 0:

• C(x,0,0,t)= exp [ - ]
• Case 4 :The center of the cloud is found at coordinates (ut, 0,O). The concentration at the cente
of this moving cloud is given by
• C(ut,0,0,t)=
Conti…..
Solved Example
• Chlorine is used in a particular chemical process. A source model study indicates that for
a particular accident scenario 1.0 kg of chlorine will be released instantaneously. The
release will occur at ground level. A residential area is 500 m away from the chlorine
source. Consider atmospheric stability of F Determine
• a. The time required for the center of the cloud to reach the residential area. Assume a
wind speed of 2 m/s.
• b. The maximum concentration of chlorine in the residential area.
• c. Determine the distance the cloud must travel to disperse the cloud to a maximum
concentration below the TLV-TWA for chlorine of 1 ppm or 3 x 10-6 kg/m3.
• d. Determine the size of the cloud, based on the TLV-TWA for chlorine of 1 ppm or 3 x
10-6 kg/m3 , at a point 5 km directly downwind on the ground.
• Assume in all cases that the chlorine cloud released is neutrally buoyant (which might not
be a valid assumption)
Conti…..
• 
Answer a
• For a distance of 500 m and a wind speed of 2 m/s, the time required for the center of the cloud
to reach the residential area is

Answer b
• The maximum concentration occurs at the center of the cloud directly downwind from the
release. The concentration is given by Equation
• C(ut,0,0,t)=
• = 1 kg
• Corresponding to atmospheric stability F
• =5m
• = 2.2 m
• Substituting in equation we get C = 2.31 X = 2310
Conti…..
• 
Answer c
• C(ut,0,0,t)=
• We have C = 3 X , , = 1 kg
• We have to find out x corresponding to C = 3 X
• By substituting known values in above equation
• ()
• Solving for x by trial and error results in x = 8.0 km downwind
Answer d
• The downwind centerline concentration is given by Equation
• C(x,0,0,t)= exp [ - ]
• The time required for the center of the plume to arrive is
= 2500 s
Conti…..
•• At
  a downwind distance of x = 5 km = 5000 m and assuming F stability conditions
• = 39.2 m
• =9m
• Substituting the numbers provided gives
• = exp [ - ]
• where x has units of meters. The quantity (x - 5000) represents the width of the plume. Solving
for this quantity, we obtain
• X – 5000 = 87.8 m
• So width of plume = 87.8 m
References
• Chemical Process Safety Fundamentals with Applications Third Edition by Daniel A. Crowl and
Joseph F. Louvar
• R. F. Griffiths, "Errorsin the Use of the Briggs ParameterizationforAtmospheric Dispersion
Coefficients," Atmospheric Environment (1994), 28(17)
• G. A. Briggs, Diffusion Estimation for Small Emissions, Report ATDL-106 (Washington, DC: Air
Resources, Atmospheric Turbulence, andDiffusionLaboratory, Environmental Research
Laboratories.
• IF. A. Gifford, "Use of Routine Meteorological Observations for Estimating Atmospheric
Dispersion," Nuclear Safety (1961)
• F. A. Gifford, "Turbulent Diffusion-Typing Schemes: A Review," Nuclear Safety (1976)
• R. E. Britter and J. McQuaid, Workbook on the Dispersion of Dense Gases (Sheffield, United
Kingdom: Health and Safety Executive, 1988
THANK YOU